The New York Yankees hold a 2-0 lead in the ALCS as the series shifts to Cleveland.
The pregame narrative: Instead of backing either side for Game 3, I’m targeting a trio of player props in a +410 SGP. Look for Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez and Aaron Judge to make noise at the plate.
Check out my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions for Game 3 of the ALCS on Oct. 17.
Yankees vs. Guardians SGP predictions
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Parlay: Kwan over 0.5 runs + Judge over 0.5 hits + Gimenez over 0.5 hits (+410)
Kwan over 0.5 runs (+130): This is my favourite prop bet of the game, so I’d be happy betting it straight up. And it gets our SGP off to a great start.
Kwan is crushing it this postseason, batting 13-for-29 (.448) and recording a hit in every game. He has a .500 on-base percentage with seven runs in seven games from the leadoff spot.
With those numbers alone, I’m already content to put my faith in Kwan. But his strong numbers against New York starter Clarke Schmidt drive the point home.
Kwan is 4-for-8 against Schmidt, and he singled and scored in their lone matchup this season.
Schmidt has had a fine season, but he’s allowed 12 runs over his past 19.0 innings as a starter. Kwan is red hot and should be the Guardians’ best bet to score.
SGP legs
Judge over 0.5 hits (-205): You have to think a weight lifted off Judge on Tuesday night when he sent a fly ball to centre field that carried over the wall for a two-run homer.
It’s not that Judge has to prove anything to anyone. He’s on his way to a second AL MVP award in three seasons. But Judge is still only batting .167 this October and .206 in his postseason career.
For as poor as Judge’s performance has been in the postseason, he’s been exceptional at all times when facing lefties. During the season, Judge posted a .311 BA and a 1.240 OPS against southpaws.
Though it wasn’t announced at the time of this writing, Cleveland lefty Matthew Boyd is expected to start. Judge is 2-for-6 with a home run and five walks against Boyd.
Gimenez over 0.5 hits (-180): He’s far from the biggest name on the Guardians’ roster (which already doesn’t have a lot of big names), but Gimenez is a perfect fit to round out this parlay.
The middle infielder is 5-for-10 with a double against Schmidt. Gimenez had a pair of singles in this exact matchup back in April.
Over the past three games, Gimenez is 3-for-9 with a pair of walks. That’s obviously not a huge sample, but it gives the indication that he’s seeing the ball well right now.
It’s also a plus that he’s facing a right-handed pitcher. From the left side, he batted .257 against RHPs and .239 against LHPs.
Picks made at 2:15 p.m. on 10/16/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.