Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

2025 NBA draft odds and projected lottery picks: Cooper Flagg tops board, Ace Bailey falls after cancelling workouts

2025 NBA draft odds

The 2025 NBA draft is less than a week away, and while the first two picks seem like a formality, there is plenty of intrigue down the board.

The latest: Cooper Flagg will be a Dallas Maverick unless something incredible happens between now and draft day. Dylan Harper’s landing spot seems predestined, too, with the San Antonio Spurs holding the No. 2 pick. Ace Bailey, meanwhile, has turned heads after cancelling several pre-draft workouts.

Here are the latest 2025 NBA draft odds for the first overall pick and more in the 2025 NBA draft on June 25.

2025 NBA draft odds

Check out the latest odds for who will be the first player drafted.

PlayerOdds to go first overallOdds to go second overall
Cooper Flagg-10,000+15,000
Dylan Harper+3,300-10,000
Ace Bailey+10,000+2,500
VJ Edgecombe+12,500+2,200
Tre Johnson+12,500+1,5000
Khaman Maluach+15,000+15,000

2025 NBA draft odds as of 06/25/2025 at 9:15 am.

Best 2025 NBA draft odds

The favourite: Flagg (-10,000)

Flagg’s -10,000 odds to get selected first means there’s a 99.01% implied probability he lands with the Mavericks. It also means you would have to wager $10,000 to win $100. Where’s the fun in that?

I would say a 99% chance seems low, though, considering how great the forward was at Duke this year.

Flagg won the Naismith College Player of the Year award as a freshman, averaging 19.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while playing elite defence and guiding the Blue Devils to the Final Four.

There isn’t much more to say here — Flagg has been the slam-dunk first overall pick for the last few months, and nothing should change that with a few days to go.

The favourite to go second overall: Harper (-10,000)

Harper’s father, Ron, played 15 seasons in the NBA and won five NBA championships.

Those are huge shoes to fill, but the Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard is expected to be more than a great role player, which Ron was.

He averaged 19.4 PPG in a deep Big 10 conference and should form a perfect one-two punch with De’Aaron Fox in San Antonio’s backcourt.

Add that to Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs should be cooking with gas.

Other 2025 NBA draft odds

PlayerOdds to go third overall
V.J. Edgecombe-350
Tre Johnson+500
Ace Bailey+600
Kon Knueppel+600
Dylan Harper+2,000
Khaman Maluach+3,000
Jeremiah Fears+5,000
Derik Queen+8,000

2025 NBA draft odds as of 06/25/2025 at 9:15 am.
  • V.J. Edgecombe is slated to be picked by the Philadelphia 76ers at No. 3. If that doesn’t happen, he’s still likely to go within the two following picks. The guard averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists with the Baylor Bears.
  • Bailey — Harper’s teammate on the Scarlet Knights — was the consensus No. 3 pick ahead of the draft. But the swingman has cancelled many of his pre-draft workouts, including one with the 76ers. He is still favoured to land within the top-five picks, though.

Toronto Raptors draft odds

The Raptors are slated to pick ninth this year, sliding two spots down the board in the draft lottery. Assuming they don’t trade the pick, here are a few players on the short list:

PlayerOdds to go ninth overall
Khaman Maluach+200
Noa Essengue+300
Kasparas Jakucionis+500
Derik Queen+500
Carter Bryant+650
Cedric Coward+700
Collin Murray-Boyles+900
Egor Demin+1,200
Jeremiah Fears+2,000

2025 NBA draft odds as of 06/25/2025 at 9:15 am.

  • Will Toronto hold onto the No. 9 overall pick? That might depend on whether they can swing a trade for Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo.
  • Let’s assume those pie-in-the-sky deals don’t come through. There are six prospects with odds inside of +1,000, starting with Khaman Maluach. The 7-foot-2 Sudanese centre averaged 8.6 points and 6.6 rebounds at Duke.
  • Noa Essengue (power forward) is an interesting international choice, averaging 12.4 points with Ratiopharm Ulm in the EuroCup last season.
  • Kasparas Jakucionis (guard) had a couple years of pro ball under his belt with Barcelona before averaging 15.0 PPG in NCAA Division I with the Illinois Flighting Illini.
  • Derik Queen (centre) made a name for himself with the Maryland Terrapins. He averaged 16.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game and had a strong March Madness tournament.
  • Carter Bryant (forward) is rather unpolished, only starting five games for a deep Arizona Wildcats squad. He seems like a reach in this position.

