Staff Writer

Best MLB prop bets June 22: Bet on Bobby Witt Jr. and Manny Machado to do damage

Bobby Witt Jr. and Manny Machado headline Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres play out a rubber match at Petco Park, with each team starting a very hittable pitcher. Witt and Machado have been rolling and should capitalize on their respective matchups.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 22, which also includes a prediction on Tyler Freeman.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (-120)

Witt is a good bet to score on most nights, so I’m naturally going to jump on this prop when he’s facing a mid-tier (at best) arm.

Randy Vasquez is on the bump for the Padres today, and his 3.70 ERA might seem decent on the surface. But these advanced numbers, courtesy of Baseball Savant, paint an uglier picture:

First percentile K rate (13.7%)
Fourth percentile xERA (5.92)
18th percentile xBA (.274)
15th percentile walk rate (11.1%)

The righty doesn’t miss bats, walks a ton of batters, and ranks in the lower half of the league in hard-hit rate.

Witt, meanwhile, has been on a heater, posting a .375/.423/.792 slash line in his last six games. In that span, he’s gone 5-1 against this prop.

Key stat: Witt has scored 12 runs in 18 games this month.

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Best MLB picks

Machado over 1.5 total bases (-121): Pitching opposite Vasquez is Seth Lugo, who is also having a somewhat fraudulent season.

The Royals veteran’s 4.94 xERA is nearly 200 points higher than his 3.05 ERA. That 1.89 delta is the ninth-highest in MLB.

Lugo also has a 35th percentile K rate (20.0%) and 15th percentile hard-hit rate (46.3%).

Machado is running into one this month, batting .313 with a .575 SLG. If he makes contact against Lugo’s unimpressive arsenal — which I expect — the results should be solid.

Freeman over 1.5 bases (-109): Freeman has been a bright spot on a historically bad Colorado Rockies team this year. Check out what the 26-year-old outfielder is doing in June:

.411/.507/.571 slash line
1+ hit in 17 of 19 games
2+ bases in eight of 19 games

Freeman isn’t much of a power bat with just one home run on the season. But I like his chances of getting after Brandon Pfaadt at hitter-friendly Coors Field today.

Pfaadt has been a mess with the Arizona Diamondbacks lately, with a 10.13 ERA across his last five starts. The righty ranks in the first percentile for xERA (7.23) and xBA (.328) in MLB, so I doubt any positive regression is coming.

Also, six of Freeman’s eight extra-base hits have come vs. RHP this season.

MLB prop picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET on 06/22/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals best bets Game 7: Bet on OKC to cover and win the title on Sunday

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder wrap up the NBA season on Sunday with Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: Basketball fans haven’t been treated to a winner-take-all Finals game since 2016, when the Cleveland Cavaliers downed the Golden State Warriors. Indiana has been a sizeable underdog all series and is in that position again at Paycom Center, where OKC is 10-2 this postseason.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 7, featuring Tyrese Haliburton.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets

Best bet: Thunder -7.5 (-110)

I expected the Thunder to finish the job in Indiana, and they got routed.

But back at home, on a few days’ rest, I think OKC can pick up a decisive win. After all, that’s exactly what happened in the Western Conference semifinal against a battle-tested Denver Nuggets group.

Game 6 in Denver: 119-107 loss
Game 7 in OKC: 125-93 win

The Thunder have been lighting teams up at Paycom Center all season and into the playoffs, going an NBA-best 36-15-2 ATS. Here are a few more ways to illustrate their dominance at home:

OKC has a +20.7 net rating at home in the playoffs. That’s the seventh-best of all time (minimum eight games).

Nine of the Thunder’s 10 home playoff wins have been by 10+ points, including each of their last two home wins against the Pacers. They have a +25.0 average margin of victory at Paycom Center.

Sure, Indiana won Game 1 on the road in heroic fashion. But that required a rare fourth-quarter meltdown by the Thunder and an all-time shot by Haliburton.

I’ll roll with the team which has been historically good at home this year.

Key stat: OKC’s +12.8 net rating this year was the second-best ever, behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

NBA Finals Game 7 picks

Haliburton over 6.5 assists (-143): Haliburton battled through a calf strain in Game 6, putting up 14 points and five assists in just 23 minutes of play.

It was the best-case scenario for the Pacers, as the star point guard got to rest through the closing stretch as Indiana cruised to a victory.

With that said, I love these odds for a top-five passer in the league.

Haliburton averaged 9.3 assists per game this season (third-most in the NBA). In the playoffs, he’s 14-8 against this line.

