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Heat vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 7: Back Curry and fade Schroder at +325

The Miami Heat will be without Jimmy Butler as they visit the Golden State Warriors on the second night of a back-to-back.

The pregame narrative: Against a weary Heat team, I expect the Warriors to take care of business at home. Prop picks on Stephen Curry and Dennis Schroder round out this +325 SGP.

Check out my Heat vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 7.

Heat vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Warriors -5.5 + Curry over 5.5 assists + Schroder under 3.5 rebounds (+325)

Warriors -5.5 (-230): This is a terrible spot for a visiting Heat squad on a three-game losing skid.

Last night, each of Miami’s starters played over 40 minutes in its 123-118 double-overtime loss to the Sacramento Kings. Now, the Heat head into the Chase Center for its third game in four nights.

Without Butler, who’s serving a seven-game suspension for multiple instances of violating team conduct, the Heat are struggling to drain shots — especially from distance.

Vs. Utah: 9-for-35 (25.7%) from beyond the arc.

At Sacramento: 11-for-42 (26.1%) from three.

Meanwhile, Golden State has effectively defended the perimeter, holding opponents to a 34.8 percent rate on their threes.

Coming off a humiliating 129-99 loss to the Kings, Steve Kerr’s squad should be motivated to wrap up their six-game homestand on a positive note.

The rest advantage significantly favours a Warriors team that I expect to win by double digits. But to be safe, I am opting for an alt-spread.

SGP legs

Curry over 5.5 assists (-136): Golden State’s star point guard sees a favourable matchup to stir up scoring plays.

Curry is averaging 6.3 assists and 10.2 potential assists for the season. Also, he eclipsed this mark in five of his last seven games.

Meanwhile, Miami has allowed 9.7 assists per game to opposing point guards (fifth-most), per BettingPros.

It’s a nice bounce-back spot for Chef Curry, who failed to record a dime against the Kings. Before that, he notched 10 assists over the Sixers.

Playmakers Domantas Sabonis, Colin Sexton and Tyrese Haliburton tallied eight-plus assists in their recent matchups against the Heat.

Schroder under 3.5 rebounds (-148): For the final leg, I’m fading a player prop that’s been very profitable.

Over his 10 games as a Warrior, Schroder is 8-2 against this line and averaging just 2.6 rebounds per game.

The guard has also failed to eclipse 3.5 rebounds in 13 of his last 15 games dating back to his time with the Brooklyn Nets.

Golden State plays a small-ball style and often loses the rebound battle with a height disadvantage.

Even with the loss of Jonathan Kuminga to a sprained ankle, I say this line has been adjusted a tad too high.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET 01/07/2025

Celtics vs. Nuggets prop picks Jan. 7: Bet on Brown, Jokic in marquee matchup

Two championship-hopeful teams meet in the Mile High City on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Jaylen Brown is an elite second option for the Boston Celtics and I want in on his points prop. For the Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is a good pick to do what he does best — stuff the stat sheet.

Check out my Celtics vs. Nuggets prop picks for Jan. 7.

Celtics vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Brown over 21.5 points (-125)

Boston should have no issue scoring against Denver. The reigning NBA champs score the fourth-most points per game (118.5).

The total for this game is currently set at 236 and the Nuggets hit the over in 64.7% of their games (third-most in the NBA). So there’s a solid chance this one gets out of hand.

Brown, the two-way guard, averages 24.3 points per game and has cashed this wager in four of the last six contests.

He starts at small forward since the Celtics run both Derrick White and Jrue Holiday in the backcourt but Brown is built more like a shooting guard, the position he spent the early part of his career playing.

That’s important to note because the Nuggets allow the most PPG (25.3) to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros, and it’s by a wide margin.

For context, the Sacramento Kings allow the second most (24.0).

Key stat: Brown scored 22-plus points in four of his last five games against the Nuggets, scoring 30 or more three times in that span.

Quick pick

Jokic over 41.5 points/rebounds (-112): The Celtics are a terrible matchup for centres, but does it matter?

Boston allows the second-fewest points/rebounds/assists to the position (36.6) but Jokic has had success in the past.

He cleared this line in two games against the Celtics last season, averaging 44.0 PR.

The three-time MVP has somehow taken his game to a new level this year.

He’s scoring 5.1 more points per game and is leading the league in 3-point percentage (47.3%).

Jokic averages 44.5 PR so this line is well below his standard. If you can get past the tough matchup, this is a number worth taking.