2025 NBA draft odds and projected lottery picks: Cooper Flagg tops board, Ace Bailey falls after cancelling workouts

2025 NBA draft odds

The 2025 NBA draft is less than a week away, and while the first two picks seem like a formality, there is plenty of intrigue down the board.

The latest: Cooper Flagg will be a Dallas Maverick unless something incredible happens between now and draft day. Dylan Harper’s landing spot seems predestined, too, with the San Antonio Spurs holding the No. 2 pick. Ace Bailey, meanwhile, has turned heads after cancelling several pre-draft workouts.

Here are the latest 2025 NBA draft odds for the first overall pick and more in the 2025 NBA draft on June 25.

2025 NBA draft odds

Check out the latest odds for who will be the first player drafted. Click odds to add selection to betslip.

PlayerOdds to go first overallOdds to go second overall
Cooper Flagg-10,000+25,000
Dylan Harper+25,000-10,000
VJ Edgecombe+25,000+2,500
Ace Bailey+25,000+3,000
Jeremiah FearsN/A+25,000
Kon KnueppelN/A+25,000

2025 NBA draft odds as of 06/25/2025 at 9:15 a.m.

Best 2025 NBA draft odds

The favourite: Flagg (-10,000)

Flagg’s -10,000 odds to get selected first means there’s a 99.01% implied probability he lands with the Mavericks. It also means you would have to wager $10,000 to win $100. Where’s the fun in that?

I would say a 99% chance seems low, though, considering how great the forward was at Duke this year.

Flagg won the Naismith College Player of the Year award as a freshman, averaging 19.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while playing elite defence and guiding the Blue Devils to the Final Four.

There isn’t much more to say here — Flagg has been the slam-dunk first overall pick for the last few months, and nothing should change that with a few days to go.

The favourite to go second overall: Harper (-10,000)

Harper’s father, Ron, played 15 seasons in the NBA and won five NBA championships.

Those are huge shoes to fill, but the Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard is expected to be more than a great role player, which Ron was.

He averaged 19.4 PPG in a deep Big 10 conference and should form a perfect one-two punch with De’Aaron Fox in San Antonio’s backcourt.

Add that to Victor Wembanyama, and the Spurs should be cooking with gas.

Other 2025 NBA draft odds

PlayerOdds to go third overallOdds to be drafted in top five
V.J. Edgecombe-305-5,000
Tre Johnson+550-400
Ace Bailey+600-200
Kon Knueppel+800-1,000
Dylan Harper+3,000N/A
Khaman Maluach+3,000+400
Jeremiah Fears+10,000+225
Derik Queen+10,000+6,000

2025 NBA draft odds as of 06/25/2025 at 9:15 a.m.
  • V.J. Edgecombe is slated to be picked by the Philadelphia 76ers at No. 3. If that doesn’t happen, he still holds -5,000 odds to go within the two following picks. The guard averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists with the Baylor Bears.
  • Bailey — Harper’s teammate on the Scarlet Knights — was the consensus No. 3 pick ahead of the draft. But the swingman has cancelled many of his pre-draft workouts, including one with the 76ers. He is still favoured to land within the top-five picks, though.

Toronto Raptors draft odds

The Raptors are slated to pick ninth this year, sliding two spots down the board in the draft lottery. Assuming they don’t trade the pick, here are a few players on the short list:

PlayerOdds to go ninth overall
Khaman Maluach+200
Noa Essengue+350
Kasparas Jakucionis+500
Derik Queen+500
Carter Bryant+500
Cedric Coward+800
Jeremiah Fears+1,400
Ace Bailey+1,600

2025 NBA draft odds as of 06/25/2025 at 9:15 a.m.

  • Will Toronto hold onto the No. 9 overall pick? That might depend on whether they can swing a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis sits at 10-to-1 to join Toronto.
  • Let’s assume those pie-in-the-sky deals don’t come through. There are five prospects with odds inside of +1,000, starting with Khaman Maluach. The 7-foot-2 Sudanese centre averaged 8.6 points and 6.6 rebounds at Duke.
  • Noa Essengue (power forward) is an interesting international choice, averaging 12.4 points with Ratiopharm Ulm in the EuroCup last season.
  • Kasparas Jakucionis (guard) had a couple years of pro ball under his belt with Barcelona before averaging 15.0 PPG in NCAA Division I with the Illinois Flighting Illini.
  • Derik Queen (centre) made a name for himself with the Maryland Terrapins. He averaged 16.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game and had a strong March Madness tournament.
  • Carter Bryant (forward) is rather unpolished, only starting five games for a deep Arizona Wildcats squad. He seems like a reach in this position.

