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Guardians vs. Yankees prop bets June 5: Back Jose Ramirez to clear his bases prop

It’s getaway day in MLB, and Thursday’s most compelling night matchup occurs in the Bronx when the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: New York’s Max Fried (1.92 ERA) pitches opposite Cleveland’s Slade Cecconi (5.28) in this rubber match. The Yankees are heavily favoured to win behind Fried and their stellar offence.

Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees prop bets, featuring Jose Ramirez and Cody Bellinger.

Guardians vs. Yankees prop bets

Best Bet: Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+128)

Fried is putting up Cy Young-calibre numbers, but I think Ramirez can tag him on Thursday.

Baseball Savant’s advanced metrics suggest Fried has been lucky this season. His xERA (3.64) is 1.72 points higher than his actual ERA (1.29), which is the 27th biggest gap among all pitchers.

Fried has allowed 14 hits across his last two starts (12.1 IP) and two home runs.

A prolonged regression should be coming for the southpaw, and it looks like that’s already begun to happen.

Ramirez has consistently been a top-10 hitter in baseball since 2017 and is putting together one of his best seasons to date, batting .327 with a .932 OPS through 58 games.

If that batting average holds, it would be the best mark of his career.

And not to mention, J-Ram has been destroying lefties this season (.423 batting average, 1.092 OPS).

Key Stat: Ramirez has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games.

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Best MLB picks

Bellinger under 0.5 runs (-139): This line seems like a steal to me. If Bellinger were hitting in front of Aaron Judge, as he was earlier this season, I’d have my reservations.

But he’s not, Rotowire projected to bat third tonight — and the first-year Yankee is cold right now.

Bellinger has zero runs in his last five starts. He has just two hits in that span with two walks, and is batting a miserable .167 over his last nine games.

Cecconi is far from a dangerous arm, but the left-hitting Bellinger has struggled against righties this season.

He owns a .227 BA and .313 OBP vs. RHP and .333 and .375 marks vs. LHP.

Guardians vs. Yankees prop bets made at 10:38 a.m. ET on 06/05/2025.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays prop picks June 5: Back Kyle Schwarber

The Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies’ rubber match will be settled during Thursday’s matinee at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight home underdog with an unpredictable Chris Bassitt (3.80 ERA) pitching opposite Jesus Luzardo (3.58 ERA). The Phillies’ starter gave up 12 runs in his last outing but has generally been reliable to eat innings and limit runs.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 5, featuring Kyle Schwarber.

Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies

Best Bet: Schwarber 1+ RBI (+145)

Schwarber is no longer the leadoff man for the Phillies, now hitting cleanup behind Bryson Stott, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.

That’s an A-plus spot for run production, and Schwarber will have a platoon advantage against a pitcher who puts a ton of runners on base.

Bassitt allowed 50 baserunners in 32.0 IP in May (1.59 WHIP), posting a 5.06 ERA.

Toronto’s righty has gotten crushed by left-handed batters this season (.321/.367/.500 vs. LHB compared to .231/.273/.354 vs. RHB).

Schwarber is running strong reverse splits against lefties this season, but his career SLG vs. RHP (.523) is 100 points higher than against LHP (.423).

With all that said, taking Schwarber to go over 1.5 bases is a good play, too. But I’m value hunting on this RBI market because of who’s in front of Schwarber in the lineup.

Turner is 4-for-9 against Bassitt, while Harper should also benefit from a platoon advantage.

Key stat: Bassitt has allowed 16 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 8:50 a.m. ET on 06/05/2025.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays prop picks June 5: Back Kyle Schwarber and Jesus Luzardo

The Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies’ rubber match will be settled during Thursday’s matinee at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight home underdog with an unpredictable Chris Bassitt (3.80 ERA) pitching opposite Jesus Luzardo (3.58 ERA). The Phillies’ starter gave up 12 runs in his last outing but has generally been reliable to eat innings and limit runs.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 5, featuring Kyle Schwarber and Luzardo.

Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies

Best Bet: Schwarber 1+ RBI (+143)

Schwarber is no longer the leadoff man for the Phillies, now hitting cleanup behind Bryson Stott, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.

That’s an A-plus spot for run production, and Schwarber will have a platoon advantage against a pitcher who puts a ton of runners on base.