Picks made at 10:51 a.m. ET 01/07/2025.

Celtics vs. Nuggets prop picks Jan. 7: Bet on Brown, Jokic in marquee matchup

Two championship-hopeful teams meet in the Mile High City on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Jaylen Brown is an elite second option for the Boston Celtics and I want in on his points prop. For the Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is a good pick to do what he does best — stuff the stat sheet.

Check out my Celtics vs. Nuggets prop picks for Jan. 7.

Celtics vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Embed: #105362

Best Bet: Brown over 21.5 points (-134)

Boston should have no issue scoring against Denver. The reigning NBA champs score the fourth-most points per game (118.5).

The total for this game is currently set at 236 and the Nuggets hit the over in 64.7% of their games (third-most in the NBA). So there’s a solid chance this one gets out of hand.

Brown, the two-way guard, averages 24.3 points per game and has cashed this wager in four of the last six contests.

He starts at small forward since the Celtics run both Derrick White and Jrue Holiday in the backcourt but Brown is built more like a shooting guard, the position he spent the early part of his career playing.

That’s important to note because the Nuggets allow the most PPG (25.3) to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros, and it’s by a wide margin.

For context, the Sacramento Kings allow the second most (24.0).

Key stat: Brown scored 22-plus points in four of his last five games against the Nuggets, scoring 30 or more three times in that span.

Quick pick

Jokic over 50.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120): The Celtics are a terrible matchup for centres, but does it matter?

Boston allows the second-fewest points/rebounds/assists to the position (36.6) but Jokic has had success in the past.

He cleared this line in two games against the Celtics last season, averaging 55.0 PRA.

The three-time MVP has somehow taken his game to a new level this year.

He’s scoring 5.1 more points per game and is leading the league in 3-point percentage (47.3%).

Jokic averages 54.2 PRA so this line is well below his standard. If you can get past the tough matchup, this is a number worth taking.

Picks made at 8:55 a.m. ET 01/07/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 6: Expect Tyler Herro and Tyrese Haliburton to produce on Monday night

Stars Tyler Herro and Tyrese Haliburton are featured in Monday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I expect Herro to wreak havoc from beyond the three-point arc. Also, I like Haliburton to have a big offensive performance against the Brooklyn Nets.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 6.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Herro over 3.5 threes (-120)

This looks like a nice spot for Herro to do damage.

Jimmy Butler is out of the equation and the Heat face a Sacramento Kings team that gets torched on the perimeter and is playing for the second consecutive night.

Herro already carved up the Kings once this season, dropping 27 points and five triples when he saw them in November.

The 24-year-old, averaging a career-high 23.8 points per game, enters with personal-best numbers from beyond the arc.

3.8 threes/game
9.5 attempts/game
40.3% shooting

Herro has cleared this line in just about half of his games and drilled at least three triples in all but nine of 33 contests.

He has both efficiency and volume working on his side against the Kings.

Key stat: Sacramento ranks 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Quick picks

Haliburton over 27.5 points/assists (-125): The Indiana Pacers point guard has cleared this line in five of his last seven contests.

He has blown past it in three of those games, including each of his last two.

Haliburton dropped 33 and 15 against the Heat on Jan. 2 and responded with a 27-point, eight-assist outing versus the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night.

The Nets are a bottom-of-the-barrel defensive unit and the Pacers aren’t much better.

Haliburton is just shy of this line for the season (27.1 pts/ast) but is coming off two straight years in which he averaged at least 20 points and 10 assists.

This line is more than manageable for him in a game where the Pacers should score plenty.

Brooklyn does not guard the 3-point line well and Haliburton can burn teams from deep.

He’s averaging career highs in made threes and attempts, burying a combined 11 in his last two games.

Picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 01/06/2025.

Heat vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Jan. 6: Bet on Sabonis, Monk and Herro in +335 wager

The Miami Heat will be without Jimmy Butler as they visit the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: I expect Tyler Herro to pick up the slack and have a big night on offence. Prop picks on Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk round out this +335 SGP.

Check out my Heat vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 6.

Heat vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Herro over 23.5 points + Sabonis over 5.5 assists + Monk over 2.5 threes (+380)

Herro over 23.5 points (-122): It was hard to pick a side here with the Kings playing on a back-to-back and the Heat airing out their dysfunction in public.

