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Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions Dec. 1: Back Toronto to cover, RJ Barrett to rack up assists

The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat for the second half of a home-and-home series.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a much better team at home so I am backing it to cover an alternate spread. I also like prop picks on RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl to make up a +330 ticket.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 1.

Raptors vs. Heat predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +7.5 + Barrett over 5.5 assists + Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (+330)

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Raptors +7.5 (-200): Toronto is a more competent team at home so I am not too worried about the 10-point loss to the Heat on Friday.

The Raptors are 6-2 against the spread at Scotiabank Arena and 13-7 ATS overall, per Team Rankings.

I know the team is 5-15 but let’s look at some recent results in Toronto:

110-105 win vs. Timberwolves
130-119 win vs. Pacers
131-128 win vs. Kings

The Raptors went 5-0 against this spread at home in November.

SGP legs

Barrett over 5.5 assists (-127): The Canadian has become quite the playmaker for his hometown Raptors.

In Year 7, Barrett is averaging a career-high 6.3 assists, which is 2.2 higher than his previous best (4.1).

And it seems the return of Scottie Barnes isn’t going to deter Barrett from getting his fair share of helpers.

In the past four games, he’s 3-1 against this mark and he has an opportunity to grow on his seven-assist performance in Miami.

The Heat allow the fifth-most assists to point guards (9.8).

Even though Barrett isn’t listed as a PG, I have to consider Immanuel Quickley’s absence and how Barrett and Barnes are dominant ball handlers for the time being.

Both were able to have big nights on Friday with Barnes recording 10 assists and a triple-double.

Toronto is sixth in assists per game (28.6) so a lot of this leg will rely on shooters hitting their shots but I’m sure the opportunities will be there.

Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-113): This is playable as a single, no doubt, but I like the value here and it gives a nice boost to the SGP.

Poeltl averages 11.9 rebounds per game and this is certainly a buy-low spot.

The big man has missed this mark in back-to-back games but recorded 11-plus rebounds in six straight previous contests.

The Heat also provide a great matchup, allowing the third-most rebounds per game (16.4) to opposing centres.

Toronto is fourth in total boards (46.4) and second in offensive rebounds (14.1) per game.

Picks made at 9:39 a.m. on 12/01/24.

49ers vs. Bills Week 13 SNF best bets and odds: Back the Bills to extend win streak

The injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Bills are playing inspired football right now and I feel good about Buffalo winning by at least a touchdown. The over also has value with all the offensive firepower in this game.

Check out my 49ers vs. Bills best bets for the Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup.

49ers vs. Bills best bets

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Best bet: Bills -6 (-110)

What a time to be a Bills fan. The team is cooking right now, led by Josh Allen, who’s making a real case for MVP.

The Bills have scored 30 or more points in five straight weeks. That includes a 30-21 win to hand the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season.

Brock Purdy is questionable for the 49ers but was limited on Thursday. He reportedly threw just two passes at Wednesday’s practice before calling it a day.

Even if Purdy plays, it is quite clear his shoulder is not in good shape.

Either way, I like this line but it’s worth monitoring Purdy’s availability as it would certainly move if he was ruled out.

With or without its QB, San Francisco’s defence is more vulnerable now than in years past.

The 49ers allow the 13th most points per game (23.6)

Seven straight opponents have scored 20 or more against San Fran

The defence allows a 43.7% conversion rate on third down

All three of those stats are concerning for the 49ers and I love the Bills to cover at home on Sunday Night Football.

Key stat: Buffalo is 5-0 at home this season with a +79 point differential.

Quick pick

Over 43.5 points (-134): During the Bills’ six-game win streak, every contest has gone over 40 points. Four cleared this total while the other two ended on 41 and 43.

I believe Buffalo can single-handedly cover most of these points, but I also think the 49ers can contribute a couple of scores.

If Purdy plays, this number gets more enticing. But if he doesn’t, there’s plenty of talent on the 49ers offence to pick up the slack.

Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are all healthy. I can’t see McCaffrey having another yards per carry of 2.8 like he did last week.

After all, the star back has a 4.7 career YPC and has shown he can get it done regardless of who’s at QB.

Even with the 49ers having a terrible offensive game last week, they lost 38-10 and the contest still went over this total.

Picks made at 5:28 p.m. ET 11/29/2024.

49ers vs. Bills Week 13 SNF best bets and odds: Back the Bills to extend win streak

The injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Bills are playing inspired football right now and I feel good about Buffalo winning by at least a touchdown. The over also has value with all the offensive firepower in this game.