BOOST: Jays to win, Bassitt 5+ Ks & Vladdy 1+ RBI. Bet here!

Bassitt allowed 50 baserunners in 32.0 IP in May (1.59 WHIP), posting a 5.06 ERA.

Toronto’s righty has gotten crushed by left-handed batters this season (.321/.367/.500 vs. LHB compared to .231/.273/.354 vs. RHB).

Schwarber is running strong reverse splits against lefties this season, but his career SLG vs. RHP (.523) is 100 points higher than against LHP (.423).

With all that said, taking Schwarber to go over 1.5 bases is a good play, too. But I’m value hunting on this RBI market because of who’s in front of Schwarber in the lineup.

Turner is 4-for-9 against Bassitt, while Harper should also benefit from a platoon advantage.

Key stat: Bassitt has allowed 16 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts.

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Quick pick

Parlay: Luzardo over 17.5 outs & Schwarber 1+ hit (+155): I want in on a Luzardo bounce-back after his disaster class against the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday.

The lefty gave up 12 hits and 12 earned runs in 3.1 IP, ballooning his ERA from 2.15 to 3.58. It was ugly, but I’m happy to throw that result in the garbage.

He had logged 6.0-plus innings in seven of 10 starts before then, shutting out the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.

Backing Luzardo to go over 17.5 outs justifiably carries a -162 price tag, so I’ll double-dip on Schwarber by backing him to record a hit in this parlay.

He has a hit in eight of his last 10 games and is 7-for-16 lifetime against Bassitt (.438 BA).

Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 8:50 a.m. ET on 06/05/2025.

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Why Taylor Pendrith is Canada’s best bet to win the Canadian Open

Twenty-one Canadians are teeing it up in their national open this week at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley.

The pre-tournament narrative: Each of those players is looking to replicate what Nick Taylor did in 2023 and win on home soil. Corey Conners holds the shortest odds of the group, while Taylor Pendrith is my best bet to win at the bomber-friendly course.

Check out my Canadian Open best bets for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament (beginning on June 5), featuring a prediction on Mackenzie Hughes.

Canadian Open best bets

Full RBC Canadian Open betting markets

Best bet: Pendrith to win (+1,800) & top Canadian (+333)

Pendrith only has one win on tour — at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last May — but this course sets up perfectly for him to nab a second.

TPC Toronto is playing at 7,445 yards, which is slightly above the tour average. There isn’t a ton of danger off-the-tee for players who can carry the ball north of 300 yards, either.

Pendrith averages 307.4 yards with the big stick (34th-best on tour) and gains 0.671 strokes off-the-tee per round (fourth).

The one challenging aspect of TPC Toronto should be its par 3s. Pendrith has birdied 15.87% of his par 3s this year (21st).

Most of the players in this field haven’t seen TPC Toronto before. But the Richmond Hill, Ont. native has been to the venue plenty, and that familiarity should play in his favour.

Pendrith is also in great form. He just finished T12 at the Memorial Tournament the week after logging a career-best major finish (T5) at the PGA Championship.

Backing Pendrith to be the top Canadian is a great way to reduce the risk if you don’t want to worry about the likes of Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg spoiling the party.

Key stat: Pendrith ranks 6th in greens in regulation this season (69.87%).

Canadian Open best bets made at 1:50 p.m. on 06/04/2025.

Why Taylor Pendrith is Canada’s best bet to win the Canadian Open

Twenty-one Canadians are teeing it up in their national open this week at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley.

The pre-tournament narrative: Each of those players is looking to replicate what Nick Taylor did in 2023 and win on home soil. Corey Conners holds the shortest odds of the group, while Taylor Pendrith is my best bet to win at the bomber-friendly course.

Check out my Canadian Open best bets for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament (beginning on June 5), featuring a prediction on Mackenzie Hughes.

Canadian Open best bets

Best bet: Pendrith to win (+2,200) & top Canadian (+300)

Pendrith only has one win on tour — at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last May — but this course sets up perfectly for him to nab a second.

TPC Toronto is playing at 7,445 yards, which is slightly above the tour average. There isn’t a ton of danger off-the-tee for players who can carry the ball north of 300 yards, either.

Pendrith averages 307.4 yards with the big stick (34th-best on tour) and gains 0.671 strokes off-the-tee per round (fourth).

