Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 3: Bet the over and for Barger to record an RBI

Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals close out a three-game series with a rubber match on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Yesterday’s game was a quiet one for both lineups, but I don’t expect that to carry over for today’s matinee. Toronto still has the most potent offence of the second half, and guys like Addison Barger are helping to make that happen.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 3, featuring prop bets on Barger and Bobby Witt Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals

Best bet: Over 8 runs (-110)

Neither team’s offence really got rolling yesterday in an eventual 4-2 win for Toronto. But I’m not letting that one game shift how I feel about this run total.

  • The Blue Jays have posted an MLB-best 134 wRC+ since the all-star break. They lead the majors in on-base percentage in that span (.362) and rank fifth in runs per game (5.44).
  • On the season, Toronto has the highest overs rate in the league (60-47-5, 56.1%), per Team Rankings.

Royals starter Seth Lugo can be tough to crack, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest lately. Lugo’s 5.27 FIP in July was his highest of any month this season.

Also, Lugo’s discrepancy between his actual ERA (3.03) and his expected ERA (4.86), as tracked by Baseball Savant, is the ninth-widest margin in the majors.

Offensively, the Royals have been excellent since the break, just like the Jays. In that time, KC ranks sixth in home runs and runs per game (5.43)

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has been all over the place lately, with a 6.37 ERA in his past six starts.

So neither starter enters Sunday in his sharpest form, while both offences have been putting up strong numbers.

Key stat: The over on this total is 9-3 in Bassitt’s past 12 starts. The average total in those games was 11.83 runs.

Quick pick

Witt over 0.5 runs (-118): I backed Witt to score at plus-money odds yesterday, and he came up empty in an 0-for-4 day. But I still think there’s value at a price like this.

Even with yesterday’s goose egg, look at what the star shortstop has accomplished since July 1:

  • 133 wRC+
  • .855 OPS
  • 21 runs
  • 1+ runs in 16 of 25 games

Witt bats in the No. 2 spot of the Royals’ lineup, with three talented hitters right behind him: Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. All three of those guys have a 115 wRC+ or better since June 1.

Bassitt’s past six starts have been a rollercoaster ride, with 40 hits, nine walks and four hit batsmen allowed in 29.2 innings. That’s a lot of foot traffic.

Last year, Witt singled and scored against Bassitt in their lone game against each other.

Barger over 0.5 RBI (+150): In a game that I expect to feature some offence, Barger is a guy worth targeting to help drive the boat.

In 22 games since July 1, Barger has had 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. That’s tied for the third-most in MLB.

The third baseman has routinely risen to the occasion, too, posting a 1.188 OPS (221 wRC+) in those opportunities.

Lugo has allowed a .798 OPS to left-hitting players this season, which is nearly 250 points north of what he allows to righties. Barger will be dangerous today.

Blue Jays best bets made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 08/03/2025.

Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 3: Bet the over and for Barger to record an RBI

Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals close out a three-game series with a rubber match on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Yesterday’s game was a quiet one for both lineups, but I don’t expect that to carry over for today’s matinee. Toronto still has the most potent offence of the second half, and guys like Addison Barger are helping to make that happen.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 3, featuring prop bets on Barger and Bobby Witt Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals

Best bet: Over 8 runs (-115)

Neither team’s offence really got rolling yesterday in an eventual 4-2 win for Toronto. But I’m not letting that one game shift how I feel about this run total.

  • The Blue Jays have posted an MLB-best 134 wRC+ since the all-star break. They lead the majors in on-base percentage in that span (.362) and rank fifth in runs per game (5.44).
  • On the season, Toronto has the highest overs rate in the league (60-47-5, 56.1%), per Team Rankings.

Royals starter Seth Lugo can be tough to crack, but he hasn’t been at his sharpest lately. Lugo’s 5.27 FIP in July was his highest of any month this season.

Also, Lugo’s discrepancy between his actual ERA (3.03) and his expected ERA (4.86), as tracked by Baseball Savant, is the ninth-widest margin in the majors.