Check out my 49ers vs. Bills best bets for the Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup.

49ers vs. Bills best bets

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Best bet: Bills -7

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What a time to be a Bills fan. The team is cooking right now, led by Josh Allen, who’s making a real case for MVP.

The Bills have scored 30 or more points in five straight weeks. That includes a 30-21 win to hand the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season.

Brock Purdy is questionable for the 49ers but was limited on Thursday. He reportedly threw just two passes at Wednesday’s practice before calling it a day. Check his status leading up to game day.

Even if Purdy plays, it is quite clear his shoulder is not in good shape.

Either way, I like this line but it’s worth monitoring Purdy’s availability as it would certainly move if he was ruled out.

With or without its QB, San Francisco’s defence is more vulnerable now than in years past.

The 49ers allow the 13th most points per game (23.6)

Seven straight opponents have scored 20 or more against San Fran

The defence allows a 43.7% conversion rate on third down

All three of those stats are concerning for the 49ers and I love the Bills to cover at home on Sunday Night Football.

Key stat: Buffalo is 5-0 at home this season with a +79 point differential.

Quick pick

Over 43.5 points (-114): During the Bills’ six-game win streak, every contest has gone over 40 points. Four cleared this total while the other two ended on 41 and 43.

I believe Buffalo can single-handedly cover most of these points, but I also think the 49ers can contribute a couple of scores.

If Purdy plays, this number gets more enticing. But if he doesn’t, there’s plenty of talent on the 49ers offence to pick up the slack.

Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are all healthy. I can’t see McCaffrey having another yards per carry of 2.8 like he did last week.

After all, the star back has a 4.7 career YPC and has shown he can get it done regardless of who’s at QB.

Even with the 49ers having a terrible offensive game last week, they lost 38-10 and the contest still went over this total.

Picks made at 4:11 p.m. ET 11/29/2024.

Kings vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 29: Back Sabonis, Fade Ayton in +380 ticket

The Sacramento Kings visit a young Portland Trail Blazers team on Friday.

The pregame narrative: With youth comes a hard-nosed style, and that’s exactly how Portland plays. This parlay consists of a teased-up Blazers spread, a Domantas Sabonis prop and a fade of Deandre Ayton’s point total.

Check out my Kings vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 29.

Kings vs. Trail Blazers predictions

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Parlay: Sabonis over 19.5 points + Ayton under 16.5 points + Trail Blazers +10.5 (380)

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Sabonis over 19.5 points (-143): Sabonis often takes a back seat in the Kings’ offence, but that hasn’t been the case lately.

Over the last 11 games, Sabonis is 9-2 against this line. He’s averaging 20.6 points per game in that time on 61.2% shooting.

The other good news for this bet is that DeMar DeRozan has already been announced out for tonight’s contest.

In his two most recent games without DeRozan, Sabonis scored 23 and 24 points, clearing this line with relaitve ease.

Back in his first meeting with Portland this season, Sabonis scored 16 points but only took eight shots, making five of them.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the big man will take more shots tonight with DeRozan sidelined.

SGP legs

Ayton under 16.5 points (-175): This line is too high for Ayton for a couple of reasons.

The Kings allow the third-fewest points per game to opposing centres (19.1).

Ayton averages 13.5 points per game.

In fact, he’s gone under this mark in three straight and in eight of 12 games this season.

Ayton did go off for 20 against the Kings in their first meeting, but I’m selling high on him and trusting the season-long results that indicate this as a bad matchup.

Trail Blazers +10.5 (-186): To close this SGP out, let’s tease up Portland’s spread.

The Blazers are a top team against the spread (11-7-1) and even better at home (5-3).

Overall, Portland is 11-8 against this line and six of those blowout losses came on the road.

Sacramento came into the season with lofty expectations but it has been underwhelming up to this point.

The Kings have a record of 9-10 and are 7-11-1 ATS. They have only covered this spread in two away games.

Sacramento is 1-4 in its last five and I have no confidence in this team blowing out anybody right now — including the feisty Trail Blazers.

Picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 11/29/24.

NHL prop picks Nov. 29: Expect Connor McDavid to find the back of the net on Friday

Today’s 14-game NHL slate provides plenty of options for prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Connor McDavid is on a tear right now and I like him to score against the Utah Hockey Club. I also like the value on Miro Heiskanen’s point prop.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Nov. 29.

NHL prop picks

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Best bet: McDavid to score a goal (+100)

McDavid is playing like he’s inspired by Alex Ovechkin’s chase of the all-time NHL goal record.

The Oilers captain has scored in six of the last eight games, tallying eight goals total in that span.