The one challenging aspect of TPC Toronto should be its par 3s. Pendrith has birdied 15.87% of his par 3s this year (21st).

Most of the players in this field haven’t seen TPC Toronto before. But the Richmond Hill, Ont. native has been to the venue plenty, and that familiarity should play in his favour.

Pendrith is also in great form. He just finished T12 at the Memorial Tournament the week after logging a career-best major finish (T5) at the PGA Championship.

Backing Pendrith to be the top Canadian is a great way to reduce the risk if you don’t want to worry about the likes of Rory McIlroy and Ludvig Aberg spoiling the party.

Key stat: Pendrith ranks 6th in greens in regulation this season (69.87%).

Full RBC Canadian Open betting markets

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PGA Tour quick pick

Harry Hall to beat Mackenzie Hughes 72-hole matchup (-120): I’m looking for a way to fade Hughes that doesn’t involve betting him to miss the cut, and this fits the bill.

Hailing from Hamilton, Ont., Hughes also has venue familiarity on his side — but Hall simply outclasses him as a golfer.

Hall is 15th in strokes gained: total (+1.005) this season and is 33rd on DataGolf’s ranking.
Hughes is 98th in strokes gained: total (+0.037) and is 60th on DataGolf’s ranking.

That means over a four-round average, Hall would typically beat Hughes by about four shots.

The Englishman is coming off his best finish of the season, a T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and has three straight top 20s.

Hughes, meanwhile, has missed two of his last three cuts with a T39 in the outlier.

Bet on the Canadian Open now

Canadian Open best bets made at 1:50 p.m. on 06/04/2025.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays prop picks June 4: Bet on Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Philadelphia Phillies aim for a series win tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Bryce Harper homered in his return to action yesterday as Philadelphia routed Toronto, 8-3. This matchup is a pick’em with Jose Berrios pitching for the Jays opposite Mick Abel, who was lights out in his MLB debut in May.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 4, featuring Harper and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies

Best Bet: Harper to score (-114)

Everything is gravy for Philadelphia when Harper is playing.

The Phillies are 11-1 in the last 12 games with the two-time MVP in the lineup. Harper crossed the plate in five of those contests, scoring seven total runs.

I believe he’ll be able to capitalize against Berrios tonight.

Toronto’s righty has a 3.86 ERA this season, but every outing has gas-can potential.

Berrios allowed 43 baserunners in 36.0 IP in May. He managed to put out those fires with 37 strikeouts, but Philadelphia has the eighth-lowest K rate in baseball.

According to Baseball Savant, the righty ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in xERA (4.62), walk rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.

Harper has had success against Berrios in a small sample. He’s reached base safely in 4-of-6 plate appearances with two walks and a home run.

Key stat: Philadelphia’s lineup is batting .276 against Berrios in 63 combined plate appearances.

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Quick pick

Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (-112): Abel’s MLB debut went about as well as it could last month. He worked six shutout innings and struck out nine batters in a 1-0 victory.

But that was against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank bottom five in wRC+, batting average, and slugging percentage.

I expect the rookie to have a much tougher time against a Blue Jays lineup hitting its stride, and Guerrero is my pick to do the damage.

Vladdy ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Abel’s bread and butter is an upper-90s fastball and a trio of breaking pitches. Guerrero has .559 xSLG on fastballs above 95 mph and a .526 xSLG against breaking pitches.

Guerrero has hits in nine of his last 10 games, clearing this line five times.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 12:11 p.m. ET on 06/04/2025.

Panthers vs. Oilers Stanley Cup Final Game 1 SGP predictions: Bet on Edmonton to win, Bennett at +440

The Stanley Cup Final begins on Wednesday, when the Edmonton Oilers host the Florida Panthers in a rematch of last year’s finale.

The pregame narrative: Tonight marks the beginning of a series which will define legacies. Florida, in its third consecutive Cup final, will enter dynasty talks with a win. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, meanwhile, are already all-time greats with just one thing missing from their resumes.

Check out my Panthers vs. Oilers SGP predictions, featuring Sam Bennett.

Panthers vs. Oilers predictions

Parlay: Oilers moneyline | Over 5.5 goals | Bennett 1+ points (+440)

Oilers moneyline (-130): Edmonton being down 0-2 in the opening round feels like a lifetime ago.