He’s only cashed this bet twice in the Finals so far, mind you. But he was on pace to reach the milestone in Game 6 and had at least six assists in all five games before that.

Haliburton has an exceptionally high floor as a passer and should be well-rested heading into this winner-take-all game.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 10:58 p.m. ET 06/20/2025.

Canada vs. Curacao Gold Cup SGP predictions June 21: Back Jonathan David and Canada at +340

Canada looks to build off its strong start at the Gold Cup when it takes on Curacao on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: The Canadians throttled Honduras, 6-0, in their opening match at the tournament and are sizable favourites at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston. Jesse Marsch’s squad is now on a four-game unbeaten run in regulation.

Check out my Canada vs. Curacao SGP predictions for June 21, featuring Jonathan David.

Canada vs. Curacao predictions

Parlay: Canada halftime/full time | Jonathan David to score | Under 5.5 goals (+340)

Canada halftime/full time (-134): My colleague Spencer Closs backed Canada on this market as his best bet for Saturday’s game, and the line has already moved in his favour (was sitting at -125 at 1:25 p.m. on June 19).

I’m also keen to get aboard the Canada halftime/full time train, because Marsch’s squad is on an offensive rampage right now.

Promise David has slotted in alongside Jonathan David and a red-hot Tajon Buchanan to form a deadly attacking trio.

Canada beat Ukraine, 4-2, in addition to putting up six against Honduras. That marked its first win against a European opponent since 2011.

Both Ukraine (No. 21) and Honduras (No. 41) are ranked well above No. 91 Curacao. When Les Rouges last played Curacao, they took a 2-0 lead into halftime and won.

The Canadians have also logged back-to-back clean sheets in regulation, so I can see a 1-0 halftime lead being enough.

Go to full Canada vs. Curacao betting markets

Other SGP legs

David to score (-103): Promise is getting a lot of shine after scoring in his first two caps with the team, and deservedly so, but I’ll still roll with Jonathan to net one on Saturday.

After all, he is the nation’s all-time leading scorer.

With 34 goals in 64 games, David has been a consistently reliable scorer for Les Rouges. He’s also blossomed into an elite talent overseas, netting 25-plus goals in three consecutive seasons with Lille across all competitions.

David was held off the score sheet against Honduras but scored in four of six games for Canada before that, including a brace against Ukraine.

Under 5.5 goals (-560): Canada cleared this line on its own on Tuesday, but that was on home soil — which plays a huge factor in international fixtures.

On a neutral site, I expect Canada to win, but not by that margin.

Curacao is a low-ranked side, but it still played El Salvador to a 0-0 draw in its Gold Cup opener. It has gone under this mark in 13 of its last 14 games, with the exception being a 5-1 win over Haiti in World Cup qualifiers.

Canada vs. Curacao predictions made at 12:20 p.m. on 06/20/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals best bets Game 7: Bet on OKC to cover and win the title on Sunday

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder wrap up the NBA season on Sunday with Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: Basketball fans haven’t been treated to a winner-take-all Finals game since 2016, when the Cleveland Cavaliers downed the Golden State Warriors. Indiana has been a sizeable underdog all series and is in that position again at Paycom Center, where OKC is 10-2 this postseason.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder best bets for Game 7, featuring Tyrese Haliburton.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets

Best bet: Thunder -8 (-112)

I expected the Thunder to finish the job in Indiana, and they got routed.

But back at home, on a few days’ rest, I think OKC can pick up a decisive win. After all, that’s exactly what happened in the Western Conference semifinal against a battle-tested Denver Nuggets group.

Game 6 in Denver: 119-107 loss
Game 7 in OKC: 125-93 win

The Thunder have been lighting teams up at Paycom Center all season and into the playoffs, going an NBA-best 36-15-2 ATS. Here are a few more ways to illustrate their dominance at home:

OKC has a +20.7 net rating at home in the playoffs. That’s the seventh-best of all time (minimum eight games).

Nine of the Thunder’s 10 home playoff wins have been by 10+ points, including each of their last two home wins against the Pacers. They have a +25.0 average margin of victory at Paycom Center.

Sure, Indiana won Game 1 on the road in heroic fashion. But that required a rare fourth-quarter meltdown by the Thunder and an all-time shot by Haliburton.

I’ll roll with the team which has been historically good at home this year.

Key stat: OKC’s +12.8 net rating this year was the second-best ever, behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

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NBA Finals Game 7 picks

Haliburton 8+ assists (+115): Haliburton battled through a calf strain in Game 6, putting up 14 points and five assists in just 23 minutes of play.

