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Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions, picks and odds: Back Scottie Scheffler and two long shots

One of the biggest stops on the PGA Tour arrives with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler won this event last year — and in 2022 — and is favoured to defend his title with +350 odds. I’m betting on Scheffler alongside Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris, who are long shots this week.

Check out my Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on March 6.

Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

Go to full Arnold Palmer Invitational betting markets .

Best bet: Scottie Scheffler to win (+300)

Betting on Scheffler to win at this number is unpalatable and is the reason I’m staying away from picking anyone else with relatively short odds.

But I would rather buy in on the reigning champion at +350 than miss out on his title defence altogether.

Scheffler has had a “slow” start to the season — meaning he hasn’t won anything yet. That said, he finished T3 at the Genesis Invitational and T9 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a T25 at the WM Phoenix Open mixed in.

Most players would kill for a run like that.

Anyone who watches golf knows how talented Scheffler is, specifically as a ball striker. Bay Hill places a premium on that skill, which is why the Texan has had so much success here:

Scheffler has two wins and a T4 in his last three starts at Bay Hill.
His +3.35 average strokes gained per round at Bay Hill is 0.79 greater than Rory McIlroy, who sits in second place, according to DataGolf

Just plug your nose and ride with the No. 1 player in the world.

Key stat: Scheffler won seven PGA Tour events last year, which is the fifth-most in a single season.

Quick picks

Zalatoris to win (+4,000): I’m also keen on backing Scheffler because I can get two serious players at 40-to-1 odds or greater.

Let’s start with Zalatoris, who finished T4 at this event last year and ranks eighth in average strokes gained per round (+1.64) at Bay Hill.

The 28-year-old hasn’t been lighting the world on fire but plays his best golf at the toughest venues, which bodes well here.

Still, he’s made the cut in eight straight events with four top-20 finishes mixed in. Zalatoris has always been an elite ball striker, and I can see him winning if the putter gets hot.

Hovland to win (+5,000): Hovland was neck and neck with the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy after winning the Tour Championship in 2023.

His fall from the top has been precipitous, but I don’t think he’ll stay down for much longer.

Hovland has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts, which is the Norwegian’s bread and butter. He’s still struggling around the greens, but that’s always been an issue — and Bay Hill has treated Hovland well before.

He was runner-up to Scheffler in 2022 and finished T10 here the year after that.

Golf picks made at 3:28 p.m. on 03/03/2025.

Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions, picks and odds: Back Scottie Scheffler and two long shots

One of the biggest stops on the PGA Tour arrives with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

The latest: Scottie Scheffler won this event last year — and in 2022 — and is favoured to defend his title with +350 odds. I’m betting on Scheffler alongside Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris, who are long shots this week.

Check out my Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on March 6.

Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

Embed: #110694

Go to full Arnold Palmer Invitational betting markets.

Best bet: Scottie Scheffler to win (+350)

Betting on Scheffler to win at this number is unpalatable and is the reason I’m staying away from picking anyone else with relatively short odds.

But I would rather buy in on the reigning champion at +350 than miss out on his title defence altogether.

Scheffler has had a “slow” start to the season — meaning he hasn’t won anything yet. That said, he finished T3 at the Genesis Invitational and T9 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a T25 at the WM Phoenix Open mixed in.

Most players would kill for a run like that.

Anyone who watches golf knows how talented Scheffler is, specifically as a ball striker. Bay Hill places a premium on that skill, which is why the Texan has had so much success here:

Scheffler has two wins and a T4 in his last three starts at Bay Hill.
His +3.35 average strokes gained per round at Bay Hill is 0.79 greater than Rory McIlroy, who sits in second place, according to DataGolf

Just plug your nose and ride with the No. 1 player in the world.

Key stat: Scheffler won seven PGA Tour events last year, which is the fifth-most in a single season.

Quick picks

Zalatoris to win (+5,000) & top-20 finish (+163): I’m also keen on backing Scheffler because I can get two serious players at 50-to-1 odds or greater.

Let’s start with Zalatoris, who finished T4 at this event last year and ranks eighth in average strokes gained per round (+1.64) at Bay Hill.

The 28-year-old hasn’t been lighting the world on fire but plays his best golf at the toughest venues, which bodes well here.

Still, he’s made the cut in eight straight events with four top-20 finishes mixed in. Zalatoris has always been an elite ball striker, and I can see him winning if the putter gets hot.

Hovland to win (+5,500) & top-20 finish (+175): Hovland was neck and neck with the likes of Scheffler and McIlroy after winning the Tour Championship in 2023.

