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Best NBA prop bets Dec. 28: Take overs on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox

A pair of talented point guards headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP-calibre pace, and I believe he can stay hot on the road tonight. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to hit a reasonable scoring target and fade Jerami Grant amid a cold streak.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 28.

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 35.5 points/rebounds (-120)

Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two players leading the charge in the MVP conversation, and he’s certainly playing up to that billing right now.

The superstar point guard has put up blistering numbers over his past 13 games, including:

34.2 points/game
6.3 rebounds/game
53.4 FG%

With an average of 40.5 PR in that span, Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared this line consistently. On Saturday, I don’t expect much resistance from the Charlotte Hornets.

Charlotte’s issues stem more from the offensive side than on defence, but the team is still subpar in terms of defensive rating (20th).

Also, the Hornets allow the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing point guards (6.7), per Betting Pros.

There are better matchups out there for a guy like SGA, but this one’s good enough that I expect he’ll continue wreaking havoc.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 35.5 points/rebounds in nine of his past 13 games.

Quick picks

Grant under 13.5 points (-118): Tonight marks the third time this month that the Portland Trail Blazers will face the Dallas Mavericks. And I’m expecting another dud from Grant.

On Dec. 1, Grant finished with 14 points on 4-of-10 shooting against Dallas. He followed that up with just three points on 1-of-7 shooting on Dec. 23.

Grant is averaging 15.0 PPG on the season, but his recent production has been a step below that.

In 16 games since Nov. 13, Grant has averaged 12.6 PPG and hit this under nine times.

Fox over 25.5 points (-118): The Sacramento Kings are having a weird one, after a questionable firing of head coach Mike Brown, but that shouldn’t affect Fox’s steady production as a scorer.

Fox is on his way to averaging 25-plus points for the fourth time in five seasons.

He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five games.

Furthermore, the Kings’ point guard is a reliable bucket-getter against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll see tonight.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Fox has averaged 30.4 PPG against the Lakers in 11 matchups. He has 26-plus points in all three prior meetings this year.

Picks made at 12:34 p.m. ET on 12/28/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 28: Take overs on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox

A pair of talented point guards headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP-calibre pace, and I believe he can stay hot on the road tonight. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to hit a reasonable scoring target and fade Jerami Grant amid a cold streak.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 28.

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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 35.5 points/rebounds (-124)

Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two players leading the charge in the MVP conversation, and he’s certainly playing up to that billing right now.

The superstar point guard has put up blistering numbers over his past 13 games, including:

34.2 points/game
6.3 rebounds/game
53.4 FG%

With an average of 40.5 PR in that span, Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared this line consistently. On Saturday, I don’t expect much resistance from the Charlotte Hornets.

Charlotte’s issues stem more from the offensive side than on defence, but the team is still subpar in terms of defensive rating (20th).

Also, the Hornets allow the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing point guards (6.7), per Betting Pros.

There are better matchups out there for a guy like SGA, but this one’s good enough that I expect he’ll continue wreaking havoc.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 35.5 points/rebounds in nine of his past 13 games.

Quick picks

Grant under 14.5 points (-109): Tonight marks the third time this month that the Portland Trail Blazers will face the Dallas Mavericks. And I’m expecting another dud from Grant.

On Dec. 1, Grant finished with 14 points on 4-of-10 shooting against Dallas. He followed that up with just three points on 1-of-7 shooting on Dec. 23.

Grant is averaging 15.0 PPG on the season, but his recent production has been a step below that.

In 16 games since Nov. 13, Grant has averaged 12.6 PPG and hit this under 12 times.

Fox over 24.5 points (-137): The Sacramento Kings are having a weird one, after a questionable firing of head coach Mike Brown, but that shouldn’t affect Fox’s steady production as a scorer.

Fox is on his way to averaging 25-plus points for the fourth time in five seasons.

He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five games.

Furthermore, the Kings’ point guard is a reliable bucket-getter against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll see tonight.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Fox has averaged 30.4 PPG against the Lakers in 11 matchups. He has 25-plus points in all three prior meetings this year.

Picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 12/28/2024.

Suns vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions Dec. 28: Bet on Golden State to win, Curry to shoot the lights out at +275

The Phoenix Suns visit the Golden State Warriors in a marquee Western Conference matchup.

The pregame narrative: The Suns have been struggling on the road lately, so I’ll take the Warriors at home. I have picks on Steph Curry and Kevin Durant to round out this +275 SGP.

