I’ve got three prop picks for the U.S. Open beginning on Thursday at Oakmont Country Club.
The latest: All signs point to this course setup being the most difficult we’ve seen in years. With that in mind, I’m fading former major champion Cameron Smith, who has fallen off the map since joining LIV Golf.
Check out my U.S. Open prop picks, also featuring Keegan Bradley and Ben Griffin.
U.S. Open prop picks
Full U.S. Open betting markets
Best bet: Smith to miss the cut (+100)
It feels like a lifetime ago that Smith was the No. 2 player in the world.
The fan-favourite Aussie was fresh off a three-win season, punctuated by winning the Open Championship at St Andrews.
But he’s been on a steady decline since joining LIV golf shortly thereafter.
| Masters | PGA | U.S. Open | Open | |
| 2023 | T34 | T9 | 4th | T33 |
| 2024 | T6 | T63 | T32 | MC |
| 2025 | MC | MC | — | — |
Smith has missed the cut at three straight majors and is struggling to perform on LIV, too. He only has one top-five finish in eight starts this season and has been hemorrhaging strokes on approach.
According to DataGolf’s query tool, Smith ranks 112th out of 125 qualified players in the field in strokes gained: approach over the last three months.
He also ranks 130th out of 135 players in driving accuracy.
Missing the fairway means contending with five-inch-thick rough. This will get ugly, quickly for Smith.
Key stat: Oakmont’s fairways measure 28 yards wide on average. That is the 10th narrowest out of any course played in the last 10 years, per DataGolf.
More U.S. Open predictions
Bradley top-30 finish (+110): Captain America at this year’s Ryder Cup should have a strong showing at his national open.
The 39-year-old veteran is playing some inspired golf lately. He has four straight top 30 finishes, including a T8 at the PGA Championship and a T7 at the Memorial Tournament in his last two starts.
Bradley ranks inside the top 30 in strokes gained off-the-tee (27th) and strokes gained: approach (14th) on the PGA Tour. That’ll play nearly anywhere.
Griffin over Pendrith 72-hole matchup (-125): Griffin and Taylor Pendrith are both having spectacular seasons, but I think the Canadian is in for a tough week.
Pendrith has at times struggled to keep his driver in play and is a very inconsistent putter and chipper. He made a mess in his Masters debut this year, shooting +8 and missing the cut by six strokes.
Oakmont’s green complexes are huge, but run off into bunkers and rough and require a strong short game.
Griffin has been on a rampage over his last three starts, with a T8 at the PGA Championship, a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and a runner-up at the Memorial Tournament.
He’s gaining strokes throughout the bag and has a much more reliable short game.
U.S. Open prop picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 06/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.