His fall from the top has been precipitous, but I don’t think he’ll stay down for much longer.

Hovland has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts, which is the Norwegian’s bread and butter. He’s still struggling around the greens, but that’s always been an issue — and Bay Hill has treated Hovland well before.

He was runner-up to Scheffler in 2022 and finished T10 here the year after that.

Golf picks made at 3:28 p.m. on 03/03/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 3: Bet on Auston Matthews, Cole Caufield to find the net

Auston Matthews and Cole Caufield are my picks to score during Monday’s NHL action.

The pregame narrative: Matthews is having a down year but draws an A-plus matchup against the San Jose Sharks. Caufield, meanwhile, has been surging and holds solid value to score against the Buffalo Sabres.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 3.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (-120)

This is a steeper price to pay for an anytime goalscorer prop.

If you’re not into that, it’s understandable — I also like William Nylander to score for Toronto tonight at plus money, which I explain in my Maple Leafs vs. Sharks prop bets.

But I’m double-dipping on Toronto’s top dogs and for good reason. The Sharks are closer to an AHL team than a Stanley Cup contender and rank near the bottom of the NHL in a handful of meaningful defensive categories.

Check out how San Jose sits defensively on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick:

32nd in goals (3.67)
32nd in shots (31.9)
31st in chances (66.33)
29th in high-danger chances (12.69)

That’s really, really bad.

Matthews hasn’t quite been himself this season but just got off the schneid on Sunday and is carrying a nine-game point streak into tonight’s contest.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner should have a boatload of opportunities to light the lamp tonight.

Key stat: Matthews has 12 goals in 13 career games against the Sharks, scoring in four of the last five meetings between these teams.

Quick pick

Caufield anytime goalscorer (+155): Team USA decided to leave Caufield at home for the 4 Nations Face-Off and it looks like the 24-year-old is using that to fuel the fire.

He’s scored in back-to-back games and now sits at 29 goals on the season, which is a career-high mark.

Caufield and the Canadiens aren’t expected to win on most nights but Montreal should have a solid chance at picking up points against Buffalo.

The Sabres give up the eighth-most high-danger chances per 60 (11.59).
Buffalo has the fifth-worst save percentage in the NHL (.893).

Caufield scored a goal against the Sabres on Saturday and had two goals against them on Nov. 11.

Picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 03/02/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 3: Bet on Auston Matthews, Cole Caufield to find the net

Auston Matthews and Cole Caufield are my picks to score during Monday’s NHL action.

The pregame narrative: Matthews is having a down year but draws an A-plus matchup against the San Jose Sharks. Caufield, meanwhile, has been surging and holds solid value to score against the Buffalo Sabres.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 3.

NHL anytime goal picks

Embed: #110697

Best Bet: Matthews anytime goalscorer (-150)

This is a steep price to pay for an anytime goalscorer prop.

If you’re not into that, it’s understandable — I also like William Nylander to score for Toronto tonight at plus money, which I explain in my Maple Leafs vs. Sharks prop bets.

But I’m double-dipping on Toronto’s top dogs and for good reason. The Sharks are closer to an AHL team than a Stanley Cup contender and rank near the bottom of the NHL in a handful of meaningful defensive categories.

Check out how San Jose sits defensively on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick:

32nd in goals (3.67)
32nd in shots (31.9)
31st in chances (66.33)
29th in high-danger chances (12.69)

That’s really, really bad.

Matthews hasn’t quite been himself this season but just got off the schneid on Sunday and is carrying a nine-game point streak into tonight’s contest.

The three-time Rocket Richard winner should have a boatload of opportunities to light the lamp tonight.

Key stat: Matthews has 12 goals in 13 career games against the Sharks, scoring in four of the last five meetings between these teams.

Quick pick

Caufield anytime goalscorer (+155): Team USA decided to leave Caufield at home for the 4 Nations Face-Off and it looks like the 24-year-old is using that to fuel the fire.

He’s scored in back-to-back games and now sits at 29 goals on the season, which is a career-high mark.

Caufield and the Canadiens aren’t expected to win on most nights but Montreal should have a solid chance at picking up points against Buffalo.

The Sabres give up the eighth-most high-danger chances per 60 (11.59).
Buffalo has the fifth-worst save percentage in the NHL (.893).

Caufield scored a goal against the Sabres on Saturday and had two goals against them on Nov. 11.

Picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 03/02/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Sharks March 3: Bet on Nylander and Rielly to find the stat sheet

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a good chance of extending their winning streak when they host the San Jose Sharks on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence is firing on all cylinders, and now it gets one of the worst teams in the NHL. I expect it to be point night at Scotiabank Arena for the Leafs and am backing Morgan Rielly and William Nylander to find the stat sheet.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Sharks for March 3.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Sharks

Best Bet: Rielly 1+ points (+115)

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies all hold odds of -150 or shorter to register a point.

That tells you two things: Firstly, Toronto’s offence is rolling. But more importantly, San Jose is terrible.

The Sharks rank last or near the bottom of the NHL in almost every defensive category on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick:

32nd in goals (3.67)
32nd in shots (31.9)
31st in chances (66.33)
29th in high-danger chances (12.69)

Rielly is having a bad offensive year by his standards but has found some form recently with points in seven of his last nine games.

In that span, he’s scored two goals and logged eight assists.

Rielly leads the Maple Leafs in ice time and has been productive on the team’s second power-play unit lately. I expect him to turn in another strong performance.

Key stat: Rielly has recorded a point in nine of his last 10 games vs. the Sharks.

Quick pick

Nylander to score (+115): Nylander nonchalantly tucked his 35th goal of the season under the bar on Sunday, securing a victory for the Buds.

https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1896301523694460946

The Rocket Richard is likely out of reach with Leon Draisaitl (44 goals) boatracing the field, but Nylander is tied for second in the league and is on pace for a career-high 47 goals.

With that said, I’m shocked we can get him at plus money tonight.

I’ve covered the Sharks’ defensive problems, and all of that applies to Nylander. Toronto’s power play is cooking at the sixth-best rate since Feb. 1 (32.0%) and the Swedish winger is a big part of the first unit’s recent success.

San Jose has the ninth-worst penalty kill this season.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Sharks March 3: Bet on Nylander and Rielly to find the stat sheet

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a good chance of extending their winning streak when they host the San Jose Sharks on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence is firing on all cylinders, and now it gets one of the worst teams in the NHL. I expect it to be point night at Scotiabank Arena for the Leafs and am backing Morgan Rielly and William Nylander to find the stat sheet.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Sharks for March 3.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Sharks

Best Bet: Rielly 1+ points (-109)

Embed: #110675

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies all hold odds of -150 or shorter to register a point.

That tells you two things: Firstly, Toronto’s offence is rolling. But more importantly, San Jose is terrible.

The Sharks rank last or near the bottom of the NHL in almost every defensive category on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick:

32nd in goals (3.67)
32nd in shots (31.9)
31st in chances (66.33)
29th in high-danger chances (12.69)

Rielly is having a bad offensive year by his standards but has found some form recently with points in seven of his last nine games.

In that span, he’s scored two goals and logged eight assists.

Rielly leads the Maple Leafs in ice time and has been productive on the team’s second power-play unit lately. I expect him to turn in another strong performance.

Key stat: Rielly has recorded a point in nine of his last 10 games vs. the Sharks.

Quick pick

Nylander to score (+107): Nylander nonchalantly tucked his 35th goal of the season under the bar on Sunday, securing a victory for the Buds.

https://twitter.com/NHL/status/1896301523694460946

The Rocket Richard is likely out of reach with Leon Draisaitl (44 goals) boatracing the field, but Nylander is tied for second in the league and is on pace for a career-high 47 goals.

With that said, I’m shocked we can get him at plus money tonight.

I’ve covered the Sharks’ defensive problems, and all of that applies to Nylander. Toronto’s power play is cooking at the sixth-best rate since Feb. 1 (32.0%) and the Swedish winger is a big part of the first unit’s recent success.

San Jose has the ninth-worst penalty kill this season.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

Kings vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions March 3: Bet on DeRozan, Thompson in +330 SGP

The Dallas Mavericks host the Sacramento Kings on Monday night with each team missing bodies.

The pregame narrative: Nearly all of Dallas’ big men are sidelined while Domantas Sabonis is out for Sacramento. I expect DeMar DeRozan to have a solid game on the glass and Klay Thompson to go off from beyond the arc.

Check out my Kings vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for March 3.

Kings vs. Mavericks predictions

Parlay: DeRozan 4+ rebounds | Thompson 4+ threes | Under 244.5 points (+325)

Embed: #110655

DeRozan 4+ rebounds (-167): Fading Dallas’ rebounding abilities has been a theme lately, which isn’t exactly rocket science considering Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively are all out.