Check out my Suns vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 28.

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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Durant over 28.5 points + Curry over 3.5 threes (+275)

Warriors moneyline (-220): I want to start by highlighting the last five road games for Phoenix:

Dec. 23 @ Denver: L (117-90)
Dec. 13 @ Utah: W (134-126)
Dec. 8 @ Orlando: L (115-110)
Dec. 7 @ Miami: L (121-111)
Dec. 5 @ New Orleans: L (126-124)

The Suns are now 1-7 in their past eight away games and 5-8 overall on the road.

Devin Booker remains sidelined for this contest and Phoenix is 1-3 this season without its star shooting guard.

The Warriors played yesterday in a 102-92 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, but Curry was out and he is expected to play tonight. That should provide a huge boost to Golden State’s offence.

Neither of these teams is playing great basketball right now, but I like this spot for the Warriors at home.

SGP legs

Durant over 28.5 points (-129): One player I’m confident will show up for the Suns is Durant.

In Phoenix’s 98-89 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, Durant scored 35 points, which equals 39.3% of the Suns’ offence for the entire game.

In his four games without Booker, the Slim Reaper is averaging 32.0 points. He shot above 53% in three of those four contests.

He has prime-level KD shooting splits this season at 51.5/42.0/84.2, and the absence of his co-star should mean more volume for the former MVP.

Curry over 3.5 threes (-250): Curry put on a show on Christmas Day, scoring 38 points against the Los Angeles Lakers while making 8-of-15 threes.

The superstar point guard is also the most well-rested player on his team after missing Friday’s game.

Curry is a much more efficient shooter at home this season, averaging 4.9 threes on 10.5 attempts (46.7%).

Additionally, he’s 7-3 against this line at Chase Center. Everything points to Curry putting up another elite shooting performance at home.

Picks made at 11:48 a.m. ET 12/28/2024

Cavaliers vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Dec. 27: Back Mitchell, Jokic at +360

The Cleveland Cavaliers head west for a battle with the Denver Nuggets.

The pregame narrative: Denver has been riding high at home so I’m backing the Nuggets on an alternate spread. I also have prop picks on Donovan Mitchell and Nikola Jokic in this +360 wager.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 27.

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Parlay: Nuggets +8 + Mitchell over 23.5 points + Jokic over 1.5 threes (+360)

Nuggets +8 (-335): The Nuggets are 8-1 over their last nine games at Ball Arena. During this hot streak, they’ve beaten the Phoenix Suns, Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks (twice).

Cleveland carries the best record in the NBA (26-4) but has lost two of the last three on the road.

The momentum in this spot rides on the side of the Nuggets and I’m buying in.

Taking an extra handful of points gives this leg extra cushion even though I believe Denver has a good chance to win straight up.

SGP legs

Mitchell over 23.5 points (-120): Mitchell’s scoring production has taken a dip this season (23.3 PPG) but it’s more of a “too-much-talent” problem, which is an issue every team would love to have.

The dynamic guard can still score at a high level, shooting above 40% from three. It’s about finding the right matchup and I think this is it.

Denver allows the second-most points to shooting guards (24.5), per Fantasy Pros. The standard line in this game is Cavaliers -3 and as mentioned before, I expect the Nuggets to keep it close.

Cleveland leads the NBA with an average scoring margin of +11.6, per Team Rankings.

Blowout wins are another reason for Mitchell’s scoring dip. But a close game with a good individual matchup is a good reason to get behind him on Friday.

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-112): The MVP favourite has been an assassin from 3-point range this season.

Jokic is shooting 50.0% from three and he’s cleared this line in 14 of the last 16 games. The do-it-all big man has added a legit three-point shot to his arsenal.

Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets and if he is out, Jokic will spend more time on the perimeter which would ideally lead to more 3-point attempts.

He’s been so efficient, however, only a few attempts are required for this leg to cash.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 12/27/2024

Warriors vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Dec. 27: Back Norman Powell, Dennis Schroder at +295

The Los Angeles Clippers host the Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Golden State has done well without Curry but I expect Los Angeles to win tonight. Prop bets on Norman Powell and Dennis Schroder round out this +295 wager.

Check out my Warriors vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 27.

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Parlay: Clippers moneyline + Powell over 22.5 points + Schroder over 1.5 threes (+295)

Clippers moneyline (-177): The Warriors are 4-1 without Curry in the lineup this year but you can’t tell me they’re a better team without him.