It was the best-case scenario for the Pacers, as the star point guard got to rest through the closing stretch as Indiana cruised to a victory.

With that said, I love these odds for a top-five passer in the league.

Haliburton averaged 9.3 assists per game this season (third-most in the NBA). In the playoffs, he’s 12-10 against this line.

He’s only cashed this bet once in the Finals so far, mind you. But he was on pace to reach the milestone in Game 6 and had at least six assists in all five games before that.

Haliburton has an exceptionally high floor as a passer and should be well-rested heading into this winner-take-all game.

Pacers vs. Thunder best bets made at 10:58 p.m. ET 06/20/2025.

Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 6 SGP: Bet on OKC to win, Siakam to score at +285

The Oklahoma City Thunder can put away the Indiana Pacers and win the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: All eyes are on the availability of Indiana’s star point guard, Tyrese Haliburton, who is battling a calf strain and listed as a game-time decision. OKC is a 6.5-point favourite to win on the road, where it is a mediocre 5-4 this postseason.

Check out my Thunder vs. Pacers SGP predictions for Game 6 on June 19, featuring Pascal Siakam and Isaiah Hartenstein.

Thunder vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Thunder -2.5 | Siakam 20+ points | Hartenstein 6+ rebounds (+285)

Thunder -2.5 (-315): No one predicted Indiana would be in the NBA Finals, as it held 100-to-1 odds to win the title just after the trade deadline.

It’s been a great run for the Pacers, but I think it comes to an end tonight.

The Thunder looked human to start this series but have found their groove, winning three of the last four against the Pacers while holding them to a measly 109.0 points per game.

I can’t picture Indiana keeping up with OKC if Haliburton is effectively playing on one leg — assuming he even suits up at all. The point guard went 0-for-6 from the field in Game 5 and has been instrumental in authoring several comebacks this postseason.

OKC is 37-12 straight up on the road this year (second-best win percentage in the NBA behind the Boston Celtics).

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NBA SGP legs

Siakam 20+ points (-162): If the Pacers can somehow mount a comeback this series, it will be through Siakam.

The power forward is averaging a team-high 20.6 points and 7.4 rebounds and is coming off his best outing of the series.

28 points (9-of-15 shooting)
6 rebounds
5 assists

He’s been great at initiating contact in this series and converting on those chances, making 6.0 free throws on 7.4 attempts per night.

Siakam has reached this milestone in four straight home playoff games, averaging 25.5 PPG in those contests.

Hartenstein 6+ rebounds (-215): Hartenstein has been relegated to a secondary role on a Thunder team loaded with depth, but that’s fine.

The 7-foot, 250-pound centre is the most physically imposing player when he’s on the court. He’s still hitting this teased-down milestone with regularity.

6+ rebounds in 4 of 5 Finals games
6+ rebounds in 17 of 23 playoff games

Indiana ranks 12th out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate. I expect Hartenstein to do damage in his limited minutes.

Thunder vs. Pacers predictions made at 10:54 a.m. ET 06/19/2025.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays prop picks June 19: Fade Ryne Nelson against Toronto’s hot bats

The Toronto Blue Jays aim to sweep the Arizona Diamondbacks during Thursday’s matinee at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight home series and is favoured to break out the brooms this afternoon behind Kevin Gausman (4.08 ERA). Arizona, losers of five straight road games, counters with Ryne Nelson (4.14 ERA).

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks for June 19, featuring Nelson.

Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks

Best Bet: Nelson under 3.5 Ks (-108)

This is a low line for a pitcher, but Nelson is far from a workhorse.

The righty has largely been used as a bulk reliever this season, despite starting in five of his 15 appearances. In those outings, he’s gone under this total four times, while landing on four Ks in the outlier.

Nelson has also never thrown north of 84 pitches this season, and has a 33rd-percentile K rate (19.8%), per Baseball Savant.

That would make him a compelling fade candidate against most teams. So against Toronto, I view this as a smash play.

The Jays have the lowest K rate (18.0%) and the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) in MLB.

Toronto ranks third in batting average (.267), slugging percentage (.436), and wRC+ (119) over the past 30 days.

Arizona starters Brandon Pfaadt (5.0 IP, three Ks) and Eduardo Rodriguez (4.2 IP, four Ks) have struggled to rack up strikeouts through the first two games of this series.

Key stat: Nelson is 1-5 against a 3.5 K line when throwing 4.0+ innings.

Blue Jays picks made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 06/19/2025.

Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays prop picks June 19: Fade Ryne Nelson, back Addison Barger on Thursday

The Toronto Blue Jays aim to sweep the Arizona Diamondbacks during Thursday’s matinee at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight home series and is favoured to break out the brooms this afternoon behind Kevin Gausman (4.08 ERA). Arizona, losers of five straight road games, counters with Ryne Nelson (4.14 ERA).

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks for June 19, featuring Nelson and Addison Barger.

Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks

Best Bet: Nelson under 3.5 Ks (-110)

This is a low line for a pitcher, but Nelson is far from a workhorse.

The righty has largely been used as a bulk reliever this season, despite starting in five of his 15 appearances. In those outings, he’s gone under this total four times, while landing on four Ks in the outlier.

Nelson has also never thrown north of 84 pitches this season, and has a 33rd-percentile K rate (19.8%), per Baseball Savant.

That would make him a compelling fade candidate against most teams. So against Toronto, I view this as a smash play.

The Jays have the lowest K rate (18.0%) and the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) in MLB.

Toronto ranks third in batting average (.267), slugging percentage (.436), and wRC+ (119) over the past 30 days.

Arizona starters Brandon Pfaadt (5.0 IP, three Ks) and Eduardo Rodriguez (4.2 IP, four Ks) have struggled to rack up strikeouts through the first two games of this series.

Key stat: Nelson is 1-5 against a 3.5 K line when throwing 4.0+ innings.

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Quick pick

Barger over 1.5 bases (+114): Barger broke out in a big way against the Texas Rangers last month and has shown no signs of slowing down. Just check out what he’s done over the last 20 games.

.324/.377/.676 slash line
Seven doubles, six HRs
2+ bases 12 times

The 25-year-old is 5-for-9 this series with three doubles and a walk-off home run.

BACK-TO-BACK HOMERS
BLUE JAYS WIN #WALKOFF pic.twitter.com/dGfRZhvtlO
— MLB (@MLB) June 18, 2025

It looks like Toronto has finally found a lefty power bat.

Nelson has excellent splits against left-hitting batters this year, holding them to a .181 batting average. But Bargers’ slugging percentage versus righties (.543) is noticeably higher than his mark against lefties (.397).

I’ll ride with the red-hot hitter in this matchup.

Blue Jays picks made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 06/19/2025.

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Travelers Championship picks, predictions and odds: Back Aberg, Straka and Taylor in Connecticut

Golf fans itching for some action after the U.S. Open won’t have to wait long with the Travelers Championship on deck this week.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler headlines a stacked field and is favoured to defend his title in the final signature event of the 2025 PGA Tour season. J.J. Spaun is a 50-to-1 long shot after winning the U.S. Open last week, while Taylor Pendrith holds the shortest odds of any Canadian.

Check out my Travelers Championship picks for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament beginning on June 19.

Travelers Championship picks

Best bet: Aberg to win (+2,200) & top-20 finish (-120)

I took Aberg to win the U.S. Open last week but his chances were derailed on Friday as the Swede reportedly dealt with migraines en route to shooting 76 and missing the cut.

Is there some risk that will recur this week? Sure, but I’m not losing sleep over it.

TPC River Highlands is a course that demands strong iron play and accuracy off-the-tee. Aberg has had an up-and-down season, but at his best he can drive the ball a mile and accurately. His monstrous distance should allow him to club down and hit even more fairways this week.

Aberg has already won a signature event this year, at the Genesis Invitational in February, and had back-to-back top 20s before the U.S. Open.

Key stat: Aberg ranks ninth in this field in average strokes gained at TPC River Highlands (+1.42) with a minimum of two starts, per DataGolf.

Go to full Travelers Championship betting markets.

Golf picks

Straka to win (+3,000) & top-20 finish (+100): This course seems made for Straka, who, like Aberg, should be well rested after missing the cut at the U.S. Open.

The Austrian is a two-time winner this season and has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his 14 non-major starts.

He ranks third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach (+0.986), ninth in driving accuracy (68.37%), and eighth in birdie-or-better conversion rate (35.62%).

Straka finished T10 here in 2021 and T23 last year — and he’s a much better golfer now than then.

Taylor to win (+8,000) & top-20 finish (+210): Finally, I’ll take a long-shot swing on Taylor.

The Canadian finished T23 at the U.S. Open last week, T13 at the RBC Canadian Open the week before that, and fourth at the Memorial Tournament the week before that.

So, you could say he’s on a heater.

Taylor hits fairways at a well-above-average rate (19th in driving accuracy)and is an elite ball-striker (12th in SG: APP). He’s also a proven winner, so these odds are calling my name.