Typically, my attention would be on targeting the opposing centre — Jonas Valanciunas draws in for Sabonis on Monday — but I’m more confident in DeRozan reaching this attainable milestone.

DeRozan is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game this year.
He’s hit this mark in 8 of his last 9 games.
Dallas allows the 10th-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

DeRozan has a prime opportunity to outperform his baseline with all of the injuries in the frontcourt tonight.

NBA SGP picks

Thompson 4+ threes (+105): Thompson has turned back the clock since the all-star break, averaging 4.0 threes per night while shooting 50.0% from beyond the arc.

He’s cleared this total in four of those five games but the success really began when the calendar turned.

Thompson is averaging 3.3 threes on 7.7 attempts since Jan. 1 (42.7 3PT%).
He’s hit 3+ threes in 17 of 25 games and 4+ threes in 13 of 25 games.

The Kings are tied for the worst 3-point defence (37.6%) in basketball and Thompson shot 5-for-10 from deep against them in just 28 minutes on Feb. 10.

Under 244.5 points (-500): To round out this parlay I’m taking the under on a max-teased game total, lengthening the ticket’s odds from +225 to +330.

The under is 6-4 in the last two meetings between these teams with eight of 10 games falling under this number. The two outliers both required overtime and would have fallen under 235 points otherwise.

The Mavericks have slowed their game down significantly with their injuries, ranking 20th in pace since Feb. 1. The Kings rank 19th in the same span.

The under on this total is 8-2 in the Kings’ last 10 games and 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10.

Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 1: Back No. 2 Blue Devils, No. 3 Gators to cover alt spreads

It’s officially March, so let’s dial up a parlay for Saturday’s loaded NCAA basketball slate.

The pregame narrative: Today’s +310 wager is geared around the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and No. 3 Florida Gators covering alternate spreads at home. Taking the over on a teased-up total between the No. 22 Arizona Wildcats and No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 1.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Duke -19.5 | Florida -6.5 | Arizona/Iowa State over 149.5 points (+310)

Duke -19.5 (-175): This is a big number but it’s one the Blue Devils are more than capable of covering.

Duke is KenPom’s No. 1 ranked team, sitting second in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency

Only two other teams — the No. 3 Houston Cougars and Florida — rank inside the top 10 in both, with no team other than Duke ranking inside the top five.

Led by Wooden Award favourite Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils are a problem on both ends of the court. Third-year guard Tyrese Proctor is out tonight but his backup, freshman guard Isiah Evans, has dropped 16-plus points in three straight.

Duke has won four of its last five games by 20-plus points with the outlier being an 80-62 victory over Virginia at John Paul Jones Arena.

The Blue Devils are 9-6 ATS as a home favourite this year winning by an average of 25.4 points. FSU has dropped seven of its last 10 games and doesn’t stand a chance in this one.

Other parlay predictions

Florida -6.5 (-175): Florida has been even better as a home favourite, boasting a 10-4 ATS record according to Team Rankings.

It’s won those games by an average of 24.5 points and has covered this spread in five straight games at the O’Dome.

The No. 12 Aggies are no slouch but ride a nasty three-game losing streak into this game, dropping a pair of contests at home to the Tennessee Volunteers and Vanderbilt Commodores.

As mentioned earlier, Florida is stout on both ends of the court. A&M relies mainly on its defence and ranks 312th in effective FG%.

At home, the Aggies could maybe turn this into a rock fight. But on the road, I can’t see it happening.

Arizona/Iowa State over 149.5 points (-143): Finally, I want to take the over in a game between two strong offences that play fast.

Arizona: 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 51st in tempo (70.2).
Iowa State: 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 99th in tempo (68.9).

Tempo is a stat which logs how many possessions a team gets per 40 minutes, and while 51 and 99 might not seem high, keep in mind there are 364 NCAA Division I teams.

Four of Arizona’s last five games have cleared this total with the outlier landing on exactly 149 points.

When these teams met on Jan. 27, the Wildcats won an 86-75 barnburner in Arizona.

Picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/01/2025

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions March 1: Back No. 2 Blue Devils, No. 3 Gators to cover alt spreads

It’s officially March, so let’s dial up a parlay for Saturday’s loaded NCAA basketball slate.

The pregame narrative: Today’s +355 wager is geared around the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and No. 3 Florida Gators covering alternate spreads at home. Taking the over on a teased-up total between the No. 22 Arizona Wildcats and No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 1.