Offensively, the Royals have been excellent since the break, just like the Jays. In that time, KC ranks sixth in home runs and runs per game (5.43)

Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has been all over the place lately, with a 6.37 ERA in his past six starts.

So neither starter enters Sunday in his sharpest form, while both offences have been putting up strong numbers.

Key stat: The over on this total is 9-3 in Bassitt’s past 12 starts. The average total in those games was 11.83 runs.

Embed: #116561

Quick pick

Witt over 0.5 runs (+102): I backed Witt to score at plus-money odds yesterday, and he came up empty in an 0-for-4 day. But I still think there’s value at a price like this.

Even with yesterday’s goose egg, look at what the star shortstop has accomplished since July 1:

  • 133 wRC+
  • .855 OPS
  • 21 runs
  • 1+ runs in 16 of 25 games

Witt bats in the No. 2 spot of the Royals’ lineup, with three talented hitters right behind him: Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. All three of those guys have a 115 wRC+ or better since June 1.

Bassitt’s past six starts have been a rollercoaster ride, with 40 hits, nine walks and four hit batsmen allowed in 29.2 innings. That’s a lot of foot traffic.

Last year, Witt singled and scored against Bassitt in their lone game against each other.

Barger over 0.5 RBI (+150): In a game that I expect to feature some offence, Barger is a guy worth targeting to help drive the boat.

In 22 games since July 1, Barger has had 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. That’s tied for the third-most in MLB.

The third baseman has routinely risen to the occasion, too, posting a 1.188 OPS (221 wRC+) in those opportunities.

Lugo has allowed a .798 OPS to left-hitting players this season, which is nearly 250 points north of what he allows to righties. Barger will be dangerous today.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08/03/2025.

Braves vs. Reds Speedway Classic prop bets: Expect Chase Burns to be revved up in Bristol

Braves vs. Reds prop bets

From inside the track at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds take part in the 2025 Speedway Classic on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: In a game that is set to break MLB’s regular-season attendance record, fans will be treated to an elite pitching matchup with plenty of horsepower: Spencer Strider vs. Chase Burns. Atlanta is a slight favourite in this neutral-site rubber match.

Check out my Braves vs. Reds prop bets, featuring Burns and Austin Riley.

Braves vs. Reds prop bets

Best Bet: Burns over 7.5 Ks (+105)

Burns’ opportunity to showcase his elite fastball velocity from the confines of a racetrack is just too perfect.

The No. 2 overall pick from last summer averages 98.3 mph on his heater, which ranks in the 96th percentile, per Baseball Savant. And it helps him mow down a lot of hitters.

Through 27.1 big-league innings, Burns has 45 strikeouts. That’s a 14.8 K/9 rate, which far exceeds all qualified pitchers (Dylan Cease is first at 11.6 K/9).

Burns’ strikeout efficiency might not be sustainable, but he’s accustomed to huge K counts at every level. In his junior year at Wake Forest, he fanned 191 batters in 100.0 innings (17.2 K/9).

And before making the leap to the majors, he’d posted a 12.1 K/9 in 13 minor-league starts.

Walks have been an issue at times. But some selective wildness can work in Burns’ favour when the other team doesn’t know where his 98-mph fastballs are going.

That kind of heat helps his slider play up, too, which has led to a 44.0% whiff rate on the secondary pitch.

Atlanta should be a plus matchup for Burns, given that the team has the eighth-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers (22.5%). Furthermore, the Braves have the eighth-highest K% vs. sliders from RHPs (28.5%).

Key stat: Burns has pitched into the sixth inning in three straight starts, compiling exactly 10 Ks in each of them.

Best MLB picks

Riley under 0.5 hits (+150): Riley is one of the Braves’ best players, but I’m not confident he can take the heat on the track tonight.

Against pitches with a 98 mph velocity or above, Riley is just 2-for-22 (.091) this season. And you know Burns will be pumping upper-90s fastballs consistently against him.

