Bobby Witt Jr. and Manny Machado headline Sunday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: The Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres play out a rubber match at Petco Park, with each team starting a very hittable pitcher. Witt and Machado have been rolling and should capitalize on their respective matchups.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 22, which also includes a prediction on Tyler Freeman.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (-120)
Witt is a good bet to score on most nights, so I’m naturally going to jump on this prop when he’s facing a mid-tier (at best) arm.
Randy Vasquez is on the bump for the Padres today, and his 3.70 ERA might seem decent on the surface. But these advanced numbers, courtesy of Baseball Savant, paint an uglier picture:
- First percentile K rate (13.7%)
- Fourth percentile xERA (5.92)
- 18th percentile xBA (.274)
- 15th percentile walk rate (11.1%)
The righty doesn’t miss bats, walks a ton of batters, and ranks in the lower half of the league in hard-hit rate.
Witt, meanwhile, has been on a heater, posting a .375/.423/.792 slash line in his last six games. In that span, he’s gone 5-1 against this prop.
Key stat: Witt has scored 12 runs in 18 games this month.
Best MLB picks
Machado over 1.5 total bases (-121): Pitching opposite Vasquez is Seth Lugo, who is also having a somewhat fraudulent season.
The Royals veteran’s 4.94 xERA is nearly 200 points higher than his 3.05 ERA. That 1.89 delta is the ninth-highest in MLB.
Lugo also has a 35th percentile K rate (20.0%) and 15th percentile hard-hit rate (46.3%).
Machado is running into one this month, batting .313 with a .575 SLG. If he makes contact against Lugo’s unimpressive arsenal — which I expect — the results should be solid.
Freeman over 1.5 bases (-109): Freeman has been a bright spot on a historically bad Colorado Rockies team this year. Check out what the 26-year-old outfielder is doing in June:
- .411/.507/.571 slash line
- 1+ hit in 17 of 19 games
- 2+ bases in eight of 19 games
Freeman isn’t much of a power bat with just one home run on the season. But I like his chances of getting after Brandon Pfaadt at hitter-friendly Coors Field today.
Pfaadt has been a mess with the Arizona Diamondbacks lately, with a 10.13 ERA across his last five starts. The righty ranks in the first percentile for xERA (7.23) and xBA (.328) in MLB, so I doubt any positive regression is coming.
Also, six of Freeman’s eight extra-base hits have come vs. RHP this season.
MLB prop picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET on 06/22/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.