The future Hall of Famer is averaging a team-high 22.5 points and 6.5 assists per game.
Golden State averages 19.5 more points per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor. That ranks in the 100th percentile of all NBA players this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

On the whole, Golden State has been struggling. It is 4-10 in its last 10 games and 1-5 in its last six.

The Clippers are 10-6 at home and have the fourth-best ATS record (19-11-0) in the NBA. I’ll shave a few points off the home favourites and simply back them to win.

Other SGP legs

Powell over 22.5 points (-132): It will be a travesty if Powell isn’t an all-star this season with the way he’s been playing.

The former Toronto Raptor is averaging 24.1 points per night on stellar 49.5/47.3/83.8 shooting splits.

And he’s really caught fire lately. Take a look at his last four games:

Dec. 23 vs. Memphis: 29 points
Dec. 21 vs. Mavericks: 28 points
Dec. 19 vs. Mavericks: 29 points
Dec. 16 vs. Jazz: 29 points

Powell is attempting 17.6 shots per game this month which is a great baseline to have volume-wise.

Tonight’s matchup should be favourable. Golden State has allowed the 10th-most PPG to shooting guards this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Powell scored 20 and 23 points against the Warriors this season, shooting above 50% in both games.

Schroder over 1.5 threes (-195): Someone has to replace Curry’s 10.3 three-point attempts per night, right?

Schroder was lighting it up with the Brooklyn Nets this season before Golden State traded for him.

18.4 PPG
38.7 3P%
2+ threes in 16/23 games

The German PG went a combined 0-for-8 from deep in his first two games with the Warriors but nabbed three triples against the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas.

He’s a capable 3-point shooter who’s going to be playing a lot of minutes tonight. This seems like a no-brainer addition to the SGP.

Picks made at 11:46 a.m. on 12/27/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 27: Picks on Tatum, Bitadze and Wembanyama

The NBA is back in full force and I have three prop bets to share.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum has been on a roll for the Boston Celtics and I predict an efficient night from 3-point range. Elsewhere, I have picks on Goga Bitadze and Victor Wembanyama.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 27.

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Best bet: Tatum over 3.5 threes (-110)

I was swaying between Tatum’s points prop and his threes total before I noticed something interesting.

Every time the Celtics’ superstar has gone over 28.5 points (his current prop) since Nov. 6 (11 times), he’s also had 4 or more threes.

Tatum is playing out of his mind and making a case for MVP. He’s averaging 29.0 points per game and makes 4.0 three-pointers on 10.6 attempts.

The forward cleared this total in the past three games, scoring 30-plus in every contest including a 43-point explosion against the Chicago Bulls.

Indiana offers up similarly bad defence, giving up second-most points to opposing power forwards per game (25.4), per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Tatum has scored 30-plus points in nine straight games against the Pacers.

Quick picks

Bitadze under 9.5 rebounds (-118): Bitadze has been a brute for the Orlando Magic during his tenure as starting centre this season.

But he has a tough matchup tonight against one of the NBA’s premium rebounders.

Karl-Anthony Towns leads the association in rebounds per game (13.7) and the New York Knicks allow the second-fewest boards to the position (13.1).

The first time these teams met, Bitadze had 11 rebounds compared to KAT’s 22 but I expect both players to see regression on Friday.

Orlando played yesterday and lost 89-88 to the Miami Heat. A back-to-back means a blowout could be in the works here, which would be great for this under.

Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-120): The second-year phenom is starting to light up the NBA and it’s a scary scene.

Wembanyama scored 42 points on Christmas Day and has cleared this total in six of his last seven.

Over that span, he is averaging 33.9 minutes and 28.5 points on 20.4 shot attempts.

Those are the stats of an elite scorer yet Wembanyana is still getting modest lines, why?

Well, the Brooklyn Nets beat the Milwaukee Bucks last night meaning the San Antonio Spurs are 6.5-point favourites.

However, in Thursday’s game, Brook Lopez scored 20 points against the Nets and he averages 11.9 points per game.

To put it simply — Wembanyama could smash this total — even in limited minutes.

Picks made at 8:54 a.m. ET on 12/27/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 27: Picks on Tatum, Bitadze and Wembanyama

The NBA is back in full force and I have three prop bets to share.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum has been on a roll for the Boston Celtics and I predict an efficient night from 3-point range. Elsewhere, I have picks on Goga Bitadze and Victor Wembanyama.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 27.