UFC 317 fight card and betting odds: Ilia Topuria is favoured in his move to lightweight

UFC 317 odds

Ilia Topuria makes his lightweight debut at UFC 317 against the legendary Charles Oliveira with the vacated title on the line.

The pre-fight narrative: Topuria cleared out the featherweight division and is a massive favourite to win after jumping up a weight class. Before that, Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight title in a long-awaited bout against Kai Kara-France.

Check out my UFC 317 odds and the fight card for the June 28 event in Las Vegas.

UFC 317 odds

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

FighterOddsWeight classOddsFighter
Ilia Topuria (3)-455Lightweight+340Charles Oliveira (2)
Alexandre Pantoja (C)-295Flyweight+225Kai Kara-France
Beneil Dariush (9)-103Lightweight-121Renato Moicano (11)
Brandon Royval (1)-105Flyweight-118Joshua Van (12)
Payton Talbott+160Bantamweight-200Felipe Lima

UFC 317 odds as of 3:00 p.m. on 06/24/2025.

See all UFC 317 fights and betting lines

Topuria vs. Oliveira main event

When Topruia vacated his lightweight title to move up a division, his goal was to challenge Islam Makhachev for the lightweight belt.

But Makhachev made a weight change of his own, sliding up to welterweight to take on Jack Della Maddalena for that title.

Fans will have to wait for Topuria vs. Makhachev. But getting this matchup in the meantime isn’t a bad consolation prize.

Oliveira was once the king of 155 pounds and holds the UFC record for most finishes (20) by any competitor. He lost the belt to Makhachev back in 2022 and will have a chance to summit the mountaintop again on Saturday.

But the undefeated Topuria is expected to win after knocking out two legends, Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, in his last two fights.

UFC 317 Pantoja vs. Kara-France odds

  • Pantoja is heavily favoured to defend his title for a fourth time. The Brazilian is on a seven-fight winning streak, taking three of those by submission. That includes his most recent win over Kai Asakura in December (rear-naked choke).
  • Kara-France first fought for the interim flyweight title in 2022 but lost to Brandon Moreno. He’s back in the mix after logging a decisive Round 1 win over Steve Erceg at UFC 305 last August. This fight was originally scheduled for April but has been pushed back several times.

Dariush vs. Moicano odds

  • Dariush was on an eight-fight winning streak before taking a pair of first-round KO losses to Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. Now, he’s in a pick’em against Moicano, who logged back-to-back TKOs before losing to Makhachev on short notice at UFC 311.

Royval vs. Van odds

  • Royval is the No. 1 flyweight contender, and a win here would surely get him another look at the title. He is 5-1 in his last six fights. His only loss in that span came to Pantoja with the championship on the line at UFC 296.
  • Van could really propel himself into superstardom with a win. The 23-year-old is 8-1 in the UFC and has won four straight fights — including two this year — heading into this event.

Talbott vs. Lima odds

  • Talbott holds the higher rank, and a 9-1 career MMA record, but is an underdog to Lima. The “Jungle Boy” carries a 14-fight win streak into this event, having not lost since his MMA debut back in 2015.

Juventus vs. Manchester City SGP predictions June 26: Bet on Haaland and Yildiz at the FIFA Club World Cup

Juventus vs. Manchester City predictions

The final day of the FIFA Club World Cup group stage begins on Thursday with a big matchup between Juventus and Manchester City.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are already through to the Round of 16 after convincingly winning their first two games, but the top spot in Group G is still up for grabs. Manchester City is on a four-game winning streak dating back to May 20, while Juventus has been in great form under its new manager.

Check out my Juventus vs. Manchester City SGP predictions for June 26, featuring Erling Haaland and Kenan Yildiz.

Juventus vs. Manchester City predictions

Parlay: Manchester City under 2.5 goals | Haaland 1+ SOT | Yildiz 1+ SOT (+285)

Manchester City under 2.5 goals (-335): If you want to bump up the value on this SGP from +285 to +525, you could take Manchester City under 1.5 goals, which is +102 as a standalone.

