Category: NBA

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks Jan. 9: Bet on Durant, Risacher to produce

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks

The struggling Phoenix Suns host the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night in the desert.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix, which is 2-8 in its past 10 games, will need to continue to lean on Kevin Durant in order to turn things around. I’m taking the over on Durant’s points prop as my best bet, while tailing Bradley Beal and Zaccharie Risacher in other ways.

Check out my Hawks vs. Suns prop picks for Jan. 9.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks

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Best Bet: Durant over 26.5 points (-108)

Durant’s career scoring average is 27.3 PPG. Amazingly, he’s putting up 27.4 PPG right now in Year 17.

The four-time scoring champ can get a bucket from anywhere, which makes him a great guy to bet on in numerous matchups.

Facing a team that struggles to defend the 3-point line? Durant is shooting 40.8% from deep this year on 5.7 attempts.

Facing a team that takes too many fouls? Durant has an 84.2% free throw rate on 6.8 attempts.

Of these two camps, Atlanta falls into the former. The Hawks allow the most attempted 3s per game (40.5) and the highest opponent 3PT% (38.4).

In a more general sense, the Hawks allow the third-most points per game (119.8).

This is clearly a plus matchup, and Durant’s points prop asks less of him than his season average. That’s enough to sell me.

In his past five matchups against the Hawks (since April 2022), Durant has averaged 33.8 points.

Key stat: Durant has gone over 26.5 points in 13 of 25 games this season.

Quick pick

Beal over 3.5 assists (+115): Beal has come off the bench for the Suns in back-to-back games, but he still played 30-plus minutes in both matchups. In other words, it’s been more of a realignment than a demotion.

As a shooting guard, Beal doesn’t tend to rack up assists, but this line isn’t asking too much of him. He’s gone over 3.5 assists in eight of his past 14 games — including both as Phoenix’s sixth man.

Also, Atlanta is a great matchup for anyone looking to pass the rock:

  • 3rd-most assists allowed overall (28.7)
  • 4th-most assists allowed to SGs (5.6), per Betting Pros

Beal had 19 assists in two matchups against the Hawks last winter, easily cashing this bet in both games.

Risacher over 4.5 rebounds (-112): Risacher has cashed this bet in four of his past seven games while averaging 4.7 RPG in that span.

He also has three-plus rebounds in each of his past seven games, which is easily his most consistent production on the glass all year.

Some folks may have expected more from last June’s No. 1 overall pick, but not everyone can step in and play like Victor Wembanyama.

Phoenix allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing small forwards (8.3), so this should be a nice opportunity for Risacher to stay active in that regard.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET 01/09/2024.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks Jan. 9: Bet on Durant, Risacher to produce

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks

The struggling Phoenix Suns host the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night in the desert.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix, which is 2-8 in its past 10 games, will need to continue to lean on Kevin Durant in order to turn things around. I’m taking the over on Durant’s points prop as my best bet, while tailing Bradley Beal and Zaccharie Risacher in other ways.

Check out my Hawks vs. Suns prop picks for Jan. 9.

Hawks vs. Suns prop picks

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Embed: #105743

Best Bet: Durant over 26.5 points (-114)

Durant’s career scoring average is 27.3 PPG. Amazingly, he’s putting up 27.4 PPG right now in Year 17.

The four-time scoring champ can get a bucket from anywhere, which makes him a great guy to bet on in numerous matchups.

Facing a team that struggles to defend the 3-point line? Durant is shooting 40.8% from deep this year on 5.7 attempts.

Facing a team that takes too many fouls? Durant has an 84.2% free throw rate on 6.8 attempts.

Of these two camps, Atlanta falls into the former. The Hawks allow the most attempted 3s per game (40.5) and the highest opponent 3PT% (38.4).

In a more general sense, the Hawks allow the third-most points per game (119.8).

This is clearly a plus matchup, and Durant’s points prop asks less of him than his season average. That’s enough to sell me.

In his past five matchups against the Hawks (since April 2022), Durant has averaged 33.8 points.

Key stat: Durant has gone over 26.5 points in 13 of 25 games this season.

Quick pick

Beal over 3.5 assists (-104): Beal has come off the bench for the Suns in back-to-back games, but he still played 30-plus minutes in both matchups. In other words, it’s been more of a realignment than a demotion.

As a shooting guard, Beal doesn’t tend to rack up assists, but this line isn’t asking too much of him. He’s gone over 3.5 assists in eight of his past 14 games — including both as Phoenix’s sixth man.

