Avery Perri

I’ve got two picks for Friday’s March Madness action.

The pregame narrative: It’s not often a 6-seed is a first-round underdog, but that’s how the Ole Miss Rebels stand against the 11-seed North Carolina Tar Heels. I’m backing Ole Miss to win, though, and am also taking the Akron Zips to cover as underdogs.

Check out my March Madness predictions for NCAA college basketball action on March 21.

March Madness predictions

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Best bet: Ole Miss moneyline (+102)

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Many college basketball fans were apoplectic with UNC’s inclusion to the 68-team tournament field.

After all, the Tar Heels posted a 1-12 record against Quad 1 teams and were an uninspiring 22-13 overall.

North Carolina silenced the critics — at least temporarily — with a 27-point beatdown of San Diego State in the First Four play-in round. But I think the good times end there.

Ole Miss has a much better 8-10 record against Quad 1 opponents, which includes wins over Arkansas and Tennessee in the last two weeks.

Rebels players average 3.47 years of D-1 experience (third-highest in NCAA) and I love to see a veteran team like that in an underdog role. This could be the last gasp for a few seniors on the squad before hitting the LinkedIn portal and joining the real world, so expect them to put up a fight.

That seasoned group owns the second-lowest offensive turnover rate in D-I (12.8%) while UNC ranks 309th in defensive turnover rate.

There shouldn’t be many empty possessions for an Ole Miss offence that ranks 31st in efficiency. Look for the Rebels to light up the scoreboard and win.

Key stat: North Carolina has lost its last five Quad 1 games by an average of 13.0 points.

NCAA college basketball picks

Akron +14.5 (-112): I’ve got the No. 4 Arizona Wildcats advancing past the first weekend, but I think 13-seeded Akron can give them a scare on Friday.

The Mid-American Conference champions boasted an incredible 18-1 record in conference play and have an offence capable of lighting up the scoreboard:

• Akron ranks 30th in D-I in effective field goal percentage (55.4%) and 49th in 3-point percentage (36.6%).
  
• The Zips are averaging 88.5 points per game during their current seven-game winning streak.

Arizona ranks 33rd in defensive efficiency and is a class above Akron’s MAC competition but has struggled to dominate lesser opponents.

Against Quad 2 opponents — which Akron qualifies as — the Wildcats are 1-4 vs. this line while allowing 81.4 PPG.

March Madness best bets made at 12:42 p.m. ET 03/20/2025

A big-time coaching battle unfolds in the first round when John Calipari and the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks battle Bill Self and the No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks.

The pregame narrative: Calipari snuck into the dance in his first year with Arkansas and I think his team is poised to author an upset. Just to be safe, take the Razorbacks to cover an alt spread in this +325 parlay featuring a prop bet on Zeke Mayo.

Check out my Arkansas vs. Kansas SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 20.

Arkansas vs. Kansas predictions

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Parlay: Arkansas +7.5 | Under 149.5 points | Mayo 2+ threes (+325)

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Arkansas +7.5 (-165): Arkansas may be the lower seed — and the underdog — but I would argue it’s in better form than Kansas.

• The Razorbacks are 9-6 in their last 15 games, covering a +7.5 spread 13 times. That includes wins over Kentucky, Missouri and Mississippi State, as well as a four-point loss to Alabama.

• The Jayhawks are 8-7 in their last 15 games, covering a -7.5 spread just three times.

Kansas has lost six of its last seven Quad 1 games outright, beating the Arizona Wildcats by seven points in the outlier.

Arkansas, meanwhile, has covered a +7.5 spread in six of its last seven Quad 1 games (3-4 record).

NCAA SGP legs

Under 149.5 points (-175): I expect this to be a rock fight, which will hopefully work in Arkansas’ favour for covering and potentially winning this outright.

Check out how each team stacks up defensively, with stats provided by KenPom:

• Arkansas: 18th in defensive efficiency, 60th in opponent eFG%

• Kansas: 11th in defensive efficiency, 15th in opponent eFG%

Unders are 18-9 in games where Kansas is favoured and 10-1 in its non-conference games, according to Team Rankings.

Mayo 2+ threes (-278): This leg doubles our parlays value from +163 to +325 thanks to some negative correlation.

And I love to see that, considering Mayo has blown by this mark in three straight games:

• March 13 vs. Arizona: 5-for-12
• March 12 vs. UCF: 5-for-7
• March 8 vs. Arizona: 5-for-7

The San Diego State transfer has averaged at least 2.6 threes per game in each of the last three seasons and is a career 39.5% shooter from beyond the arc.

Mayo paces all Jayhawks in 3-point attempts (6.2/game) by a wide margin.

Arkansas vs. Kansas predictions made at 9:45 a.m. on 03/20/25

One ATS pick, one player prop and one over/under bet make up Thursday’s March Madness best bets.

The pregame narrative: In a battle of Bulldogs, back No. 8 Gonzaga to cover as favourites against No. 9 Georgia. I’m also backing Purdue’s Fletcher Loyer to clear his 3-point total and St. John’s to go under its game total.

Check out my March Madness best bets for NCAA college basketball action on March 20.

March Madness best bets

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Best bet: Gonzaga -6.5 (-109)

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Will the real Bulldogs please stand up?