I think that’s a viable play, but will opt for more safety by teasing the total up a goal.

Juventus has been a great defensive team all season, whether it was with Thiago Motta coaching or the newly appointed Igor Tudor.

Since Tudor joined on March 23, Juventus is 7-3-1, holding 10 of those opponents under 1.5 goals. Granted, Juve hasn’t gone up against a team like Manchester City yet, which has all-world striker Haaland at the helm.

But Man City has some problems of its own, especially in the midfield, with Rodri not back to playing full 90s and Kevin De Bruyne leaving for Napoli.

City won 6-0 against UAE side Al Ain on Sunday, but went under 2.5 goals in eight of nine games before that.

Go to full Juventus vs. Manchester City betting markets

Other SGP legs

Haaland 1+ SOT (-455): Haaland is coming off a “down season” for the Citizens. I put that in quotations because he still scored 22 goals in 31 EPL games, while adding another eight in the Champions League.

That’s well below his career highs with Man City, but it just goes to show you what kind of floor the Norwegian possesses.

Haaland scored a goal and added an assist during Saturday’s rout of Al Ain and added a team-high four shots on target.

He’s registered a SOT in 20 of 24 fixtures this year, with multiple shots on target in 12 of those games.

Yildiz 1+ SOT (+132): Yildiz has become a favourite of Tudor, and it’s not hard to see why.

  • The Turkish national has scored in three straight games with the club.
  • He has logged a goal contribution in six of his last nine games.
  • During that stretch, he has eight shots on target, going 6-3 vs. this line.

Yildiz has been the driving force of Juventus’ attack this tournament, slotting in a deadly top three with Kolo Muani and Francisco Conceicao.

Juventus vs. Manchester City predictions made at 12:20 p.m. on 06/24/2025.

Red Sox vs. Angels SGP predictions June 24: Bet on Rob Refsnyder, Mike Trout at +350

Red Sox vs. Angels predictions

The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels continue their three-game series on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Boston lost the opener yesterday, after giving up four runs in the eighth inning, but is favoured to rebound with southpaw Garrett Crochet (2.20 ERA) on the mound. Los Angeles counters with a lefty of its own, Tyler Anderson (4.56 ERA), who has gotten rocked in June.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Angels predictions, including Rob Refsnyder and Mike Trout.

Red Sox vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Red Sox -1.5 | Refsnyder 1+ hits | Trout 1+ hits (+350)

Red Sox -1.5 (-104): This is about as big of a pitching mismatch as you’ll find in baseball.

Crochet has been the acquisition of the season so far, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through 16 starts with the Red Sox.

He leads MLB in strikeouts (125) and ranks in the top-third percentile for every single advanced metric provided by Baseball Savant.

On the other end is Anderson, whose 27th-percentile xERA (4.52) is right in line with his actual number.

The lefty has an 8.10 ERA across four starts in June. One of those was against the Red Sox, where he gave up seven hits and five earned runs in 4.1 IP.

Boston ranks fourth in wRC+ versus lefties (119) while Los Angeles is 22nd (80).

Embed: #115135

MLB SGP legs

Refsnyder 1+ hits (-195): Refsnyder has been terrorizing left-handed pitchers all season.

  • .315 batting average
  • .611 slugging percentage
  • 175 wRC+

Eight of the outfielder’s 10 extra-base hits have come against southpaws. He also has a stellar history against Anderson in limited at-bats (4-for-8, one double).

Refsnyder is batting leadoff for the Sox on the road, meaning he should have ample opportunities at the plate to record a knock.

Trout 1+ hits (-177): Trout is having the worst year of his professional career, but the floodgates have to open sooner or later … right?

The future Hall of Famer is batting a paltry .225 through 52 games after an awful start to the year. He’s been a bit better since returning from injury in late May, slashing .284/.410/.407 with a hit in 16 of 23 outings.

Trout’s 78th-percentile xBA (.279) and 97th-percentile xSLG (.577) indicate there’s a lot left in the tank. I think he can put one into play against Crochet with a platoon advantage.

Red Sox vs. Angels predictions made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 06/24/2025.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for Game 7 of the NBA Finals: Bet on the Thunder star to produce vs. Pacers

Gilgeous-Alexander props

It’s do-or-die in the NBA Finals, as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for Game 7.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the driving force behind OKC’s historic season. The Canadian and newly minted MVP is coming off his worst game of the series, but he can set the record straight and establish his legacy with a strong closeout game on Sunday.