Riley hasn’t fared well against sliders from RHPs, either. He’s just 10-for-57 (.175) with 20 Ks.

The third baseman is hitless in four of his past eight games. In his first look at Burns, I can definitely see him coming up empty.

Braves vs. Reds prop bets made at 1:18 p.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

Cardinals vs. Padres SGP predictions Aug. 2: San Diego should extend win streak to seven games

Cardinals vs. Padres predictions

With eyes on a seventh consecutive win, the San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: St. Louis sends Michael McGreevy to the mound to face San Diego for a second time in seven days. The Padres torched McGreevy for seven runs over 4.2 innings last time, and they’re favoured to win the rematch.

Check out my Cardinals vs. Padres predictions, featuring Brendan Donovan and Ryan O’Hearn.

Cardinals vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres ML | Donovan over 0.5 hits | O’Hearn over 1.5 bases (+370)

Padres moneyline (-148): The Padres have pushed their chips in.

General manager A.J. Preller was busy at the trade deadline, as he often is, added to the rotation, the bullpen and the heart of San Diego’s lineup.

The flurry of activity was a vote of confidence in a squad that has now won six games in a row, sitting just 3.0 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

San Diego has looked like a dangerous team lately, posting the best ERA since the all-star break (2.68). The Padres are eighth in wRC+ in that span, too (114).

Over the same timeframe, St. Louis is 18th in ERA (4.43) and 24th in wRC+ (87).

The Cardinals have lost five of their past six games, and three of those defeats came against the Padres.

Since May 1, San Diego is 12-3 with starter Randy Vasquez on the mound.

Embed: #116555

MLB SGP legs

Donovan over 0.5 hits (-275): Donovan has been cold at the plate in the past week or so, but I still think he’s a promising choice to get a hit on Saturday night.

The left-hitting infielder will have a platoon advantage vs. Vasquez, who has allowed a .276 BA and an .833 OPS to LHHs this season.

Donovan is batting .312 with an .838 OPS vs. RHPs. He also has a hit in 70 of 102 games this year (68.6%).

According to Baseball Savant, Donovan has a .296 xBA (94th percentile).

O’Hearn over 1.5 total bases (+128): Tonight should be O’Hearn’s first start for San Diego after the team traded for him on deadline day.

What the Padres traded for is a power bat that can really punish right-handed pitching.

O’Hearn cashed this bet in each of his final four starts for Baltimore. He has a .293/.385/.488 slash line vs. RHPs this year, and all 13 of his homers have come against righties.

McGreevy, who uses all three fastball variations, throws fastballs about 65% of the time to left-hitting players. That’s good news for this prop.

O’Hearn is slugging .550 — with a .643 xSLG — against fastballs from righties.

Cardinals vs. Padres predictions made at 3:15 p.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Braves vs. Reds Speedway Classic prop bets: Expect Chase Burns to be revved up in Bristol

Braves vs. Reds prop bets

From inside the track at Bristol Motor Speedway, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds take part in the 2025 Speedway Classic on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: In a game that is set to break MLB’s regular-season attendance record, fans will be treated to an elite pitching matchup with plenty of horsepower: Spencer Strider vs. Chase Burns. Atlanta is a slight favourite in this neutral-site rubber match.

Check out my Braves vs. Reds prop bets, featuring Burns and Austin Riley.

Braves vs. Reds prop bets

Best Bet: Burns over 7.5 Ks (+114)

Burns’ opportunity to showcase his elite fastball velocity from the confines of a racetrack is just too perfect.

The No. 2 overall pick from last summer averages 98.3 mph on his heater, which ranks in the 96th percentile, per Baseball Savant. And it helps him mow down a lot of hitters.

Through 27.1 big-league innings, Burns has 45 strikeouts. That’s a 14.8 K/9 rate, which far exceeds all qualified pitchers (Dylan Cease is first at 11.6 K/9).