Butler was suspended seven games internally for multiple instances of violating team conduct. In other words, he wants out of Miami and made it known.

https://twitter.com/Demar305/status/1874621770046816561

In Butler’s first game out, Herro struggled against the Utah Jazz. He scored 15 points on 4-of-12 shooting and went 1-for-8 from 3-point range.

Herro can be a streaky scorer, though, and this is a good matchup for him. Sacramento allows the third-most points to shooting guards per game (24.0), according to Fantasy Pros.

In the Heat and Kings’ first meeting of the season back on Nov. 3, Herro had 27 points on 9-of-18 shooting. He also canned five 3s on 11 attempts.

If Miami wants to hold onto its playoff spot, Herro will need to play well in Butler’s absence. This is a great spot for him against a worn-down side.

SGP legs

Sabonis over 5.5 rebounds (-129): Last night, I used this same wager as a leg in my parlay for the Kings vs. Golden State Warriors game.

Sabonis finished with seven assists and hardly played down the stretch as Sacramento ended up blowing out Golden State, 129-99.

The versatile big man played just 29 minutes but filled up the stat sheet.

Once again, De’Aaron Fox is questionable on Monday but missed the game last night, so there’s concern. It’s worth monitoring, but this is a number Sabonis can clear with or without Fox.

Sabonis has six-plus assists in five straight games and averages 6.2 per contest.

Monk over 2.5 threes (-159): For the final leg, I wanted to find another wager I feel good about regardless of Fox’s status.

Over the last two games, Monk has hit 11 of his 20 attempted threes. He’s on a tear right now and this is a modest total.

Since Nov. 27, he is 12-6 against this line. In that time, Monk is averaging 3.2 threes on 8.3 attempts.

Picks made at 12:14 p.m. ET 01/06/2025

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 6: Expect Tyler Herro and Tyrese Haliburton to produce on Monday night

Stars Tyler Herro, Tyrese Haliburton and Anthony Edwards are featured in Monday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I like Herro and Haliburton to produce big offensive nights and am fading Edwards against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 6.

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Best bet: Herro over 3.5 threes (-117)

Embed: #105312

This looks like a nice spot for Herro to do damage.

Jimmy Butler is out of the equation and the Heat face a Sacramento Kings team that gets torched on the perimeter and is playing for the second consecutive night.

Herro already carved up the Kings once this season, dropping 27 points and five triples when he saw them in November.

The 24-year-old, averaging a career-high 23.8 points per game, enters with personal-best numbers from beyond the arc.

3.8 threes/game
9.5 attempts/game
40.3% shooting

Herro has cleared this line in just about half of his games and drilled at least three triples in all but nine of 33 contests.

He has both efficiency and volume working on his side against the Kings.

Key stat: Sacramento ranks 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Quick picks

Haliburton over 27.5 points/assists (-108): The Indiana Pacers point guard has cleared this line in five of his last seven contests.

He has blown past it in three of those games, including each of his last two.

Haliburton dropped 33 and 15 against the Heat on Jan. 2 and responded with a 27-point, eight-assist outing versus the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night.

The Brooklyn Nets are a bottom-of-the-barrel defensive unit and the Pacers aren’t much better.

Haliburton is just shy of this line for the season (27.1 pts/ast) but is coming off two straight years in which he averaged at least 20 points and 10 assists.

This line is more than manageable for him in a game where the Pacers should score plenty.

Brooklyn does not guard the 3-point line well and Haliburton can burn teams from deep.

He’s averaging career highs in made threes and attempts, burying a combined 11 in his last two games.

Edwards under 25.5 points (-120): After torching the league for a month-plus, Edwards’ scoring dipped considerably in December.

He scored 20.4 points per game, bringing his season-long average down by more than two points.

The Minnesota Timberwolves star recently discussed having to distribute more as a result of double teams and then went out and dropped a career-high 53 points on Saturday.

But I’m not expecting another huge outburst tonight.

Minnesota lost Edwards’ 53-point game by 14.

The Clippers are fourth in the NBA in defensive rating.

Edwards has played the Clippers twice this season, scoring 16 and 21 points.

He’s 5-10 against this number in his last 15 games.

Picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 01/06/2025.

Clippers vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Jan. 6: Bet on Minnesota to win, Randle to be active on the glass at +335

The Los Angeles Clippers visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Timberwolves are at home, which is one of the reasons I’m backing them to win. This +335 SGP includes prop picks on Julius Randle and Norman Powell, as well.

Check out my Clippers vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 6.

