Alexander Volkanovski looks to reclaim the featherweight title at UFC 314 on Saturday.
The pre-fight narrative: Volkanovski enters this fight as a favourite over Diego Lopes, after Ilia Topuria moved to the lightweight division and vacated the belt. I like the Australian to win and am also expecting the co-main event between Paddy Pimblett and Michael Chandler to end in fireworks.
Check out my UFC 314 predictions for the April 12 event in Miami.
UFC 314 predictions overview
| UFC 314 predictions | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Volkanovski to win | -138 | Add to betslip |
| Pimblett/Chandler under 2.5 rounds | -163 | Add to betslip |
UFC 314 predictions made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 04/10/25.
Go to full UFC 314 betting markets.
UFC 314 predictions
Best Bet: Volkanovski to win (-138)
I’m eating the chalk with my UFC 314 picks, but that’s not a bad thing.
Volkanovski was once the best pound-for-pound fighter in the promotion, holding that title in 2022 and 2023.
He’s lost three of his last four bouts, though two came against Islam Makhachev at lightweight, and one against Topuria, who’s no longer competing in the division.
Outside of that, the Aussie boats a 26-1 record with his only other loss coming in 2013.
I expect Volkanovski to return to the winner’s circle against Lopez, who has won five fights in a row. Why? Volkanovski has incredible stamina and is the better technical fighter, and I expect him to wear down his opponent.
Lopes has never fought in the championship rounds in the top promotion, securing his last two wins by decision after 15 minutes.
The Aussie lands more strikes per minute (6.16 to 4.2), has a better striking defence (58% to 50%), lands more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.79 to 0.5) and has a better takedown defence (70.0% to 52.0%).
There are concerns about Volkanovski’s chin, considering Lopes has knockout power. That said, Volk is a seasoned veteran, and I trust him to control the pace on Saturday.
Key stat: Volkanovski is 26-2 as a featherweight.
Quick pick
Pimblett/Chandler under 2.5 rounds (-163): Pimblett has made a name for himself as a showman, picking up 16 of his 22 career wins via finish.
The Englishman is 6-0 since joining the UFC in 2021, with four wins coming in the first two rounds.
And now he’s going up against a man who lives and dies by the finish.
- Chandler has fought 32 times, and only nine of those fights have gone to decision.
- Seven of his last nine fights have ended before the 2:30 mark of Round 3.
- On a per-minute basis, Chandler lands (4.49) and absorbs (4.3) strikes at a high clip.
I like Pimblett to win this bout, and was debating backing him to win via KO at -115. But Chandler still has some lightning in his gloves, and it wouldn’t shock me if he caught Pibmlett with a bomb in the early going.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.