The Oilers, led by the spectacular play of McDavid and Draisaitl, are 12-2 since and have been truly dominant at home.

Kris Knoblauch’s group is 6-1 at Rogers Place this postseason, covering a -1.5 puck line in five of those contests.

The Oilers have scored 3+ goals in every home game, averaging 4.7 goals in those contests.

They have generated 13.69 high-danger chances per 60 at home, according to Natural Stat Trick. The most of any playoff team to make it past the first round.

Florida won in Game 3 in Edmonton last year, but the Oilers responded emphatically with a pair of blowout wins in Games 4 and 6.

Special teams will play a large factor in this game and series. Panthers have taken 3.41 penalties per game this postseason, but own the best penalty kill.

However, no one has had a better PP than the Oilers, who found the net on the man advantage in every game against the Dallas Stars.

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NHL SGP legs

Over 5.5 goals (-143): I think Edmonton will do most of the heavy lifting clearing this total, but expect Florida to pot a few against Stuart Skinner as well.

The netminder has had an up-and-down postseason, most recently stonewalling the Stars over the five-game gentleman’s sweep.

But he ranked outside the top 30 in save percentage and GAA during the regular season and is a pedestrian 17th in goals saved above expected per 60 this playoff, according to MoneyPuck.

The over is 11-5 against this number in Edmonton’s playoff games, and 12-5 in Florida’s games.

Bennett 1+ points (-129): I’m not exactly sold on Skinner’s play, and think Bennett can make his way onto the score sheet in this contest.

The winger has been a man on a mission this postseason, logging a team-high 10 goals and ranking second in points with 16 in 17 games.

He scored four goals and has seven points in the Eastern Conference Final, leading the team in xG (2.56), shots (16), and scoring chances (19).

Bennett has cashed this wager in seven of his last 10 games and skates alongside Matthew Tkachuk, who caught fire against the Hurricanes (two goals, seven points).

Panthers vs. Oilers predictions made at 11:02 a.m. ET 06/04/2025.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays prop picks June 4: Bet on Bryce Harper, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Philadelphia Phillies aim for a series win tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Bryce Harper homered in his return to action yesterday as Philadelphia routed Toronto, 8-3. This matchup is a pick’em with Jose Berrios pitching for the Jays opposite Mick Abel, who was lights out in his MLB debut in May.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 4, featuring Harper and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies

Best Bet: Harper to score (-110)

Everything is gravy for Philadelphia when Harper is playing.

The Phillies are 11-1 in the last 12 games with the two-time MVP in the lineup. Harper crossed the plate in five of those contests, scoring seven total runs.

I believe he’ll be able to capitalize against Berrios tonight.

Toronto’s righty has a 3.86 ERA this season, but every outing has gas-can potential.

Berrios allowed 43 baserunners in 36.0 IP in May. He managed to put out those fires with 37 strikeouts, but Philadelphia has the eighth-lowest K rate in baseball.

According to Baseball Savant, the righty ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in xERA (4.62), walk rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.

Harper has had success against Berrios in a small sample. He’s reached base safely in 4-of-6 plate appearances with two walks and a home run.

Key stat: Philadelphia’s lineup is batting .276 against Berrios in 63 combined plate appearances.

Quick pick

Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+100): Abel’s MLB debut went about as well as it could last month. He worked six shutout innings and struck out nine batters in a 1-0 victory.

But that was against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank bottom five in wRC+, batting average, and slugging percentage.

I expect the rookie to have a much tougher time against a Blue Jays lineup hitting its stride, and Guerrero is my pick to do the damage.

Vladdy ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Abel’s bread and butter is an upper-90s fastball and a trio of breaking pitches. Guerrero has .559 xSLG on fastballs above 95 mph and a .526 xSLG against breaking pitches.

Guerrero has hits in nine of his last 10 games, clearing this line five times.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:04 a.m. ET on 06/04/2025.

RBC Canadian Open predictions and long shot picks: Bet on strong showings from Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young

Ludvig Aberg headlines my Canadian Open predictions for this week’s tournament at TPC Toronto.