In November, McDavid has 18 points in nine games. But since his odds to score two-plus points is -134, I’d rather take the risk on him potting another goal.

Utah isn’t a strong defensive team, allowing the 13th-most goals per game (3.14).

The Hockey Club also takes the most penalty minutes per game (12.5) and has a pedestrian 77.4% penalty kill success rate.

There’s a real chance McDavid makes a run for the Hart Trophy, and if so, he’ll need to stay hot as a scorer.

Key stat: McDavid is 6-3 against this prop since returning from injury earlier this month.

Quick pick

Heiskenen to record a point (-125): Heiskanen has started the season slow by his standards but I have good reason to get behind the Stars’ defenceman tonight.

Heiskanen has points in three straight games.

Colorado allows the third-most goals per game (3.65).

The Avs are a weird case. They are 2-1 in the last three games but allowed 13 goals in that span. Overall, the team has allowed four-plus goals 11 times this season.

A major reason for Colorado’s inconsistency is goaltending. Alexandar Georgiev has a 7-5 record despite owning a pitiful 3.27 GAA and .875 SV% and the third-worst goals saved above expected (-7.6).

Heiskanen leads the Stars in time on ice with 24:53 per game. I like his chances of getting on the score sheet against the Avalanche.

NHL picks made at 1:16 p.m. on 11/29/2024.

NHL prop picks Nov. 29: Expect Connor McDavid to find the back of the net on Friday

Today’s 14-game NHL slate provides plenty of options for prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Connor McDavid is on a tear right now and I like him to score against the Utah Hockey Club. I also like the value on Miro Heiskanen’s point prop.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Nov. 29.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #101982

Best bet: McDavid to score a goal (+120)

McDavid is playing like he’s inspired by Alex Ovechkin’s chase of the all-time NHL goal record.

The Oilers captain has scored in six of the last eight games, tallying eight goals total in that span.

In November, McDavid has 18 points in nine games. But since his odds to score two-plus points is -134, I’d rather take the risk on him potting another goal.

Utah isn’t a strong defensive team, allowing the 13th-most goals per game (3.14).

The Hockey Club also takes the most penalty minutes per game (12.5) and has a pedestrian 77.4% penalty kill success rate.

There’s a real chance McDavid makes a run for the Hart Trophy, and if so, he’ll need to stay hot as a scorer.

Key stat: McDavid is 6-3 against this prop since returning from injury earlier this month.

Quick pick

Heiskenen to record a point (-124): Heiskanen has started the season slow by his standards but I have good reason to get behind the Stars’ defenceman tonight.

Heiskanen has points in three straight games.

Colorado allows the third-most goals per game (3.65).

The Avs are a weird case. They are 2-1 in the last three games but allowed 13 goals in that span. Overall, the team has allowed four-plus goals 11 times this season.

A major reason for Colorado’s inconsistency is goaltending. Alexandar Georgiev has a 7-5 record despite owning a pitiful 3.27 GAA and .875 SV% and the third-worst goals saved above expected (-7.6).

Heiskanen leads the Stars in time on ice with 24:53 per game. I like his chances of getting on the score sheet against the Avalanche.

Pastrnak to score 2+ points (+195): I like this bet for half a unit. The Penguins are woeful on defence, allowing the most goals against per game (3.96) and third most shots (32.5).

That alone makes this a prime matchup for Pastrnak, who leads the Bruins with 22 points in 24 games.

Pastrnak has been disappointing this season for a player of his calibre. He scored 213 points in 164 games across the last two seasons but is just under his typical point-per-game pace this year.

However, he still has six games with multiple points this season, including a three-point performance against the New York Islanders on Wednesday.

NHL picks made at 12:02 p.m. on 11/29/2024.

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Thunder vs. Lakers prop picks Nov. 29: Back LeBron James to be active on the glass

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers headline a day full of NBA Cup action.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder are a strong defensive team but can struggle to rebound. That’s why I am taking LeBron James to go over his rebound prop. I’m also interested in a pick on Isaiah Hartenstein.

Check out my Thunder vs. Lakers prop picks for Nov. 29.

Thunder vs. Lakers prop picks

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Best Bet: LeBron over 7.5 rebounds (-138)

Since the Thunder are such a good defensive team (No. 1 in defensive rating), I would rather resort to a rebounds prop than a points prop for LeBron.

Plus, LeBron is one of only a few Lakers who can rebound efficiently.

Los Angeles grabs the third-fewest rebounds per game (40.1), but that hasn’t been James’ fault. He’s cleared this line in seven of the last 10 games.

