The Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns ring in the first full college football slate of the season on Saturday in Columbus.
The pregame narrative: Ohio State and Texas are the No. 1 and 2 favourites to win the national championship, so it’s only fitting that this is a pick’em. The reigning champion Buckeyes turn to a new quarterback, Julian Sayin, who’s tasked with out-duelling Arch Manning in his first season as a starter.
Check out my Texas vs. Ohio State same-game parlay predictions for Aug. 30, featuring Jeremiah Smith.
Texas vs. Ohio State predictions
Parlay: Ohio State +7.5 | Smith over 80.5 receiving yards | Manning under 27.5 rushing yards (+310)
Ohio State +7.5 (-360): Both teams have had massive turnover, with 14 Buckeyes and 12 Longhorns selected in the 2025 NFL draft.
And both have new starting QBs, even though we’ve seen a bit of Manning.
I’m sure Manning will be a great player, but I want to pump the brakes on him being the no-question better QB in this matchup.
- Manning started a trio of games last year against teams with a combined 14-23 record, and only one played in a major conference (the 2-10 Mississippi State Bulldogs).
- Sayin has a five-star ranking from the class of 2024 and will be slotted into one of the deadliest offences with the best receiver in college football.
Home-field advantage should matter a ton in this matchup. The Buckeyes have a 14-1 record at the Shoe over the last two seasons, only losing to Michigan in 2024.
OSU went 14-2 last year, losing those games by a combined four points. It also handed Texas a 14-point loss in the Cotton Bowl.
I feel comfortable banking a touchdown with the home team.
Longhorns vs. Buckeyes SGP picks
Smith over 80.5 receiving yards (-121): Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Smith caught just one pass for three yards in last year’s Cotton Bowl against Texas.
But you can throw that result out the window.
The true freshman rebounded with 88 yards and a touchdown in the national championship game. He would have been a consensus top-five pick if eligible for the 2025 draft.
- Smith had the fourth-most receiving yards in Division I last season (1,315).
- He went over this total in 10 of 16 games.
- Smith averaged 17.3 yards/catch and 4.75 receptions per game.
The sure-handed 6-foot-3, 220-pound receiver can run the 40-yard dash in 4.35 seconds, making him a matchup nightmare for any opponent.
And with last year’s receptions leader Emeka Egbuka out of the door, I expect Sayin to feed Smith early and often.
Manning under 27.5 rushing yards (-118): Arch isn’t like his father, Eli, or uncle, Peyton. The kid can move, and I would lean toward the over on this line against most teams.
But Ohio State has a ravenous defence capable of bringing pressure, and sacks count for negative rushing yards in college.
The Buckeyes had the third-most sacks per game last year. They ranked first in pressure rate and yards per dropback allowed.
They did lose their top three sack leaders to the NFL. But Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is projected to be an immediate difference-maker in a deep EDGE position group.
After all, one of the reasons why OSU is a powerhouse is its ability to replenish the roster year after year.
In last year’s Cotton Bowl, Quinn Ewers was sacked four times and finished with -18 rushing yards. I expect Manning to be in the positive, but not by much.
Texas vs. Ohio State predictions made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 08/06/2025
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.