Two of the hottest teams in the NBA meet on Monday when the Denver Nuggets host the Portland Trail Blazers.
The pregame narrative: Portland has been rolling thanks to a strong defence while Denver is filling the basket with ease. Back the Blazers on an alt spread and take an alt under alongside prop bets on Nikola Jokic and Anfernee Simons at +390
Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 10.
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets predictions
Parlay: Trail Blazers +12.5 | Under 240.5 points | Jokic 2+ threes | Simons 15+ points (+380)
Trail Blazers +12.5 (-195): Styles make fights and I think Portland’s gameplan lends itself well to covering alternate spreads.
The Blazers are 10-2 in their last 12 games and have been shutting teams down on defence. Check out some of their stats during this run.
- First in defensive rating (105.3)
- First in opponent PPG (103.1)
- Third in opponent FG% (44.2)
- 27th in pace (96.95)
Portland might not have the skill to match Denver on the offensive end but that doesn’t matter. Chauncey Billups’ squad is slowing the game down and making life miserable for any and all opponents.
The Blazers have covered a +12.5 spread in five of its last six games against the Nuggets, beating them outright on Dec. 19.
SGP legs
Under 240.5 points (-360): The worry with this leg — and Portland +12.5 — is Denver’s recent form.
The Nuggets have the second-best offensive rating (121.7) to pair with the best true shooting percentage (61.3) in 2025. They’re 16-6 in that span with a 14-8 ATS record.
But they’re not covering -12.5 or going over 240 points with much frequency:
- Failed to cover -12.5 in 12/22 games (54.5%)
- Under 240.5 points in 15/22 games (68.2%)
The last meeting between these teams (which Portland won), went over this mark. But the previous six went under.
Jokic over 2+ threes (-141): Jokic is having a career year from deep, posting highs in makes (2.1) and attempts (4.5) per game.
His 46.2% three-point percentage is the third-best in basketball.
I’ll look toward Jokic on this market on most nights and love including it in SGPs even if it has juiced up odds, like on Monday.
The Serbian centre has cleared this total in five of his last seven games and hit four 3s against the Blazers earlier this year.
Simons 15+ points (-400): Finally, let’s add Simons to hit the 15-point milestone. This is a reasonable ask which brings our SGP up from +290 to +380.
The shooting guard is on a roll right now with 20-plus points in three straight games. He’s cleared this number in eight of his last 11 games and draws a premium matchup against the Nuggets.
Denver allows the most points per game to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.
Simons has cleared this mark in four straight against Denver, scoring 21-plus points each time.
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 02/10/2025.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.