Also, Atlanta is a great matchup for anyone looking to pass the rock:

  • 3rd-most assists allowed overall (28.7)
  • 4th-most assists allowed to SGs (5.6), per Betting Pros

Beal had 19 assists in two matchups against the Hawks last winter, easily cashing this bet in both games.

Risacher over 4.5 rebounds (+110): I like this plus-money flier on Risacher, who’s cashed this bet in four of his past seven games while averaging 4.7 RPG in that span.

Risacher has three-plus rebounds in each of his past seven games. That’s easily his most consistent production on the glass all year.

Some folks may have expected more from last June’s No. 1 overall pick, but not everyone can step in to play like Victor Wembanyama.

Phoenix allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing small forwards (8.3), so this should be a nice opportunity for Risacher to stay active in that regard.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 01/09/2024.

Spurs vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions Jan. 8: Back stars Wembanyama and Lillard

Spurs vs. Bucks predictions

A showdown between Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo closes out Wednesday night’s NBA action.

The pregame narrative: While Antetokounmpo doesn’t factor into this San Antonio Spurs and Milwaukee Bucks +320 SGP, Wembanyama does. I like the Spurs phenom to stay hot from beyond the arc and I have legs on point guards Damian Lillard and Chris Paul.

Check out my Spurs vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 8.

Spurs vs. Bucks predictions

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Parlay: Wembanyama 3+ threes, Lillard over 22.5 points & Paul over 17.5 points/assists (+320)

Wembanyama 3+ threes (-205): Wembanyama is absolutely uncorking from long range.

Look at the jump he’s taken in conversions and volume from 3-point land in his sophomore season.

  • 2023-24: 1.8 threes on 5.5 attempts (32.5%)
  • 2024-25: 3.3 threes on 9.4 attempts (35.4%)

That’s a monster leap for the 7-foot-3 superstar who has routinely hit this number at a high clip.

Wembanyama fell below three triples in eight of his first nine games this season. Since then, he’s gone 16-6 against this line.

Over that 22-game stretch, he’s averaging 4.0 threes per game and has amassed a whopping six-plus on seven different occasions.

SGP legs

Lillard over 22.5 points (-143): The Spurs defend point guards extremely well, but we’re not even asking Lillard to reach his season scoring average here.

The star Bucks PG enters scoring 24.7/game and he is 19-9 versus this line on the season and 9-3 since the start of December.

Lillard can hurt teams from a lot of areas, including from deep, where he’s nailed five triples in three of his last seven games. That can help him pile up points in a hurry.

Tonight’s total isn’t grand but it’s a healthy 227.5, so buckets are expected.

Paul over 17.5 points/assists (-125): Speaking of point guards, I like Paul in a plus matchup against the Bucks’ weak PG defence.

Milwaukee allows the fourth-most points to the position in the NBA. While Paul isn’t much of a scorer anymore, he’s still capable and this is a good opponent for him to contribute.

He’s coming off an 18-point game, snapping a string of five consecutive contests scoring in single digits.

But he was still able to top this line twice over that stretch thanks to his ability to pile up assists.

The veteran enters the night averaging 8.4 assists per game, ranking sixth in the NBA.

Picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET 01/08/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 8: Back Brook Lopez and Cade Cunningham on Wednesday night

NBA prop bets

Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham is featured in Wednesday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Cunningham has been crushing it from long range and I like him to stay hot tonight. Additionally, my best bet is on Brook Lopez for tonight’s eight-game NBA slate.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 8.

NBA prop bets

Editor’s note: Kawhi Leonard was ruled out after this story was published.

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Lopez over 14.5 points/rebounds (-130)

Embed: #105639

This is a light line for a starter who’s getting over 30 minutes a night.

Of course, there’s reason for that. Lopez plays alongside two high-usage scorers with huge volume: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. 

That eats into his scoring upside but Lopez’s production has significantly improved of late. 

Lopez has cashed this eight times in his last 10 games. It’s been powered by his scoring (14.7 points and 2.1 triples).

The Spurs surrender the fifth-most points to centres, per Betting Pros, making this an even more enticing play.

So if you’re looking for a better price, you could go Lopez over 10.5 points (-104).

But I think the combo market has a greater chance of hitting and the -130 price is more than playable. 

Key stat: Lopez is averaging 19.1 points/rebounds over his last 10.