Travelers Championship picks made at 2:06 p.m. on 06/17/2025.

Travelers Championship picks, predictions and odds: Back Aberg, Straka and Taylor in Connecticut

Golf fans itching for some action after the U.S. Open won’t have to wait long with the Travelers Championship on deck this week.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler headlines a stacked field and is favoured to defend his title in the final signature event of the 2025 PGA Tour season. J.J. Spaun is a 50-to-1 long shot after winning the U.S. Open last week, while Taylor Pendrith holds the shortest odds of any Canadian.

Check out my Travelers Championship picks for the 2025 PGA Tour tournament beginning on June 19.

Travelers Championship picks

Best bet: Aberg to win (+2,200) & top-20 finish (-106)

I took Aberg to win the U.S. Open last week but his chances were derailed on Friday as the Swede reportedly dealt with migraines en route to shooting 76 and missing the cut.

Is there some risk that will recur this week? Sure, but I’m not losing sleep over it.

TPC River Highlands is a course that demands strong iron play and accuracy off-the-tee. Aberg has had an up-and-down season, but at his best he can drive the ball a mile and accurately. His monstrous distance should allow him to club down and hit even more fairways this week.

Aberg has already won a signature event this year, at the Genesis Invitational in February, and had back-to-back top 20s before the U.S. Open.

Key stat: Aberg ranks ninth in this field in average strokes gained at TPC River Highlands (+1.42) with a minimum of two starts, per DataGolf.

Go to full Travelers Championship betting markets.

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Golf picks

Straka to win (+3,300) & top-20 finish (+125): This course seems made for Straka, who, like Aberg, should be well rested after missing the cut at the U.S. Open.

The Austrian is a two-time winner this season and has finished inside the top 20 in 11 of his 14 non-major starts.

He ranks third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach (+0.986), ninth in driving accuracy (68.37%), and eighth in birdie-or-better conversion rate (35.62%).

Straka finished T10 here in 2021 and T23 last year — and he’s a much better golfer now than then.

Taylor to win (+9,000) & top-20 finish (+250): Finally, I’ll take a long-shot swing on Taylor.

The Canadian finished T23 at the U.S. Open last week, T13 at the RBC Canadian Open the week before that, and fourth at the Memorial Tournament the week before that.

So, you could say he’s on a heater.

Taylor hits fairways at a well-above-average rate (19th in driving accuracy)and is an elite ball-striker (12th in SG: APP). He’s also a proven winner, so these odds are calling my name.

Travelers Championship picks made at 2:06 p.m. on 06/17/2025.

Padres vs. Dodgers SGP predictions June 17: Back Ohtani and Hernandez at +420

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres continue their four-game series on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers won the opener in Shohei Ohtani‘s pitching debut with the club. He only went one inning, though, and L.A.’s pitching depth will be tested again as it rolls with another opener tonight.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, including Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Padres +3.5 | Hernandez to record an RBI | Ohtani to record a hit (+420)

Padres +3.5 (-278): San Diego is a big underdog tonight, even with some uncertainty on who will pitch the bulk of this game for Los Angeles.

Rotowire has Matt Sauer listed as the Dodgers’ expected starter, and the righty has mainly been used as a bulk reliever this year.

The last time he played was on June 10 against the Padres … and it did not go well:

4.2 IP
13 H
9 ER

Sauer might only go for an inning tonight, so I don’t want to put much stock into that. Regardless, covering this line should be achievable for the Pades.

San Diego is 14-1 against a +3.5 line over its last 15 games (4-0 vs. L.A. in that span).

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MLB SGP legs

Hernandez to record an RBI (+143): The Padres should keep this close, but I do expect L.A.’s offence to get its licks in on San Diego starter Randy Vasquez.

Vasquez’s 3.57 ERA seems innocent enough, but his 1.40 WHIP and fourth-percentile xERA (5.91) indicate he puts a ton of baserunners on.

Hernandez bats fifth in L.A.’s stacked lineup behind Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.

The former Toronto Blue Jay has three home runs in his last five games and is tied for 11th with 50 RBI despite missing 15 games this season.

Ohtani to record a hit (-375): Finally, let’s bank on the NL’s most talented hitter getting a knock.

Ohtani is on a tear right now, with a hit in 11 of his last 12 games. He is an unbelievable 7-for-10 in his last three games, knocking in a pair of runs last night.

Vasquez also has a 2nd percentile K rate (13.9%), meaning Ohtani is likely to put the ball in play at some point on Tuesday.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions made at 1:50 p.m. ET on 06/17/2025.