Burns’ strikeout efficiency might not be sustainable, but he’s accustomed to huge K counts at every level. In his junior year at Wake Forest, he fanned 191 batters in 100.0 innings (17.2 K/9).

And before making the leap to the majors, he’d posted a 12.1 K/9 in 13 minor-league starts.

Walks have been an issue at times. But some selective wildness can work in Burns’ favour when the other team doesn’t know where his 98-mph fastballs are going.

That kind of heat helps his slider play up, too, which has led to a 44.0% whiff rate on the secondary pitch.

Atlanta should be a plus matchup for Burns, given that the team has the eighth-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers (22.5%). Furthermore, the Braves have the eighth-highest K% vs. sliders from RHPs (28.5%).

Key stat: Burns has pitched into the sixth inning in three straight starts, compiling exactly 10 Ks in each of them.

Embed: #116552

Best MLB picks

Riley under 0.5 hits (+170): Riley is one of the Braves’ best players, but I’m not confident he can take the heat on the track tonight.

Against pitches with a 98 mph velocity or above, Riley is just 2-for-22 (.091) this season. And you know Burns will be pumping upper-90s fastballs consistently against him.

Riley hasn’t fared well against sliders from RHPs, either. He’s just 10-for-57 (.175) with 20 Ks.

The third baseman is hitless in four of his past eight games. In his first look at Burns, I can definitely see him coming up empty.

Braves vs. Reds prop bets made at 1:18 p.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 2: Tyler Soderstrom has value vs. a struggling Zac Gallen

MLB home run picks

Tonight’s top MLB home run pick comes from the Bay Area, where a struggling Zac Gallen must contend with an A’s team in a groove.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: There are a handful of viable HR picks in the A’s lineup tonight, but Tyler Soderstrom stood out to me from a value standpoint. Earlier on Saturday, Alex Bregman is a worthy pick to go deep against his former team.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 2.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Soderstrom to hit a home run (+475)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a tailspin that prompted them to be sellers at the trade deadline. Looking at where this season has gone wrong for the Snakes, one of the key culprits is Gallen.

Two years removed from an all-star bid and an NL Cy Young podium finish, Gallen has been one of MLB’s worst pitchers.

He has a 5.60 ERA — two full runs north of his 3.60 career ERA — and has allowed an NL-high 23 home runs.

Gallen also ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xERA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Tonight, Gallen will pitch inside Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, which is among the most offence-friendly venues in the league. Yet another reason to back someone in the A’s lineup to go yard.

I’ve settled on Soderstrom, who has a platoon advantage and is swinging a hot bat lately.

Soderstrom is slugging .506 vs. RHPs this year, and 18 of his 19 HRs have come in righty-on-lefty matchups.

Ideally, the outfielder sits on a four-seam fastball and barrels it up. He’s batting .338 with a .632 SLG vs. four-seamers from RHPs this season. Gallen’s four-seamer averages 93.3 mph, which is 1.6 mph below average.

Key stat: In his past 21 games, Soderstrom has five HRs and a .584 SLG.

Best HR predictions

Bregman to hit a home run (+320): When Bregman signed with the Red Sox this offseason, much was made of his career exploits at Fenway Park.

Now as a member of the home team, he has continued to do plenty of damage in Boston.

  • Career at Fenway: 54 games, 12 HRs, .325/.429/.615 slash line
  • 2025 season at Fenway: 33 games, 5 HRs, .292/.386/.525 slash line

The all-star third baseman has three homers in his past 10 games, posting a .667 SLG in that span.

Houston sends left-hander Colton Gordon to the mound today, and Gordon’s numbers versus right-hitting players are disastrous.

In 13 games, Gordon has allowed 12 homers and a .309/.336/.569 slash line vs. RHHs.

The only thing Gordon does really well is avoid walks. His 4.0% walk rate ranks in the 98th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

That just means Bregman should have every opportunity to tee off.

MLB home run picks made at 11:46 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 2: Bobby Witt Jr. should fuel Kansas City’s offence

Blue Jays best bets

Max Scherzer is back on the mound Saturday afternoon for the Toronto Blue Jays, as they host the Kansas City Royals.