Quick picks

Cunningham over 2.5 threes (-129): The Pistons guard came well short of his prop lines when he faced the Brooklyn Nets earlier this season but I expect him to feast tonight. 

The Nets are 25th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Cunningham has improved efficiency and volume this season and he’s more dangerous from the perimeter. 

The Pistons are also down an offensive weapon in guard Jaden Ivey and Cunningham has exploded in consecutive games without him. 

  • Cunningham has scored 32 and 40 points, respectively, in his last two games.
  • He nailed four triples in each outing and has reached that mark four times in his last six contests.
  • The 23-year-old topped this line 11 times in his last 15. 

Leonard over 1.5 threes (+117): This is an excellent number to back Leonard in his third game of the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers’ oft-injured star has topped this in both games, taking five attempts from deep in each contest despite limited minutes.

He played 21 minutes last game following 19 in his season opener, taking a healthy 11 shots from the field in both outings.

Leonard has averaged at least 1.9 triples per game on good percentages in each of the last five seasons coming into this year.

He gets the Denver Nuggets on a back-to-back tonight.

Denver’s defence has struggled coming into the evening, ranking 23rd in defensive rating over its last 10 games and in the bottom half of opponent 3-pointers allowed.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 01/08/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 8: Back Brook Lopez and Cade Cunningham on Wednesday night

NBA prop bets

Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningham is featured in Wednesday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Cunningham has been crushing it from long range and I like him to stay hot tonight. Additionally, my best bet is on Brook Lopez for tonight’s eight-game NBA slate.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 8.

NBA prop bets

Editor’s note: Kawhi Leonard was ruled out after this story was published.

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Lopez over 10.5 points (-106)

This is a light line for a starter who’s getting over 30 minutes a night.

Of course, there’s reason for that. Lopez plays alongside two high-usage scorers with huge volume: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. 

That eats into his scoring upside but Lopez’s production has significantly improved of late. 

Lopez has cashed this seven times in his last 10 games and he’s cleared it with ease most nights, hitting the 20-point mark three different times.

The Spurs surrender the fifth-most points to centres, per Betting Pros, making this an even more enticing play.

Key stat: Lopez is averaging 14.7 points and 2.1 triples over his last 10 games.

Quick picks

Cunningham over 2.5 threes (-129): The Pistons guard came well short of his prop lines when he faced the Brooklyn Nets earlier this season but I expect him to feast tonight. 

The Nets are 25th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Cunningham has improved efficiency and volume this season and he’s more dangerous from the perimeter. 

The Pistons are also down an offensive weapon in guard Jaden Ivey and Cunningham has exploded in consecutive games without him. 

  • Cunningham has scored 32 and 40 points, respectively, in his last two games.
  • He nailed four triples in each outing and has reached that mark four times in his last six contests.
  • The 23-year-old topped this line 11 times in his last 15.

Leonard over 1.5 threes (+110): This is an excellent number to back Leonard in his third game of the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers’ oft-injured star has topped this in both games, taking five attempts from deep in each contest despite limited minutes.

He played 21 minutes last game following 19 in his season opener, taking a healthy 11 shots from the field in both outings.

Leonard has averaged at least 1.9 triples per game on good percentages in each of the last five seasons coming into this year.

He gets the Denver Nuggets on a back-to-back tonight.

Denver’s defence has struggled coming into the evening, ranking 23rd in defensive rating over its last 10 games and in the bottom half of opponent 3-pointers allowed.

Picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 01/08/2025.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks Jan. 8: Back Gilgeous-Alexander and Allen in battle of NBA’s top teams

Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks

The top-seeded teams from each conference meet Wednesday night in a huge matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers.

The pregame narrative: These teams have a combined 61-9 record so there are plenty of stars to choose from in the prop markets. I found value on picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jarrett Allen.

Check out my Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks for Jan. 8.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks

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Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-120)

In my opinion, Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP to this point.

He’s averaging 31.3 points on 52.4% shooting while carrying a young roster to a 30-5 record in the loaded Western Conference.

The Cavaliers provide a tough matchup but they are vulnerable to point guards. They allow the third-most points per game (26.1) to the position, per Fantasy Pros.

Additionally, Gilgeous-Alexander is on a tear, clearing this line in six of the past eight games.

During that time, he’s averaging 34.8 points on 57.6% from the field and 46.3% from three.

He’s coming off a 33-point performance over the East’s No. 2 seed, the Boston Celtics.