Check out these Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for Game 7

Gilgeous-Alexander marketsBetting odds
Over 32.5 points-112
Under 32.5 points-125
Over 4.5 rebounds-163
Under 4.5 rebounds+115
Over 6.5 assists+115
Under 6.5 assists-163
Over 44.5 PRA-120
Under 44.5 PRA-118
Over 1.5 threes+105
Under 1.5 threes-143

Best SGA prop bet

Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 11.5 rebounds and assists (+100)

Gilgeous-Alexander, like the rest of OKC’s starting five, had a tough go during Game 6 on Friday.

He scored a series-low 21 points and had eight turnovers — more than his rebounds (four) and assists (two) combined.

But I’m expecting a big response from the MVP back at home on a few days’ rest.

SGA was 3-2 against this line in the NBA Finals prior to Game 6, and averaged 11.4 rebounds/assists during the regular season.

That includes a 2-1 mark at home, when he’s averaged 4.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists this series. I love to see his assist total that high, and expect a larger output on the glass given Indiana’s rebounding struggles.

The Pacers rank 12th out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate.

Also, both teams have played with a frenzied pace this postseason and series. More shots mean more assists and rebounding opportunities for SGA.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has had 11+ rebounds/assists in five of his last six home games (4-2 vs. this line).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on 06/22/2025.

Lionel Messi props vs. Palmeiras June 23: Bet on Inter Miami star in FIFA Club World Cup match

Lionel Messi props

Lionel Messi and Inter Miami are back in action at the FIFA Club World Cup on Monday with a chance to win Group A.

The pregame narrative: Messi scored the game-winning goal against Porto on June 19, keeping Miami unbeaten through two fixtures. Its Matchday 3 opponent, Palmeiras, is also 1-1-0, meaning a win would put the Herons atop the group and into the knock stage.

Check out these Lionel Messi props for the June 23 game against Palmeiras.

Lionel Messi props vs. Palmeiras

Messi marketsBetting odds
To score+240
To score 2+ goals+1,600
To score 3+ goals+12,500
To assist+510
To score or assist+148
Over 1.5 shots on target+190
Over 3.5 shot attempts+140

Best Messi prop bet

Best Bet: Messi to score or assist (+148)

Father Time hasn’t caught up with Messi just yet.

The Argentine legend has been scoring at a monstrous clip since joining Inter Miami, and has 10 goals through 13 MLS games this season.

He’s also added six assists, which puts him well in contention to lead the league once the Herons catch up on games after this tournament.

Messi and Miami were shut out in a 0-0 draw to open this tournament, but the 37-year-old capitalized on this vintage free kick the following game:

Palmeiras is a respectable club, sitting fourth in the Brazilian Serie A. But they’re far from unbeatable.

And with Palmeiras currently ahead on goal differential, I expect Inter Miami to be gunning for goals.

Key stat: Messi is 10-7 against this line with Inter Miami this year.

Lionel Messi prop odds as of 3:56 p.m. ET on 06/22/2025.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for Game 7 of the NBA Finals: Bet on the Thunder star to produce vs. Pacers

Gilgeous-Alexander props

It’s do-or-die in the NBA Finals, as the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers for Game 7.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the driving force behind OKC’s historic season. The Canadian and newly minted MVP is coming off his worst game of the series, but he can set the record straight and establish his legacy with a strong closeout game on Sunday.

Check out these Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props for Game 7

Gilgeous-Alexander marketsBetting odds
Over 32.5 points-112
Under 32.5 points-120
Over 4.5 rebounds-159
Under 4.5 rebounds+118
Over 6.5 assists+110
Under 6.5 assists-143
Over 44.5 PRA-112
Under 44.5 PRA-120
Over 1.5 threes-103
Under 1.5 threes-130
To record a double-double+460

Best SGA prop bet

Best Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-110)

Gilgeous-Alexander, like the rest of OKC’s starting five, had a tough go during Game 6 on Friday.

He scored a series-low 21 points and had eight turnovers — more than his rebounds (four) and assists (two) combined.

But I’m expecting a big response from the MVP back at home on a few days’ rest.

SGA was 3-2 against this line in the NBA Finals prior to Game 6, and averaged 11.4 rebounds/assists during the regular season.

