The Philadelphia Phillies aim for a series win tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: Bryce Harper homered in his return to action yesterday as Philadelphia routed Toronto, 8-3. This matchup is a pick’em with Jose Berrios pitching for the Jays opposite Mick Abel, who was lights out in his MLB debut in May.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Phillies prop picks on June 4, featuring Harper and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
Best Bet: Harper to score (-114)
Everything is gravy for Philadelphia when Harper is playing.
The Phillies are 11-1 in the last 12 games with the two-time MVP in the lineup. Harper crossed the plate in five of those contests, scoring seven total runs.
I believe he’ll be able to capitalize against Berrios tonight.
Toronto’s righty has a 3.86 ERA this season, but every outing has gas-can potential.
- Berrios allowed 43 baserunners in 36.0 IP in May. He managed to put out those fires with 37 strikeouts, but Philadelphia has the eighth-lowest K rate in baseball.
- According to Baseball Savant, the righty ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in xERA (4.62), walk rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
Harper has had success against Berrios in a small sample. He’s reached base safely in 4-of-6 plate appearances with two walks and a home run.
Key stat: Philadelphia’s lineup is batting .276 against Berrios in 63 combined plate appearances.
Quick pick
Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (-112): Abel’s MLB debut went about as well as it could last month. He worked six shutout innings and struck out nine batters in a 1-0 victory.
But that was against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank bottom five in wRC+, batting average, and slugging percentage.
I expect the rookie to have a much tougher time against a Blue Jays lineup hitting its stride, and Guerrero is my pick to do the damage.
- Vladdy ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
- Abel’s bread and butter is an upper-90s fastball and a trio of breaking pitches. Guerrero has .559 xSLG on fastballs above 95 mph and a .526 xSLG against breaking pitches.
- Guerrero has hits in nine of his last 10 games, clearing this line five times.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays picks made at 12:11 p.m. ET on 06/04/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.