The pregame narrative: KC won last night’s game, 9-3, marking Toronto’s fifth loss in six games. The Jays are favourites at Rogers Centre this afternoon in a matchup with a lower-than-usual projected total.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 2, featuring prop bets on Scherzer and Bobby Witt Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals

Best bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (+100)

This price seems too good to be true for one of baseball’s brightest young stars.

Witt homered and walked twice vs. the Blue Jays last night, extending a stellar stretch of production that goes back to the beginning of July:

  • .302 BA
  • .890 OPS
  • 21 runs
  • 1+ runs in 16 of 24 games

Witt’s xBA since July 1 is .302, per Baseball Savant, and that directly aligns with his actual batting average. So he hasn’t been lucking his way into this.

His 100th-percentile sprint speed means he’s always a threat to steal a base. And his 89th-percentile xSLG (.525) means that he’s got plenty of power to go with all that speed.

Witt bats in the No. 2 spot of the Royals’ lineup, with three accomplished hitters right behind him: Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. All three of those guys have a 119 wRC+ or better since June 1.

Max Scherzer will throw mostly four-seamers and sliders to right-hitting players, and that’s a combo that should be fine for Witt.

The star shortstop has a .302 xBA and a .574 xSLG against those pitches from righties.

Key stat: Witt has scored a run in eight of his past 10 games.

Quick pick

Scherzer under 17.5 outs (+115): I faded Scherzer’s outs total last time (15.5), and he blew it out of the water with a 7.0-inning quality start against a floundering Tigers lineup.

This line movement, combined with the price, makes me want to try taking the under again.

Scherzer has gone under this mark in five of his seven starts, averaging 5.0 IP this season. He’s had a thumb issue flare up a few times, and though he seems to be managing it fine, there’s always a risk that it resurfaces.

Also, remember that the Tigers were in a massive slump when Scherzer faced them last time out. That’s not the case with the Royals this weekend.

KC is ninth in the majors in team wRC+ over the past 30 days (110), which includes the third-highest SLG (.465).

Toronto’s bullpen is in solid shape thanks to Thursday’s off-day (and another off-day coming up on Aug. 7). There are four relievers with multiple rest days entering this matchup.

Over 8 runs (-110): Noah Cameron is having a remarkable rookie season for KC, compiling a 2.44 ERA over 14 starts.

He’ll face one of his toughest tests of the year on Saturday, though, in a road matchup against a very selective Blue Jays lineup.

Against southpaws, Toronto has the best on-base percentage in the league (.339). The Jays also have the lowest K rate (18.0%), the second-highest walk rate (10.0%) and the fourth-highest BA (.261).

I expect the Jays to really make Cameron work. This over is 7-2-1 in Toronto’s past 10 games.

In Scherzer’s starts this year, this over is 6-1. It’s just not a significant total for two offences that are clicking.

Blue Jays best bets made at 11:26 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 2: Tyler Soderstrom has value vs. a struggling Zac Gallen

MLB home run picks

Tonight’s top MLB home run pick comes from the Bay Area, where a struggling Zac Gallen must contend with an A’s team in a groove.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: There are a handful of viable HR picks in the A’s lineup tonight, but Tyler Soderstrom stood out to me from a value standpoint. Earlier on Saturday, Alex Bregman is a worthy pick to go deep against his former team.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 2.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Soderstrom to hit a home run (+475)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a tailspin that prompted them to be sellers at the trade deadline. Looking at where this season has gone wrong for the Snakes, one of the key culprits is Gallen.

Two years removed from an all-star bid and an NL Cy Young podium finish, Gallen has been one of MLB’s worst pitchers.

He has a 5.60 ERA — two full runs north of his 3.60 career ERA — and has allowed an NL-high 23 home runs.

Gallen also ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xERA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Tonight, Gallen will pitch inside Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, which is among the most offence-friendly venues in the league. Yet another reason to back someone in the A’s lineup to go yard.