The main argument for backing Georgia would be that it closed out conference play strong and carried a four-game winning streak into the SEC tournament.

But that doesn’t paper over an inconsistent season, or the fact that it had lost eight of 11 prior to going on that win streak, or its 4-11 record in Quad 1 games.

In my opinion, Mike White’s squad is severely outmatched by perennial powerhouse Gonzaga.

Mark Few has guided his Bulldogs to six straight Sweet 16s and has a stellar 43-24 record in the D-1 tournament — and this year’s squad is capable of going just as deep.

• Gonzaga owns a 25-8 record (5-5 in Quad 1 games).
  
• It is 9-1 in its last 10 games, covering a 6.5-point spread in every victory.
  
• The Bulldogs rank top 30 in KenPom’s average adjusted offensive efficiency, average adjusted defensive efficiency and effective FG%.

One big area where Gonzaga can separate from Georgia is turnover margin. Few’s bunch turns the ball over at the fifth-lowest rate (13.2%) while White’s team ranks 293rd (18.9%).

I expect an experienced Gonzaga lineup to make Georgia pay for those errors.

Ket stat: Gonzaga is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.

NCAA college basketball picks

Loyer 2+ threes (-134): Loyer is coming off a horrible 0-for-6 shooting performance against the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten tournament.

In that game, Loyer suffered a minor elbow injury on his non-shooting arm but Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter says he’s “good to go” on Thursday.

The guard was a big part of Purdue’s run to the national championship last year, shooting 47.4% from deep across six tournament games.

This year, Loyer is averaging 2.1 threes per game on 46.4% shooting. He had cleared this mark in nine of 10 games prior to playing Michigan.

Look for Loyer to do damage against the 13-seeded High Point Panthers.

Nebraska Omaha/St. John’s under 148 points (-113): Rick Pitino is back in the tournament and his 2-seeded Red Storm are threats to win it all.

St. John’s ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency and 19th in opponent EFG%. It’ll be tough for anyone to score on this bunch, let alone little Nebraska Omaha

A rout in this game is the likely outcome for the Red Storm, who open this tournament as an 18.5-point favourite on Thursday.

But everything about this match screams “rock fight” to me.

St. John’s ranks 338th in 3-point percentage and 295th in FT% — two ways to quickly accumulate points.

Unders are 19-15 in Red Storm games this year.

March Madness best bets made at 1:45 p.m. ET 03/19/2025

The last spot in the NCAA Round of 64 is up for grabs on Wednesday night when the Texas Longhorns play the Xavier Musketeers.

The pregame narrative: The Longhorns sputtered down the home stretch but I like them to cover as teased-up underdogs tonight. Prop bets on Texas’ Kadin Shedrick and Xaviers’ Ryan Conwell round out this +280 wager.

Check out my Xavier vs. Texas SGP predictions for their First Four matchup on March 19.

Xavier vs. Texas predictions

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Parlay: Texas +5.5 | Shedrick 6+ rebounds | Conwell 2+ threes (+280)

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Texas +5.5 (-162): There is a reason both teams are playing on Wednesday night rather than resting up for the Round of 64 — neither is that good.

Texas (19-15, 6-12 SEC) and Xavier (21-11, 13-7 Big East) had very different results in conference play but the SEC received 14 at-large bids and is widely regarded as the deepest conference in college basketball.

And funnily enough, it’s the Longhorns who have a much better record against Quad 1 opponents:

• Texas: 7-10 in Quad 1 games
• Xavier: 1-9 in Quad 1 games

Texas has won four of its last six Quad 1 games outright, covering a +5.5 spread in one of the outliers. The other game was a nine-point loss in the SEC tournament to the Tennessee Volunteers.

Xavier and Texas are evenly matched on offence and rank second and 21st, respectively, in D-1 experience, per KenPom.

This should be tightly contested but I’ll give the Longhorns a slight edge.

NCAA SGP legs

Shedrick 6+ rebounds (-129): One edge Texas has over Xavier is size.

The Longhorns are the 64th tallest team in D-1 while the Musketeers rank 166th. Enter Shedrick, who stands at 6-foot-11, two inches taller than any other starter in this game.

The 231-pound senior will be the largest man on the court and has been rebounding well lately. Check out Shedrick’s stats since posting a dud against the Florida Gators on Jan. 18

• 5+ rebounds in 13 of 16 games
• 6+ rebounds in 10 of 16 games

Shedrick had six boards his last time out against the Volunteers and is averaging 6.1 on the season.

Look for him to have an above-average showing against a Xavier team which ranks 316th in offensive rebounding rate.

Conwell 2+ threes (-445): I was strongly debating taking Conwell to hit three-plus 3s (-130) which would give us a juicy +475 payout.

Xavier’s point guard has been on fire from deep, shooting 24-for-41 (58.5%) over his last five games. He’s hit three-plus 3s in each game and just went 7-for-11 against the Marquette Golden Eagles.

There’s a good chance he goes nuclear again, but I’ll back him to hit a pair just to be safe.

Conwell has two-plus 3s in eight straight games and 26 of 32 on the season.

Xavier vs. Texas predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on 03/19/25