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Best bet: Tatum over 3.5 threes (-105)

I was swaying between Tatum’s points prop and his threes total before I noticed something interesting.

Every time the Celtics’ superstar has gone over 28.5 points (his current prop) since Nov. 6 (11 times), he’s also had 4 or more threes.

Tatum is playing out of his mind and making a case for MVP. He’s averaging 29.0 points per game and makes 4.0 three-pointers on 10.6 attempts.

The forward cleared this total in the past three games, scoring 30-plus in every contest including a 43-point explosion against the Chicago Bulls.

Indiana offers up similarly bad defence, giving up second-most points to opposing power forwards per game (25.4), per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Tatum has scored 30-plus points in nine straight games against the Pacers.

Quick picks

Bitadze under 9.5 rebounds (-114): Bitadze has been a brute for the Orlando Magic during his tenure as starting centre this season.

But he has a tough matchup tonight against one of the NBA’s premium rebounders.

Karl-Anthony Towns leads the association in rebounds per game (13.7) and the New York Knicks allow the second-fewest boards to the position (13.1).

The first time these teams met, Bitadze had 11 rebounds compared to KAT’s 22 but I expect both players to see regression on Friday.

Orlando played yesterday and lost 89-88 to the Miami Heat. A back-to-back means a blowout could be in the works here, which would be great for this under.

Wembanyama over 24.5 points (-112): The second-year phenom is starting to light up the NBA and it’s a scary scene.

Wembanyama scored 42 points on Christmas Day and has cleared this total in six of his last seven.

Over that span, he is averaging 33.9 minutes and 28.5 points on 20.4 shot attempts.

Those are the stats of an elite scorer yet Wembanyana is still getting modest lines, why?

Well, the Brooklyn Nets beat the Milwaukee Bucks last night meaning the San Antonio Spurs are 6.5-point favourites.

However, in Thursday’s game, Brook Lopez scored 20 points against the Nets and he averages 11.9 points per game.

To put it simply — Wembanyama could smash this total — even in limited minutes.

Picks made at 8:54 a.m. ET on 12/27/2024.

Pistons vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Dec. 26: Fade Sacramento but back Fox at +310

The Detroit Pistons and Sacramento Kings duel in Thursday’s NBA nightcap

The pregame narrative: Detroit has won three of its last four and I’ll bank some extra points with it on the road on an alternate spread. Prop bets on Tim Hardaway Jr. and DeAaron Fox round out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Pistons vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 26.

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Parlay: Pistons +8.5 + Hardaway under 10.5 points + Fox over 5.5 assists (+310)

Pistons +8.5 (-177): Has Detroit finally turned a corner? It’s probably too early to say but the Pistons have been playing well lately.

J. B. Bickerstaff’s squad picked up back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns and have now won four of their last six.

The Pistons kicked that streak off by beating a surging Knicks team in New York.

I keep waiting for Sacramento to find its footing but that might not happen. The Kings are on a four-game losing streak and are now 13-17 on the season.

They’re loaded with talent but haven’t been able to put things together.

Sacramento is 10-19-1 ATS including a 4-9-1 mark as a home favourite. Detroit, meanwhile, is 8-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.

SGP legs

Hardaway under 10.5 points (-143): This is a great spot to fade Hardaway.

Detroit’s small forward is shooting an uninspiring 42.2% from the field and is only taking 8.1 shots per night.

There are games where Hardaway isn’t involved offensively — he’s scored five or fewer points five times in the last 15 games — and I think tonight will be one of those contests.

Sacramento is allowing the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing SFs, per Fantasy Pros.

Hardaway has cleared this line in consecutive games but is 12-15 against this number on the season.

Fox over 5.5 assists (-295): Fox’s floor as a facilitator is high:

He has averaged at least 5.6 assists per game since his rookie season.
Fox has 5+ assists in 23/30 games this year.

It’s worth noting that this is a tough matchup.

The Pistons allow the second-fewest assists per game to point guards and the 11th-fewest assists overall.

However, Fox has been dishing it. Sacramento’s floor general has seven-plus assists in eight of 10 games in December. I like him to stay hot despite Detroit’s defensive prowess.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET 12/26/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 26: Back DeAndre Ayton, Tyler Herro and Nikola Vucevic on Boxing Day

We’re back to regularly scheduled programming with a nine-game Boxing Day NBA slate, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler has demanded a trade request which puts Tyler Herro in a position to be the alpha dog on the Miami Heat. I’m expecting him to score and also have bets on Nikola Vucevic and DeAndre Ayton.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 26.