Additionally, OKC isn’t a great rebounding team either, recording the 10th-fewest per game (42.8).

Both teams play at a high pace, which means there should be plenty of opportunities for LeBron to rebound.

Key stat: James is averaging 9.3 boards in his past 10 games.

Quick pick

Hartenstein over 10.5 rebounds (-118): This is a play for the hardcore ball fans, but I love it.

Hartenstein showed what he could for the Knicks in the playoffs last season and now steps into a starting role for the West’s best team while Chet Holmgren is sidelined.

Let’s look at his stats since making his season debut last week:

Nov. 20 vs. Trailblazers: 28 minutes, 14 rebounds

Nov. 25 vs. Kings: 31 minutes, 10 rebounds

Nov. 27 vs. Warriors: 30 minutes, 14 rebounds

The Thunder will continue to lean on Hartenstein until Holmgren returns and I can’t say I blame them.

Fans may remember the lineup OKC used before Hartenstein was available, which included five starters below the height of 6-foot-7.

And as mentioned before, the Lakers struggle to rebound. They allow the third-most boards per game (16.8) to opposing centres.

Hartenstein is the only true big on the Thunder right now and I believe he can compete with Anthony Davis around the basket.

Picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET 11/29/2024.

Thunder vs. Lakers prop picks Nov. 29: Back LeBron James to be active on the glass

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers headline a day full of NBA Cup action.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder are a strong defensive team but can struggle to rebound. That’s why I am taking LeBron James to go over his rebound prop. I’m also interested in a pick on Isaiah Hartenstein.

Check out my Thunder vs. Lakers prop picks for Nov. 29.

Thunder vs. Lakers prop picks

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Embed: #101967

Best Bet: LeBron over 7.5 rebounds (-130)

Since the Thunder are such a good defensive team (No. 1 in defensive rating), I would rather resort to a rebounds prop than a points prop for LeBron.

Plus, LeBron is one of only a few Lakers who can rebound efficiently.

Los Angeles grabs the third-fewest rebounds per game (40.1), but that hasn’t been James’ fault. He’s cleared this line in seven of the last 10 games.

Additionally, OKC isn’t a great rebounding team either, recording the 10th-fewest per game (42.8).

Both teams play at a high pace, which means there should be plenty of opportunities for LeBron to rebound.

Key stat: James is averaging 9.3 boards in his past 10 games.

Quick pick

Hartenstein over 10.5 rebounds (-132): This is a play for the hardcore ball fans, but I love it.

Hartenstein showed what he could for the Knicks in the playoffs last season and now steps into a starting role for the West’s best team while Chet Holmgren is sidelined.

Let’s look at his stats since making his season debut last week:

Nov. 20 vs. Trailblazers: 28 minutes, 14 rebounds

Nov. 25 vs. Kings: 31 minutes, 10 rebounds

Nov. 27 vs. Warriors: 30 minutes, 14 rebounds

The Thunder will continue to lean on Hartenstein until Holmgren returns and I can’t say I blame them.

Fans may remember the lineup OKC used before Hartenstein was available, which included five starters below the height of 6-foot-7.

And as mentioned before, the Lakers struggle to rebound. They allow the third-most boards per game (16.8) to opposing centres.

Hartenstein is the only true big on the Thunder right now and I believe he can compete with Anthony Davis around the basket.

Picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET 11/29/2024.

Best NFL prop picks for Thanksgiving Day: Bet on Tagovailoa, Dowdle and Moore on Thursday

Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States and the NFL is providing fans with three exciting games.

The pregame narrative: Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear since returning from injury and I like him to keep it going against the Green Bay Packers. In the other games, I’m siding with prop picks on Rico Dowdle and DJ Moore.

Check out the best NFL prop picks for American Thanksgiving on Nov. 28.

NFL prop picks

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Best bet: Tagovailoa over 241.5 passing yards (-120)

Since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has been cooking for the Dolphins.

He has 11 TDs and just one INT

Tua has cleared this line in back-to-back weeks

He averaged 302.5 passing yards in those games

It feels like Tagovailoa is getting back to the gunslinger fans have become accustomed to, as the QB has attempted 36-plus passes in consecutive weeks.

Although Green Bay has been good defensively this season, the side allows opposing QBs to complete 65.2% of passes which ranks right in the middle of the pack (16th).

Tagovailoa averages 251.4 passing yards per game which is down from last season’s average of 272.0. I expect the QB to keep building on recent results and finish the season strong.

