The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet for a potential series-deciding Game 4.
The pregame narrative: New York is one win away from advancing to the ALCS and has its ace Gerrit Cole pitching. That said, I’m backing Kansas City to cover an alternate run line alongside Juan Soto and Bobby Witt Jr. player props.
Check out my Yankees vs. Royals predictions for Game 4 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 10.
Yankees vs. Royals SGP predictions
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Parlay: Royals +2.5 + Soto over 0.5 runs + Witt Jr. over 0.5 hits (+300)
Royals +2.5 (-235): Cole didn’t look like the Cy Young-winning version of himself when he took the mound in Game 1 of this series.
He gave up seven hits and four runs over 5.0 innings while striking out just four batters. The Yankees still won that game, 6-5, after chasing Michael Wacha from the mound. But they didn’t come anywhere close to covering this number.
Kansas City turns to Wacha again and I think the Royals should keep this one close, too.
In a 107-plate-appearances sample size, Wacha has held this Yankees lineup to a .158 batting average and .243 slugging percentage.
He has a 2.48 ERA in his last five starts against the Yanks and that includes Game 1.
Kansas City has covered this number in all five of its playoff games and in 61 of its 81 regular-season home games.
SGP legs
Soto over 0.5 runs (-130): Backing Soto to score alongside Kansas City +2.5 gives this SGP a huge odds boost thanks to some negative correlation.
The Yankees’ No. 2 hitter has only scored once this series but has reached base safely in every game and has a .429 playoff OBP.
Soto’s 128 runs in the regular season were second to only Shohei Ohtani. He’s consistently putting himself in a position to score and has solid numbers in a small sample size against Wacha.
He is 3-for-7 against the righty with just one strikeout.
Witt over 0.5 hits (-305): Let’s hope this is as stress-free as it should be.
Witt is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He led the majors in hits (211) and batting average (.332) and ranked in the 88th percentile for K rate (15.0%).
He’s slumping in the playoffs and is only 2-for-9 against Cole, but I’ll bet on his wider body of work. Witt cleared this line in 128 of 161 games (79.5%) this year.
Picks made at 9:00 a.m. on 10/10/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.