NCAA basketball predictions

Full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Duke -19.5 | Florida -6.5 | Arizona/Iowa State over 149.5 points (+355)

Duke -19.5 (-159): This is a big number but it’s one the Blue Devils are more than capable of covering.

Duke is KenPom’s No. 1 ranked team, sitting second in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency

Only two other teams — the No. 3 Houston Cougars and Florida — rank inside the top 10 in both, with no team other than Duke ranking inside the top five.

Led by Wooden Award favourite Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils are a problem on both ends of the court. Third-year guard Tyrese Proctor is out tonight but his backup, freshman guard Isiah Evans, has dropped 16-plus points in three straight.

Duke has won four of its last five games by 20-plus points with the outlier being an 80-62 victory over Virginia at John Paul Jones Arena.

The Blue Devils are 9-6 ATS as a home favourite this year winning by an average of 25.4 points. FSU has dropped seven of its last 10 games and doesn’t stand a chance in this one.

Other parlay predictions

Florida -6.5 (-152): Florida has been even better as a home favourite, boasting a 10-4 ATS record according to Team Rankings.

It’s won those games by an average of 24.5 points and has covered this spread in five straight games at the O’Dome.

The No. 12 Aggies are no slouch but ride a nasty three-game losing streak into this game, dropping a pair of contests at home to the Tennessee Volunteers and Vanderbilt Commodores.

As mentioned earlier, Florida is stout on both ends of the court. A&M relies mainly on its defence and ranks 312th in effective FG%.

At home, the Aggies could maybe turn this into a rock fight. But on the road, I can’t see it happening.

Arizona/Iowa State over 149.5 points (-148): Finally, I want to take the over in a game between two strong offences that play fast.

Arizona: 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 51st in tempo (70.2).
Iowa State: 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 99th in tempo (68.9).

Tempo is a stat which logs how many possessions a team gets per 40 minutes, and while 51 and 99 might not seem high, keep in mind there are 364 NCAA Division I teams.

Four of Arizona’s last five games have cleared this total with the outlier landing on exactly 149 points.

When these teams met on Jan. 27, the Wildcats won an 86-75 barnburner in Arizona.

Picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/01/2025

Warriors vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions March 1: Back Steph Curry and Paul George at +350

The Golden State Warriors aim to stay hot on Saturday when they take on the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers.

The pregame narrative: Golden State has won five straight and I expect it to cover a teased-down spread as a road favourite. Prop bets on Stephen Curry and Paul George round out this +350 SGP.

Check out my Warriors vs. 76ers same-game parlay predictions for March 1.

Warriors vs. 76ers predictions

Parlay: Warriors -4.5 | Curry 25+ points | George 20+ points (+410)

Embed: #110497

Warriors -4.5 (-215): Calling Philadelphia’s season a disaster would be an understatement. With Embiid officially out for the year, the organization’s focus is now on the draft lottery instead of the Larry O’Brien.

The 76ers sit at 20-38, having lost nine straight games entering play on March 1.
Six of those losses have come by 5+ points.
They’re a league-worst 20-36-2 ATS this season.

Golden State, meanwhile, has caught a heater following the acquisition of Jimmy Butler at the NBA trade deadline. The Dubs are 7-1 since the deal with a +15.9 net rating (second-best in NBA during that span).

Each of those wins has come by five-plus points — this should be a cinch.

SGP legs

Curry 25+ points (-210): Curry turned in a vintage performance his last time out, dropping 56 points on the Orlando Magic while going 12-for-19 from deep.

Asking for less than half of that production against the 76ers seems reasonable.

Philly has the sixth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and is allowing the second-most PPG to point guards this year, per Fantasy Pros.

Curry is prone to having quiet nights but was dynamite in February, averaging 30.7 points and clearing this line in eight of 12 games.

George 20+ points (-112): This is by far the riskiest leg in our parlay but I have a few reasons to believe George will come through.

First off — and perhaps most importantly — he has hung up the podcast mic for the rest of the season to “focus more on basketball.” Yeah, I think that’s a good call.

The veteran swingman dropped 25 points on Wednesday, which was also his first game since putting “Podcast P” on hiatus.

And analytically, this should be a great matchup to stay hot. Check out these numbers courtesy of Cleaning the Glass:

Golden State has the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (47.0%).
George takes 39% of his shots from the mid range, which ranks in the 88th percentile of all NBA players.

He scored 19 points on 7-of-12 shooting against the Dubs earlier this year with Embiid playing.

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.