Tonight’s top MLB home run pick comes from the Bay Area, where a struggling Zac Gallen must contend with an A’s team in a groove.
Today’s MLB HR narrative: There are a handful of viable HR picks in the A’s lineup tonight, but Tyler Soderstrom stood out to me from a value standpoint. Earlier on Saturday, Alex Bregman is a worthy pick to go deep against his former team.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 2.
MLB home run picks
Best bet: Soderstrom to hit a home run (+475)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a tailspin that prompted them to be sellers at the trade deadline. Looking at where this season has gone wrong for the Snakes, one of the key culprits is Gallen.
Two years removed from an all-star bid and an NL Cy Young podium finish, Gallen has been one of MLB’s worst pitchers.
He has a 5.60 ERA — two full runs north of his 3.60 career ERA — and has allowed an NL-high 23 home runs.
Gallen also ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in xERA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.
Tonight, Gallen will pitch inside Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park, which is among the most offence-friendly venues in the league. Yet another reason to back someone in the A’s lineup to go yard.
I’ve settled on Soderstrom, who has a platoon advantage and is swinging a hot bat lately.
Soderstrom is slugging .506 vs. RHPs this year, and 18 of his 19 HRs have come in righty-on-lefty matchups.
Ideally, the outfielder sits on a four-seam fastball and barrels it up. He’s batting .338 with a .632 SLG vs. four-seamers from RHPs this season. Gallen’s four-seamer averages 93.3 mph, which is 1.6 mph below average.
Key stat: In his past 21 games, Soderstrom has five HRs and a .584 SLG.
Best HR predictions
Bregman to hit a home run (+320): When Bregman signed with the Red Sox this offseason, much was made of his career exploits at Fenway Park.
Now as a member of the home team, he has continued to do plenty of damage in Boston.
- Career at Fenway: 54 games, 12 HRs, .325/.429/.615 slash line
- 2025 season at Fenway: 33 games, 5 HRs, .292/.386/.525 slash line
The all-star third baseman has three homers in his past 10 games, posting a .667 SLG in that span.
Houston sends left-hander Colton Gordon to the mound today, and Gordon’s numbers versus right-hitting players are disastrous.
In 13 games, Gordon has allowed 12 homers and a .309/.336/.569 slash line vs. RHHs.
The only thing Gordon does really well is avoid walks. His 4.0% walk rate ranks in the 98th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
That just means Bregman should have every opportunity to tee off.
MLB home run picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET on 08/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.