Key stat: Tua is 3-1 against this line in games where he attempted 35 or more passes.

Quick picks

Dowdle over 68.5 rushing yards (-120): With both teams turning to backup QBs, I’ll opt to get behind one of the starting running backs.

Dowdle came alive last week and ran for 86 yards on 19 attempts in Dallas’ 34-26 upset win over the Washington Commanders.

In fact, let’s look at Dowdle’s stats in the other games where he rushed over 12 times:

Week 10: 12 rushes, 53 yards
Week 9: 12 rushes, 75 yards
Week 5: 20 rushes, 87 yards

It’s clear the key is volume and I think there will be enough against the Giants.

Dallas is a 4-point favourite so there’s reason to believe it will be ahead. If that’s the case, Dowdle will be responsible for taking care of the ball and running the clock.

Dowdle’s snap share has increased steadily throughout the season (61% last week) so this is a great spot to jump in and tail the Cowboys’ newest lead back.

Moore over 4.5 receptions (-134): The Detroit Lions have a great run defence so the Chicago Bears will more than likely need to pass for success.

And there’s no one better to get behind than Moore. He leads the Bears in receptions (54) and targets (80) to this point.

In the past two weeks, Moore has 14 catches (seven each week) for 168 yards.

As Caleb Williams starts to figure it out, his No. 1 receiver is the main beneficiary.

This year’s first-overall pick has thrown for 571 yards with a 70.5% completion rate across those games.

Williams has only turned the ball over once since Week 3 which means lengthier drives and more catch opportunities for Moore.

Even though the Lions allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards (94.9), their secondary is far from elite, giving up the eighth-most passing yards (227.2).

Picks made at 3:24 p.m. ET on 11/26/2024.

Best NFL prop picks for Thanksgiving Day: Bet on Tagovailoa, Dowdle and Moore on Thursday

Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States and the NFL is providing fans with three exciting games.

The pregame narrative: Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear since returning from injury and I like him to keep it going against the Green Bay Packers. In the other games, I’m siding with prop picks on Rico Dowdle and DJ Moore.

Check out the best NFL prop picks for American Thanksgiving on Nov. 28.

NFL prop picks

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Go to full NFL Thanksgiving betting markets.

Best bet: Tagovailoa over 237.5 passing yards (-113)

Since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has been cooking for the Dolphins.

He has 11 TDs and just one INT

Tua has cleared this line in back-to-back weeks

He averaged 302.5 passing yards in those games

It feels like Tagovailoa is getting back to the gunslinger fans have become accustomed to, as the QB has attempted 36-plus passes in consecutive weeks.

Although Green Bay has been good defensively this season, the side allows opposing QBs to complete 65.2% of passes which ranks right in the middle of the pack (16th).

Tagovailoa averages 251.4 passing yards per game which is down from last season’s average of 272.0. I expect the QB to keep building on recent results and finish the season strong.

Key stat: Tua is 3-1 against this line in games where he attempted 35 or more passes.

Quick picks

Dowdle over 66.5 rushing yards (-117): With both teams turning to backup QBs, I’ll opt to get behind one of the starting running backs.

Dowdle came alive last week and ran for 86 yards on 19 attempts in Dallas’ 34-26 upset win over the Washington Commanders.

In fact, let’s look at Dowdle’s stats in the other games where he rushed over 12 times:

Week 10: 12 rushes, 53 yards
Week 9: 12 rushes, 75 yards
Week 5: 20 rushes, 87 yards

It’s clear the key is volume and I think there will be enough against the Giants.

Dallas is a 4-point favourite so there’s reason to believe it will be ahead. If that’s the case, Dowdle will be responsible for taking care of the ball and running the clock.

Dowdle’s snap share has increased steadily throughout the season (61% last week) so this is a great spot to jump in and tail the Cowboys’ newest lead back.

Moore over 4.5 receptions (-113): The Detroit Lions have a great run defence so the Chicago Bears will more than likely need to pass for success.

And there’s no one better to get behind than Moore. He leads the Bears in receptions (54) and targets (80) to this point.

In the past two weeks, Moore has 14 catches (seven each week) for 168 yards.

As Caleb Williams starts to figure it out, his No. 1 receiver is the main beneficiary.

This year’s first-overall pick has thrown for 571 yards with a 70.5% completion rate across those games.

Williams has only turned the ball over once since Week 3 which means lengthier drives and more catch opportunities for Moore.

Even though the Lions allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards (94.9), their secondary is far from elite, giving up the eighth-most passing yards (227.2).

Picks made at 9:24 a.m. ET on 11/26/2024.