This is a tough matchup for the Thunder but a good one for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Key stat: He cleared this line in both meetings versus the Cavaliers last season, scoring 34 and 43 points.

Quick pick

Allen over 10.5 rebounds (-125): The Cavs centre has been inconsistent against this line. But this is a good matchup for him and I expect the game to be close.

Cleveland leads the NBA with an average scoring margin of +11.8, per Team Rankings.

That has led to many blowouts and the lowest minutes per game (29.0) for Allen since the 2020-21 season.

The Thunder are just behind with a +11.4 average scoring margin and are 2.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.

These elite teams should produce a tight matchup, helping Allen stay on the court. And as long as that’s the case, the 6-foot-9 centre should be active on the glass.

Allen averages right around this mark with 10.1 rebounds per game and the Thunder allow the seventh-most rebounds to centres (15.9).

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 01/08/2025.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks Jan. 8: Back Gilgeous-Alexander and Allen in battle of NBA’s top teams

Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks

The top-seeded teams from each conference meet Wednesday night in a huge matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers.

The pregame narrative: These teams have a combined 61-9 record so there are plenty of stars to choose from in the prop markets. I found value on picks for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jarrett Allen.

Check out my Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks for Jan. 8.

Thunder vs. Cavaliers prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #105592

Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-118)

In my opinion, Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP to this point.

He’s averaging 31.3 points on 52.4% shooting while carrying a young roster to a 30-5 record in the loaded Western Conference.

The Cavaliers provide a tough matchup but they are vulnerable to point guards. They allow the third-most points per game (26.1) to the position, per Fantasy Pros.

Additionally, Gilgeous-Alexander is on a tear, clearing this line in six of the past eight games.

During that time, he’s averaging 34.8 points on 57.6% from the field and 46.3% from three.

He’s coming off a 33-point performance over the East’s No. 2 seed, the Boston Celtics.

This is a tough matchup for the Thunder but a good one for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Key stat: He cleared this line in both meetings versus the Cavaliers last season, scoring 34 and 43 points.

Quick pick

Allen over 10.5 rebounds (-110): The Cavs centre has been inconsistent against this line. But this is a good matchup for him and I expect the game to be close.

Cleveland leads the NBA with an average scoring margin of +11.8, per Team Rankings.

That has led to many blowouts and the lowest minutes per game (29.0) for Allen since the 2020-21 season.

The Thunder are just behind with a +11.4 average scoring margin and are 2.5-point underdogs on Wednesday.

These elite teams should produce a tight matchup, helping Allen stay on the court. And as long as that’s the case, the 6-foot-9 centre should be active on the glass.

Allen averages right around this mark with 10.1 rebounds per game and the Thunder allow the seventh-most rebounds to centres (15.9).

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 01/08/2025.

Raptors vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions Jan. 8: Back RJ Barrett, fade Jakob Poeltl at +380

Raptors vs. Knicks predictions

The Toronto Raptors visit the New York Knicks on Wednesday for the second time in a few weeks.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors are struggling right now so I’m taking the Knicks to cover an alternate spread. But I’m adding an RJ Barrett prop to this SGP and fading his teammate Jakob Poeltl.

Check out my Raptors vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 8.

Raptors vs. Knicks predictions

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Embed: #105574

Parlay: Knicks -7.5 + Barrett over 19.5 points + Poeltl under 9.5 rebounds (+380)

Knicks -7.5 (-205): When I look at the Raptors’ game log, I see a lot of Ls.

They have one win in their last 13 games. One of those many losses came against the Knicks last month, 139-125 defeat at Madison Square Garden.

New York went 14-2 in December, climbing to third in the Eastern Conference.

The Knicks are 1-3 to start the new year and they’ll want to take advantage of this spot before hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday.

Toronto was once a reliable bet to cover the spread but since that loss to the Knicks, the Raptors are 1-6 ATS and 2-5 against this line.

Good teams have been taking advantage of Toronto’s struggles and I expect New York to walk away with a double-digit win tonight.

SGP legs

Barrett over 19.5 points (-143): This prop pick will provide some negative correlation and boost the odds of the SGP. And it should.

I’m taking the Knicks to win comfortably and expecting Barrett to have a good game. Here’s the reasoning:

  • Barrett scored 30 and 23 points, respectively, in two games against his former team this season.
  • He has cashed this wager in 18 of 28 games.

In Barrett’s first game playing with Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes, he scored 25 points on an efficient 11-of-18 shooting in a 24-point loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.