That includes a 2-1 mark at home, when he’s averaged 4.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists this series. I love to see his assist total that high, and expect a larger output on the glass given Indiana’s rebounding struggles.

The Pacers rank 12th out of 16 playoff teams in rebounding rate.

Also, both teams have played with a frenzied pace this postseason and series. More shots mean more assists and rebounding opportunities for SGA.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has had 11+ rebounds/assists in five of his last six home games (4-2 vs. this line).

Embed: #115072

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on 06/22/2025.

Shohei Ohtani props vs. Nationals June 22: Dodgers start makes second start of season

Shohei Ohtani props

Shohei Ohtani is back on the rubber, opening for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Sunday’s rubber match against the Washington Nationals.

The pregame narrative: Ohtani made his pitching debut with L.A. last Monday against the San Diego Padres, throwing one full inning and reaching 100 mph with his fastball. His Dodgers are massive road favourites against a Nationals team that is 4-13 this month.

Check out these Shohei Ohtani props for the June 22 matchup against the Nationals.

Shohei Ohtani props vs. Nationals

Ohtani marketsBetting odds
Over 0.5 runs-220
Under 0.5 runs+155
Over 0.5 RBI+100
Under 0.5 RBI-132
Over 1.5 total bases-137
Under 1.5 total bases-103
To hit a double+325
To hit a home run+188

Note: There are no Ohtani pitching props available as of 12:00 p.m. ET. We’ll update this story if anything is posted.

Best Ohtani prop bet

Best Bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-137)

Hopefully, it won’t be long before Ohtani is throwing deep into ballgames and mowing down batters. But right now, it’s simply too early to predict what he’s going to do on the rubber.

I can say with confidence, though, that Ohtani should get after Washington’s Michael Soroka.

The once-promising Canadian arm is having a bit of a comeback season, sporting his lowest WHIP (1.13) since he was a starter with the Atlanta Braves in 2019.

Soroka’s 3.40 xERA is also notably lower than his 5.06 ERA, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky.

But the righty still gives up a ton of hard contact, and has gotten shelled for four home runs and seven earned runs in his last two starts.

Soroka throws a fastball/slurve/splitter pitch mix, and Ohtani has destroyed those types of pitches this year.

  • Ohtani vs. fastballs (splitters incl.): .318 batting average, .697 slugging percentage
  • Ohtani vs. sliders (slurve incl.): .322 batting average, .658 slugging percentage.

I’ll get in on this wager despite the juice and Ohtani’s cold spell (0-for-5 against this line in his last five games).

Key stat: Ohtani ranks second in total bases per game (2.42).

Shohei Ohtani prop odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on 06/22/2025.

Best MLB prop bets June 22: Bet on Bobby Witt Jr. and Manny Machado to do damage

MLB prop bets

Bobby Witt Jr. and Manny Machado headline Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Kansas City Royals and San Diego Padres play out a rubber match at Petco Park, with each team starting a very hittable pitcher. Witt and Machado have been rolling and should capitalize on their respective matchups.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 22.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (-120)

Witt is a good bet to score on most nights, so I’m naturally going to jump on this prop when he’s facing a mid-tier (at best) arm.

Randy Vasquez is on the bump for the Padres today, and his 3.70 ERA might seem decent on the surface. But these advanced numbers, courtesy of Baseball Savant, paint an uglier picture:

  • First percentile K rate (13.7%)
  • Fourth percentile xERA (5.92)
  • 18th percentile xBA (.274)
  • 15th percentile walk rate (11.1%)

The righty doesn’t miss bats, walks a ton of batters, and ranks in the lower half of the league in hard-hit rate.

Witt, meanwhile, has been on a heater, posting a .375/.423/.792 slash line in his last six games. In that span, he’s gone 5-1 against this prop.

Key stat: Witt has scored 12 runs in 18 games this month.

Best MLB picks

Machado over 1.5 total bases (+105): Pitching opposite Vasquez is Seth Lugo, who is also having a somewhat fraudulent season.

The Royals veteran’s 4.94 xERA is nearly 200 points higher than his 3.05 ERA. That 1.89 delta is the ninth-highest in MLB.

Lugo also has a 35th percentile K rate (20.0%) and 15th percentile hard-hit rate (46.3%).

Machado is running into one this month, batting .313 with a .575 SLG. If he makes contact against Lugo’s unimpressive arsenal — which I expect — the results should be solid.

MLB prop picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET on 06/22/2025.