I’ve settled on Soderstrom, who has a platoon advantage and is swinging a hot bat lately.

Soderstrom is slugging .506 vs. RHPs this year, and 18 of his 19 HRs have come in righty-on-lefty matchups.

Ideally, the outfielder sits on a four-seam fastball and barrels it up. He’s batting .338 with a .632 SLG vs. four-seamers from RHPs this season. Gallen’s four-seamer averages 93.3 mph, which is 1.6 mph below average.

Key stat: In his past 21 games, Soderstrom has five HRs and a .584 SLG.

Embed: #116540

Best HR predictions

Bregman to hit a home run (+320): When Bregman signed with the Red Sox this offseason, much was made of his career exploits at Fenway Park.

Now as a member of the home team, he has continued to do plenty of damage in Boston.

  • Career at Fenway: 54 games, 12 HRs, .325/.429/.615 slash line
  • 2025 season at Fenway: 33 games, 5 HRs, .292/.386/.525 slash line

The all-star third baseman has three homers in his past 10 games, posting a .667 SLG in that span.

Houston sends left-hander Colton Gordon to the mound today, and Gordon’s numbers versus right-hitting players are disastrous.

In 13 games, Gordon has allowed 12 homers and a .309/.336/.569 slash line vs. RHHs.

The only thing Gordon does really well is avoid walks. His 4.0% walk rate ranks in the 98th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

That just means Bregman should have every opportunity to tee off.

MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

Royals vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 2: Bobby Witt Jr. should fuel Kansas City’s offence

Blue Jays best bets

Max Scherzer is back on the mound Saturday afternoon for the Toronto Blue Jays, as they host the Kansas City Royals.

The pregame narrative: KC won last night’s game, 9-3, marking Toronto’s fifth loss in six games. The Jays are favourites at Rogers Centre this afternoon in a matchup with a lower-than-usual projected total.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Royals for Aug. 2, featuring prop bets on Scherzer and Bobby Witt Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Royals

Best bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (+107)

This price seems too good to be true for one of baseball’s brightest young stars.

Witt homered and walked twice vs. the Blue Jays last night, extending a stellar stretch of production that goes back to the beginning of July:

  • .302 BA
  • .890 OPS
  • 21 runs
  • 1+ runs in 16 of 24 games

Witt’s xBA since July 1 is .302, per Baseball Savant, and that directly aligns with his actual batting average. So he hasn’t been lucking his way into this.

His 100th-percentile sprint speed means he’s always a threat to steal a base. And his 89th-percentile xSLG (.525) means that he’s got plenty of power to go with all that speed.

Witt bats in the No. 2 spot of the Royals’ lineup, with three accomplished hitters right behind him: Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Salvador Perez. All three of those guys have a 119 wRC+ or better since June 1.

Max Scherzer will throw mostly four-seamers and sliders to right-hitting players, and that’s a combo that should be fine for Witt.

The star shortstop has a .302 xBA and a .574 xSLG against those pitches from righties.

Key stat: Witt has scored a run in eight of his past 10 games.

Embed: #116537

Quick pick

Scherzer under 17.5 outs (+135): I faded Scherzer’s outs total last time (15.5), and he blew it out of the water with a 7.0-inning quality start against a floundering Tigers lineup.

This line movement, combined with the price, makes me want to try taking the under again.

Scherzer has gone under this mark in five of his seven starts, averaging 5.0 IP this season. He’s had a thumb issue flare up a few times, and though he seems to be managing it fine, there’s always a risk that it resurfaces.

Also, remember that the Tigers were in a massive slump when Scherzer faced them last time out. That’s not the case with the Royals this weekend.

KC is ninth in the majors in team wRC+ over the past 30 days (110), which includes the third-highest SLG (.465).

Toronto’s bullpen is in solid shape thanks to Thursday’s off-day (and another off-day coming up on Aug. 7). There are four relievers with multiple rest days entering this matchup.

