The Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies’ rubber match will be settled during Thursday’s matinee at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight home underdog with an unpredictable Chris Bassitt (3.80 ERA) pitching opposite Jesus Luzardo (3.58 ERA). The Phillies’ starter gave up 12 runs in his last outing but has generally been reliable to eat innings and limit runs.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 5, featuring Kyle Schwarber and Luzardo.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Schwarber 1+ RBI (+143)
Schwarber is no longer the leadoff man for the Phillies, now hitting cleanup behind Bryson Stott, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.
That’s an A-plus spot for run production, and Schwarber will have a platoon advantage against a pitcher who puts a ton of runners on base.
BOOST: Jays to win, Bassitt 5+ Ks & Vladdy 1+ RBI. Bet here!
- Bassitt allowed 50 baserunners in 32.0 IP in May (1.59 WHIP), posting a 5.06 ERA.
- Toronto’s righty has gotten crushed by left-handed batters this season (.321/.367/.500 vs. LHB compared to .231/.273/.354 vs. RHB).
- Schwarber is running strong reverse splits against lefties this season, but his career SLG vs. RHP (.523) is 100 points higher than against LHP (.423).
With all that said, taking Schwarber to go over 1.5 bases is a good play, too. But I’m value hunting on this RBI market because of who’s in front of Schwarber in the lineup.
Turner is 4-for-9 against Bassitt, while Harper should also benefit from a platoon advantage.
Key stat: Bassitt has allowed 16 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts.
Quick pick
Parlay: Luzardo over 17.5 outs & Schwarber 1+ hit (+155): I want in on a Luzardo bounce-back after his disaster class against the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday.
The lefty gave up 12 hits and 12 earned runs in 3.1 IP, ballooning his ERA from 2.15 to 3.58. It was ugly, but I’m happy to throw that result in the garbage.
He had logged 6.0-plus innings in seven of 10 starts before then, shutting out the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.
Backing Luzardo to go over 17.5 outs justifiably carries a -162 price tag, so I’ll double-dip on Schwarber by backing him to record a hit in this parlay.
He has a hit in eight of his last 10 games and is 7-for-16 lifetime against Bassitt (.438 BA).
Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 8:50 a.m. ET on 06/05/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.