Clippers vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves moneyline + Randle over 6.5 rebounds + Powell over 2.5 threes (+335)

Timberwolves (-139): Minnesota is an inconsistent team, but maybe that’s part of the reason to get behind them following a three-game skid.

To be fair, two of those three recent losses came against the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder by a combined 11 points.

On the other side, the Clippers are turning heads on the West Coast, starting the season 20-15. They are 8-9 away from home, though, and that’s the situation tonight.

Kawhi Leonard is back from his lengthy injury recovery but was restricted to just 20 minutes in his return.

His return isn’t enough for me to ignore the Clippers’ results on the road. L.A. has lost back-to-back road games, including a 122-86 bashing by the San Antonio Spurs.

The Timberwolves are hard to trust right now but they already have two wins over the Clippers this season, both at home and away.

SGP legs

Randle over 6.5 rebounds (-155): The first time these teams met in Minnesota, Randle had 10 rebounds.

Additionally, the power forward has cleared this line in six of the past eight games.

Rudy Gobert is a vacuum on the glass at times, but when teams have a paint-dominant centre to match, Randle is needed down low to help.

We can see that in recent games:

Jan. 4 vs. Detroit (Jalen Duren): 7 rebounds
Dec. 27 vs. Houston (Alperen Sengun): 8 rebounds
Dec. 25 vs. Dallas (Dereck Lively): 10 rebounds
Dec. 23 vs. Atlanta (Clint Capela): 13 rebounds

That is only a small sample size, but it’s a trend that has been pretty consistent throughout the year.

Clippers centre Ivica Zubac is the definition of a glass-cleaning big man. He averages 12.5 rebounds per game and has 10-plus boards in 29/35 games.

Powell over 2.5 threes (-177): Leonard is the centre of attention in his second game back, but let’s not forget how good Powell has been in his absence.

The shooting guard averages 23.5 points per game and shoots 43.9% from deep. He’s canning 3.6 threes per game on 8.2 attempts.

Powell is a flamethrower from 3-point range and is on the mark more often than not. He’s cashed this wager in 21 of 28 games this season.

With Leonard presumably on a minutes restriction again, Powell should remain an important piece on offence. He shot 4-for-10 from deep in Leonard’s first game back.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET 01/05/2025

Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks Jan. 6: Damian Lillard, Scottie Barnes should both star in Toronto

The Toronto Raptors put their struggling defence to the test on Monday against a hungry Milwaukee Bucks team.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee has dropped four of its past five games but now faces a Toronto defence that has been arguably the worst in the league in recent weeks. I like Damian Lillard as a scorer, and I’m backing Scottie Barnes to pile up assists.

Check out my Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks for Jan. 6.

Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Lillard over 22.5 points (-125)

Toronto has been getting steamrolled on defence recently, so I feel compelled to back someone to put up points for the Bucks.

In their past 15 games, here’s where the Raptors rank on the defensive side:

30th in points (121.3/game)
30th in free throw attempts (26.5)
29th in defensive rating (118.7)
29th in rebounding rate (48.3%)

Lillard, who’s averaging 24.7 PPG this year, looks like a strong candidate to take advantage of this matchup.

Over his past 13 games, the veteran point guard has cashed this bet nine times. He also has 30-plus points in four of his past five matchups against Toronto, dating back to January 2023.

One of the nice things about backing Lillard as a scorer is that his stellar free throw shooting can mask a rough night from the field. He ranks No. 4 all-time in free throw percentage (89.8%) and averages 6.8 attempts per game.

Given how often Toronto is sending opponents to the line right now, Lillard should lean into that aspect of his game if needed.

Key stat: The Raptors allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.1), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Barnes over 5.5 assists (-118): Barnes is averaging 6.6 assists per game this season. That alone makes this pick somewhat compelling to me.

Furthermore, with RJ Barrett (questionable) potentially back in the lineup, Barnes might have an additional scoring outlet to feed. The Barnes-to-Barrett connection has worked well in the past.

In their past 25 games together, Barnes has averaged 7.5 assists and cashed this bet 19 times (76.0%).

This season as a whole, Barnes has gone over 5.5 assists in 14 of 22 games (63.6%).

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 01/06/2025.

NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Jan. 6: Suns reportedly benching Beal, Nurkic amid slump

With the NFL regular season in the rearview and the NHL going with a light slate on Monday, the NBA will be firmly in the spotlight.

