We’ve waited all week, and it’s finally here. Game 1 of a star-studded World Series is coming up tonight from Dodger Stadium.
The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers turn to hometown right-hander Jack Flaherty, and the New York Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole. I’ve got props on both pitchers, along with Anthony Rizzo, in a +475 SGP.
Check out my Yankees vs. Dodgers same-game parlay predictions for Game 1 of the World Series on Oct. 25.
Yankees vs. Dodgers SGP predictions
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Parlay: Cole over 3.5 Ks + Flaherty over 14.5 outs + Rizzo over 0.5 hits + Yankees +2.5 (+475)
Cole over 3.5 Ks (-286): Cole is a star pitcher with plenty of playoff seasoning. Starting Game 1 of the World Series is always where the Yankees hoped he’d be when they signed him in the 2019 offseason.
This line is really not asking much of the reigning AL Cy Young winner, either.
Cole has four-plus Ks in 17 of 20 outings this season, including all three in October. In his playoff career, the right-hander has cashed this over in 19 of 20 starts.
Keep in mind the ample rest he’s had, too, given that Cole hasn’t pitched since Oct. 15. Since 2021, when pitching on six-plus days of rest, Cole has a 12.2 K/9 in 16 starts.
Oh, and Cole has stellar strikeout numbers against the Dodgers’ current lineup. In 180 plate appearances, he’s accrued 55 Ks (good for a 30.6% K rate).
SGP legs
Flaherty over 14.5 outs (-129): Flaherty is coming off a disastrous outing against the Mets, but tonight should be better. Why? Because he’s at home and he’s rested.
Since being traded to the Dodgers, the L.A. County native has worked at least five innings in all seven of his home starts (including two in the postseason).
As for the extended rest, this will be Flaherty’s first start since Oct. 18. In eight outings this year on at least six days of rest, Flaherty had a 2.45 ERA, a 0.881 WHIP and a 10.2 K/9.
The Dodgers are as eager to get to their bullpen as anybody, but Flaherty gives them the best shot at saving some arms for future games in the series.
Rizzo over 0.5 hits (-114): Rizzo’s performance in the ALCS was quite a pleasant surprise for the Yankees.
The veteran first baseman, who’s playing with two broken fingers on his right hand, was left off the ALDS roster because he wasn’t comfortable swinging his bat or squeezing his glove.
But he’s clearly feeling better, evidenced by a 6-for-14 (.429) stat line in the ALCS. Rizzo recorded a hit in all four of his starts against the Guardians.
Against Flaherty, Rizzo is 9-for-21 (.429) with three home runs, a double and five walks. The lefty-versus-righty platoon advantage typically doesn’t mean much for Rizzo, but that’s a slight plus, too.
Yankees +2.5 (-375): If you don’t want to add this leg, the three-leg wager with the picks above works out to +340 odds. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I like how much this heavily-juiced pick boosts the overall price.
New York has covered this line in every postseason game so far, as well as in 17 of Cole’s 20 starts this year.
In a matchup between the two best teams — on MLB’s biggest stage — I expect Cole and the Yankees to at least keep this game close.
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 10/25/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.