The latest: Aberg is second on the odds board to Rory McIlroy this week, and holds solid value to finish inside the top-10 at plus money. I’ve also got a pair of long-shot picks dialled up on Kurt Kitayama and Cameron Young.

Check out my Canadian Open predictions for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament beginning on June 5.

Canadian Open predictions

Best bet: Aberg top-10 finish (+150)

Aberg has the tools to be a top-10 machine on tour.

But this season has been wishy-washy for the towering Swede, as he’s struggled to find form following a win at the Genesis Invitational in February.

Since then, he’s logged just one top-10 finish — at T7 at the Masters — in eight starts.

Full RBC Canadian Open betting markets

Still, I’m loving his chances at tearing up a TPC Toronto course suited for bombers. Playing at 7,445 yards, it offers little danger for those who can consistently carry the ball over 300 yards. Aberg is comfortably above that mark.

Last year, the then-rookie had nine top-10 finishes on tour and five more between T12 and T19. In a weak field, I expect his talent to shine through.

Key stat: Aberg gained strokes in all four major categories (putting, around-the-greens, approach, off-the-tee) during his T16 finish at the Memorial Tournament last week.

Canadian Open long shot picks

Kitayama to win (+5,000): You might remember Kurt Kitayama winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023. Since then, he has just four top-five finishes in 53 starts.

But let’s look at the positives: One of those top fives came last month at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. And Kitayama logged a T22 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in his last start.

The American is an undoubtedly streaky player, but he can absolutely bomb it off the tee and has gained strokes on approach in three straight starts. I can see him making a dark-horse run this week.

Young to win (+5,000): Young triumphed during the “longest day in golf” on Monday, winning a five-man playoff in U.S. Open qualifiers to secure his spot in the major championship next week.

Confidence is everything in this sport, and I’m hoping that result can vault Young back into contention on a weekly basis — which is where he used to be.

The 28-year-old has logged a T25 at the Memorial Tournament and a T7 at the Truist Championship in his last three starts.

Canadian Open predictions made at 1:10 p.m. on 06/03/2025.

RBC Canadian Open predictions and long shot picks: Bet on strong showings from Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young

Ludvig Aberg headlines my Canadian Open predictions for this week’s tournament at TPC Toronto.

The latest: Aberg is second on the odds board to Rory McIlroy this week, and holds solid value to finish inside the top-10 at plus money. I’ve also got a pair of long-shot picks dialled up on Kurt Kitayama and Cameron Young.

Check out my Canadian Open predictions for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament beginning on June 5.

Canadian Open predictions

Best bet: Aberg top-10 finish (+175)

Aberg has the tools to be a top-10 machine on tour.

But this season has been wishy-washy for the towering Swede, as he’s struggled to find form following a win at the Genesis Invitational in February.

Since then, he’s logged just one top-10 finish — at T7 at the Masters — in eight starts.

Full RBC Canadian Open betting markets

Still, I’m loving his chances at tearing up a TPC Toronto course suited for bombers. Playing at 7,445 yards, it offers little danger for those who can consistently carry the ball over 300 yards. Aberg is comfortably above that mark.

Last year, the then-rookie had nine top-10 finishes on tour and five more between T12 and T19. In a weak field, I expect his talent to shine through.

Key stat: Aberg gained strokes in all four major categories (putting, around-the-greens, approach, off-the-tee) during his T16 finish at the Memorial Tournament last week.

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Canadian Open long shot picks

Kitayama top-20 finish (+250) & to win (+6,600): You might remember Kurt Kitayama winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023. Since then, he has just four top-five finishes in 53 starts.

But let’s look at the positives: One of those top fives came last month at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. And Kitayama logged a T22 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in his last start.

The American is an undoubtedly streaky player, but he can absolutely bomb it off the tee and has gained strokes on approach in three straight starts. I can see him making a dark-horse run this week.

Young top-20 finish (+275) & to win (+7,000): Young triumphed during the “longest day in golf” on Monday, winning a five-man playoff in U.S. Open qualifiers to secure his spot in the major championship next week.

Confidence is everything in this sport, and I’m hoping that result can vault Young back into contention on a weekly basis — which is where he used to be.

The 28-year-old has logged a T25 at the Memorial Tournament and a T7 at the Truist Championship in his last three starts.

Canadian Open predictions made at 1:10 p.m. on 06/03/2025.