The latest: There are nine NBA games on tap for Monday, concluding with the Jimmy Butler-less Miami Heat against the Sacramento Kings. Earlier on, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to snap a 3-6 funk as home favourites against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out our basketball betting lines and NBA schedule for Jan. 6.

NBA schedule: Jan. 6

Visit all of tonight’s NBA markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers
ML odds: Phoenix +137, Philadelphia -167
Spread: 76ers -3.5 (-110)

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Detroit Pistons
ML odds: Portland +210, Detroit -264
Spread: Pistons -6.5 (-110)

Indiana Pacers vs. Brooklyn Nets
ML odds: Indiana -450, Brooklyn +333
Spread: Pacers -10 (-110)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Toronto Raptors
ML odds: Milwaukee -300, Toronto +245
Spread: Bucks -7 (-110)

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks
ML odds: Orlando +475, New York -700
Spread: Knicks -12 (-110)

San Antonio Spurs vs. Chicago Bulls
ML odds: San Antonio -150, Chicago +125
Spread: Spurs -3 (-110)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
ML odds: Dallas +165, Memphis -200
Spread: Grizzlies -5 (-110)

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
ML odds: Los Angeles +115, Minnesota -138
Spread: Timberwolves -2 (-110)

Miami Heat vs. Sacramento Kings
ML odds: Miami +137, Sacramento -167
Spread: Kings -3.5 (-110)

Betting insights

Notable players listed as questionable on the NBA injury report (as of 8:30 a.m.): Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid, RJ Barrett and D’Angelo Russell.

The Suns, who are 1-7 since Dec. 19, are reportedly taking Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic out of their starting lineup on Monday. Phoenix is believed to be among the top suitors for Jimmy Butler. The 76ers are back home after going 4-2 on a recent road trip, which began with a Christmas Day with over the NBA Finals frontrunners, the Boston Celtics.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Pacers’ past six games. But the last time Indiana played Brooklyn, on Dec. 4, the Pacers saw their third-lowest game total of the year (189 points).

Chicago beat San Antonio by 15 points last month, but Victor Wembanyama didn’t play in that game. In his past 10 matchups, Wemby has averaged 29.5 PPG and 11.7 RPG while shooting 37.6% from 3-point range.
In Miami’s first game since suspending Butler — who publicly indicated that he wanted out — the Heat lost at home against the Jazz, 136-100. Now they’re road underdogs against a Kings squad that has won four in a row, with wins over the Warriors, Grizzlies and Mavericks in that span.

Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks Jan. 6: Damian Lillard, Scottie Barnes should both star in Toronto

The Toronto Raptors put their struggling defence to the test on Monday against a hungry Milwaukee Bucks team.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee has dropped four of its past five games but now faces a Toronto defence that has been arguably the worst in the league in recent weeks. I like Damian Lillard as a scorer, and I’m backing Scottie Barnes to pile up assists.

Check out my Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks for Jan. 6.

Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks

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Embed: #105264

Best Bet: Lillard over 23.5 points (-129)

Toronto has been getting steamrolled on defence recently, so I feel compelled to back someone to put up points for the Bucks.

In their past 15 games, here’s where the Raptors rank on the defensive side:

30th in points (121.3/game)
30th in free throw attempts (26.5)
29th in defensive rating (118.7)
29th in rebounding rate (48.3%)

Lillard, who’s averaging 24.7 PPG this year, looks like a strong candidate to take advantage of this matchup.

Over his past 13 games, the veteran point guard has cashed this bet nine times. He also has 30-plus points in four of his past five matchups against Toronto, dating back to January 2023.

One of the nice things about backing Lillard as a scorer is that his stellar free throw shooting can mask a rough night from the field. He ranks No. 4 all-time in free throw percentage (89.8%) and averages 6.8 attempts per game.

Given how often Toronto is sending opponents to the line right now, Lillard should lean into that aspect of his game if needed.

Key stat: The Raptors allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.1), per Betting Pros.

Quick pick

Barnes over 5.5 assists (-106): Barnes is averaging 6.6 assists per game this season. That alone makes this pick somewhat compelling to me.

Furthermore, with RJ Barrett (questionable) potentially back in the lineup, Barnes might have an additional scoring outlet to feed. The Barnes-to-Barrett connection has worked well in the past.

In their past 25 games together, Barnes has averaged 7.5 assists and cashed this bet 19 times (76.0%).

This season as a whole, Barnes has gone over 5.5 assists in 14 of 22 games (63.6%).

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET 01/06/2025.