Someone needs to score points, even in big losses, and the Canadian guard is having a career year, averaging 23.5 per game.

Poeltl under 9.5 rebounds (-127): This ticket is rounded out with a fade on the Toronto big man.

  • Poeltl is 6-1 against this line since Dec. 12.
  • The Knicks allow the third-fewest rebounds per game to centres (13.3), per Fantasy Pros.

This is well within Poeltl’s capabilities but I have to fade him based on recent performances and a tough matchup.

Picks made at 8:48 a.m. ET 01/08/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 7: Back Ball and Gobert on Tuesday night

NBA prop bets

LaMelo Ball is featured as the best bet for Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Ball is cooking and I like him to stay hot versus the Phoenix Suns. I also have a prop play on Bam Adebayo.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 7.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Ball over 11.5 reb/ast (-134)

The Charlotte Hornets star gets a Phoenix Suns team that doesn’t rebound the ball well on a back-to-back.

Ball is a difficult player to contain on the best of nights, let alone on a rest disadvantage.

He has big scoring upside in this game, but I also like him to pile up assists and rebounds and think there’s better value playing him on this market.

He’s averaging this exact line on the season and has put up some monster numbers of late.

Ball fell short in his last contest and landed on 12 the game before that, but he cleared this in seven straight ahead of that.

For the season, he’s 16-7 against this number.

Key stat: Ball has averaged 13-plus rebounds/assists in each of the last three seasons.

Quick picks

Adebayo over 16.5 points (-118): The Miami Heat are coming off a gruelling double overtime loss but the show must go on.

This is a tough spot for the team, though I like Adebayo to clear this modest number.

His scoring is way down this season (16.1/game) but Jimmy Butler is no longer someone he needs to share the ball with on offence, which should only help his scoring outlook for the rest of the season.

Adebayo averaged 19-plus points in three straight seasons coming into this year.

He has two ugly four-point games in his last 10, but has topped this line seven times over that stretch.

Getting this price on this line is not something you’ll see often for the all-star centre.

Picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET on 01/07/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 7: Back Adebayo, Ball and Gobert on Tuesday night

NBA prop bets

LaMelo Ball is featured as the best bet for Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Ball is cooking and I like him to stay hot versus the Phoenix Suns. I also have plays on centres Rudy Gobert and Bam Adebayo.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 7.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #105546

Best bet: Ball over 12.5 reb/ast (+100)

The Charlotte Hornets star gets a Phoenix Suns team that doesn’t rebound the ball well on a back-to-back.

Ball is a difficult player to contain on the best of nights, let alone on a rest disadvantage.

He has big scoring upside in this game, but I also like him to pile up assists and rebounds and think there’s better value playing him on this market.

He’s averaging this exact line on the season and has put up some monster numbers of late.

Ball fell short in his last contest and landed on 12 the game before that, but he cleared this in seven straight ahead of that.

For the season, he’s 14-9 against this number.

Key stat: Ball has averaged 13-plus rebounds/assists in each of the last three seasons.

Quick picks

Gobert over 21.5 points/rebounds (-124): Gobert’s production is sporadic and he’s not a heavy usage player on the offensive end. So there’s some risk here.

He’s turned in clunkers in three of his last five games, falling well short of this line. But he’s smashed it in the other two and has an appealing opponent tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans allow the most rebounds per game to centres, per Betting Pros, and surrender the sixth-most points to the position.

And one of the things Gobert does particularly well is rebound the ball.

He’s averaging 10.5 per game, the 10th consecutive season he’s been in double figures. The 7-foot-1 veteran is coming off an 18-rebound performance and had 15 four games before that.

On top of the rebounding upside, Gobert operates in high-scoring areas in the paint and is efficient. He’s contributing 10.1 points per game on 61.8% shooting from the field.

So all we’re asking is for him to just clear his season-long average in a plus matchup.

Adebayo over 15.5 points (-132): The Miami Heat are coming off a gruelling double overtime loss but the show must go on.

This is a tough spot for the team, though I like Adebayo to clear this modest number.

His scoring is way down this season (16.1/game) but Jimmy Butler is no longer someone he needs to share the ball with on offence, which should only help his scoring outlook for the rest of the season.

Adebayo averaged 19-plus points in three straight seasons coming into this year.

He has two ugly four-point games in his last 10, but has topped this line seven times over that stretch.

Getting this price on this line is not something you’ll see often for the all-star centre.

Picks made at 1:12 p.m. ET on 01/07/2025.