It’s officially March, so let’s dial up a parlay for Saturday’s loaded NCAA basketball slate.
The pregame narrative: Today’s +310 wager is geared around the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and No. 3 Florida Gators covering alternate spreads at home. Taking the over on a teased-up total between the No. 22 Arizona Wildcats and No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for March 1.
NCAA basketball predictions
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Parlay: Duke -19.5 | Florida -6.5 | Arizona/Iowa State over 149.5 points (+310)
Duke -19.5 (-175): This is a big number but it’s one the Blue Devils are more than capable of covering.
Duke is KenPom’s No. 1 ranked team, sitting second in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency
Only two other teams — the No. 3 Houston Cougars and Florida — rank inside the top 10 in both, with no team other than Duke ranking inside the top five.
Led by Wooden Award favourite Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils are a problem on both ends of the court. Third-year guard Tyrese Proctor is out tonight but his backup, freshman guard Isiah Evans, has dropped 16-plus points in three straight.
Duke has won four of its last five games by 20-plus points with the outlier being an 80-62 victory over Virginia at John Paul Jones Arena.
The Blue Devils are 9-6 ATS as a home favourite this year winning by an average of 25.4 points. FSU has dropped seven of its last 10 games and doesn’t stand a chance in this one.
Other parlay predictions
Florida -6.5 (-175): Florida has been even better as a home favourite, boasting a 10-4 ATS record according to Team Rankings.
It’s won those games by an average of 24.5 points and has covered this spread in five straight games at the O’Dome.
The No. 12 Aggies are no slouch but ride a nasty three-game losing streak into this game, dropping a pair of contests at home to the Tennessee Volunteers and Vanderbilt Commodores.
As mentioned earlier, Florida is stout on both ends of the court. A&M relies mainly on its defence and ranks 312th in effective FG%.
At home, the Aggies could maybe turn this into a rock fight. But on the road, I can’t see it happening.
Arizona/Iowa State over 149.5 points (-143): Finally, I want to take the over in a game between two strong offences that play fast.
- Arizona: 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 51st in tempo (70.2).
- Iowa State: 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 99th in tempo (68.9).
Tempo is a stat which logs how many possessions a team gets per 40 minutes, and while 51 and 99 might not seem high, keep in mind there are 364 NCAA Division I teams.
Four of Arizona’s last five games have cleared this total with the outlier landing on exactly 149 points.
When these teams met on Jan. 27, the Wildcats won an 86-75 barnburner in Arizona.
Picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/01/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.