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Best bet: Herro over 23.5 points (-110)

Based on how Herro’s played this season, you could already say he is “the guy” in Miami.

23.9 points/game (team-high)
17.6 FGA/game (team-high)
40.3% 3-point percentage (career-best)

Butler gave the Heat’s front office some coal on Christmas by requesting a trade — he’s listed as doubtful to play tonight, for obvious reasons.

The small forward averaged 11.1 shots a night and that volume is likely going Herro’s way.

Miami is on the road against an Orlando Magic squad that’s ravaged by injuries. Moritz and Franz Wagner are out alongside Paolo Banchero but the team still ranks eighth in defensive rating this month.

Herro barely fell under this total with 22 points when he played the Magic on Dec. 21 but had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night (7-of-17).

The volume was still there, though, and this is a nice opportunity to get back on track.

Key stat: Herro has scored 23+ points in 15 of 27 starts.

Quick picks

Vucevic over 1.5 threes (-150): Vucevic has taken a page out of Nikola Jokic’s playbook by massively improving his 3-point percentage as a big man.

The Chicago Bulls center averages 2.1 makes on 4.7 attempts per night, an elite 45.2% clip. That’s after shooting 29.4% last season.

He’s cleared this mark in eight of his last 10 games and bagged multiples triples in both contests against the Atlanta Hawks earlier this year.

Atlanta allows the most 3s per game (15.9) at the second-highest rate (38.2%).

Ayton over 14.5 points (-108): Ayton has been a remarkably consistent but largely unimpressive player this season, averaging between 14.1 and 14.4 points per game every month.

He’s not putting up eye-popping numbers but is shooting the ball well — 61.5% in December, to be exact — and has a high floor as a scorer.

Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz should be exploitable.

Utah allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing centers, according to Fantasy Pros, and the 11th-most points in the paint.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 12/26/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 26: Back DeAndre Ayton, Tyler Herro and Nikola Vucevic on Boxing Day

We’re back to regularly scheduled programming with a nine-game Boxing Day NBA slate, starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler has demanded a trade request which puts Tyler Herro in a position to be the alpha dog on the Miami Heat. I’m expecting him to score and also have bets on Nikola Vucevic and DeAndre Ayton.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 26.

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Best bet: Herro over 22.5 points (-132)

Let’s stay hot after going 3-for-3 in yesterday’s prop bets.

Based on how Herro’s played this season, you could already say he is “the guy” in Miami.

23.9 points/game (team-high)
17.6 FGA/game (team-high)
40.3% 3-point percentage (career-best)

Butler gave the Heat’s front office some coal on Christmas by requesting a trade — he’s listed as doubtful to play tonight, for obvious reasons.

The small forward averaged 11.1 shots a night and that volume is likely going Herro’s way.

Miami is on the road against an Orlando Magic squad that’s ravaged by injuries. Moritz and Franz Wagner are out alongside Paolo Banchero but the team still ranks eighth in defensive rating this month.

Herro barely fell under this total with 22 points when he played the Magic on Dec. 21 but had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night (7-of-17).

The volume was still there, though, and this is a nice opportunity to get back on track.

Key stat: Herro has scored 23+ points in 15 of 27 starts.

Quick picks

Vucevic over 1.5 threes (-137): Vucevic has taken a page out of Nikola Jokic’s playbook by massively improving his 3-point percentage as a big man.

The Chicago Bulls center averages 2.1 makes on 4.7 attempts per night, an elite 45.2% clip. That’s after shooting 29.4% last season.

He’s cleared this mark in eight of his last 10 games and bagged multiples triples in both contests against the Atlanta Hawks earlier this year.

Atlanta allows the most 3s per game (15.9) at the second-highest rate (38.2%).

Ayton over 14.5 points (-106): Ayton has been a remarkably consistent but largely unimpressive player this season, averaging between 14.1 and 14.4 points per game every month.

He’s not putting up eye-popping numbers but is shooting the ball well — 61.5% in December, to be exact — and has a high floor as a scorer.

Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz should be exploitable.

Utah allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing centers, according to Fantasy Pros, and the 11th-most points in the paint.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 12/26/2024.