Over 8 runs (-113): Noah Cameron is having a remarkable rookie season for KC, compiling a 2.44 ERA over 14 starts.

He’ll face one of his toughest tests of the year on Saturday, though, in a road matchup against a very selective Blue Jays lineup.

Against southpaws, Toronto has the best on-base percentage in the league (.339). The Jays also have the lowest K rate (18.0%), the second-highest walk rate (10.0%) and the fourth-highest BA (.261).

I expect the Jays to really make Cameron work. This over is 7-2-1 in Toronto’s past 10 games.

In Scherzer’s starts this year, this over is 6-1. It’s just not a significant total for two offences that are clicking.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:26 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.

CFL Week 9 predictions, picks and best bets: Roughriders, Alouettes meet in potential Grey Cup preview

CFL Week 9 predictions

The top teams in the CFL’s East and West divisions meet on Saturday night to conclude the Week 9 slate.

This week’s CFL narrative: There are four CFL games on tap ahead of the Civic Holiday, headlined by the Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-1) visiting the Montreal Alouettes (5-2). The Hamilton Tiger-Cats, who are the other top squad in the East, are road favourites in Edmonton on Saturday afternoon.

Check out the latest CFL Week 9 predictions for the games beginning Thursday, July 31.

CFL Week 9 predictions

Best bet: Roughriders/Alouettes under 50.5 points (-110)

It’s still early, but this is shaping up as a potential Grey Cup preview with how Saskatchewan and Montreal are playing this season.

And it starts on the defensive side of the ball.

The Alouettes and Roughriders rank second and third, respectively, in scoring defence. Also, Montreal is No. 1 in total defence.

In the run game, these defences are as stout as it gets. Saskatchewan allows just 66.9 yards/game (first in the CFL), while Montreal allows 75.6 yards/game (second).

Led by A.J. Ouellette, the Riders love to establish their rushing attack. And Montreal might need to lean more heavily on that aspect without starting quarterback Davis Alexander.

I just don’t think either defence will allow for much breathing room.

Also, both teams have an impact wideout who is trending toward missing this week.

Neither Tyson Philpot (three TDs in five games for Montreal) nor Samuel Emilus (361 yards in four games for Saskatchewan) practiced on Tuesday or Wednesday.

These teams combined for just 36 total points when they matched up in Montreal last season.

Key stat: Montreal and Saskatchewan’s defences combine to allow 46.6 PPG.

Full CFL betting markets

More best bets

Tiger-Cats -3.5 (-110): The scheduling gods aren’t working in Hamilton’s favour, as this will be the Ti-Cats’ fourth road game in a five-week span.

But Hamilton has risen to every challenge after an 0-2 start. Who knew a Week 3 bye could do a team so much good.

Since then, the Ti-Cats are 5-0 with a 10.6-point average victory margin. They’ve covered this number in four of five.

Edmonton is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season. The Elks have failed to cover a +3.5 spread in four of six games.

Hamilton has the No. 1 scoring offence in the CFL, while Edmonton ranks eighth. The chasm between them is nearly 10.0 points per game.

Edmonton also has the ninth-ranked scoring defence. To me, the gap between these teams is more than 3.5 points.

Stampeders +3.5 (-110): Vernon Adams Jr. won’t play for Calgary on Thursday night, which helps explain why the Stamps are underdogs.

Still, I think there’s a lot to like about Calgary against an Ottawa Redblacks team that hasn’t proven anything.

Yes, Ottawa (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) did earn its lone win came in Calgary earlier this year. But that was in severe rain and wind that changed the complexion of the game (Ottawa won, 20-12, in a game that featured just one touchdown).

Calgary (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) has the CFL’s No. 1 scoring defence (19.1 PPG). Adams’ absence has nothing to do with that.

Look for the Stamps to at least keep things close with former NFLer P.J. Walker making his first CFL start. Surely, a full week of practice with the first team will do Walker some good.

CFL Week 9 predictions as of 2:10 p.m. on 07/31/2025.