The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Florida Gators kick off the Elite Eight on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Florida was my pick to win it all, and I’ll stick with the Gators to advance in a tough matchup. Prop bets on Darrion Williams (Texas Tech) and Alijah Martin (Florida) round out this +310 wager.
Check out my Texas Tech vs. Florida SGP predictions for their Elite Eight matchup on March 29.
Texas Tech vs. Florida predictions
Parlay: Florida moneyline | Martin over 13.5 points | Williams over 22.5 points/rebounds (+310)
Florida moneyline (-315): I’m not just backing the Gators because my bracket’s life depends on it. Florida is a really good team with star power up and down its lineup.
- Led by first-team All-American Walter Clayton Jr., the Gators rank second in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
- They’ve won nine straight games while averaging 91.3 PPG. Eight of those contests were against Quad 1 opponents.
- Florida also ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The only other team in the nation to rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency is Duke.
Texas Tech is no pushover, but it hasn’t faced an opponent like Florida in this tournament.
The Red Raiders have beaten UNC Wilmington (No. 14), Drake (No. 11) and Arkansas (No. 10), with their Sweet 16 matchup against the Razorbacks requiring overtime.
Grant McCasland’s group is also 4-5 vs. Quad 1A teams this year, per Bart Torvik.
NCAA SGP legs
Martin over 13.5 points (-180): Containing Clayton will be priority No. 1 for the Red Raiders, and I’m hoping that will open up opportunities for Martin.
Florida’s fifth-year senior guard has been a steady contributor this season, averaging 14.6 PPG. And he’s been buzzing since the Gators started conference tournament play:
- 15.3 PPG
- 55.0% shooting
- 5-1 vs. this line
Martin has cleared this line in all three tournament games, most recently dropping 14 points in the Sweet 16 against the Maryland Terrapins (sixth-best defensive efficiency in D-1).
Williams over 22.5 points/rebounds (-106): Teams have thrown the kitchen sink at slowing down Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, and the Big 12 Player of the Year has been happy to defer to Williams.
Toppin led the Red Raiders in points and field goal attempts per game during the regular season, but Williams has taken centre stage in the tournament:
- Toppin stats: 19.0 PPG, 13.0 FGA/game
- Williams stats: 20.3 PPG, 19.7 FGA/game
Williams has been nowhere near as efficient as Toppin, but he’s letting it fly, which I love to see.
The 6-foot-6, 225-pound forward has also been a beast on the glass, hauling in 8.0 rebounds per game. He is 2-1 against this line in tournament play, finishing with 21 points/rebounds in the outlier.
If you’re looking to poke holes in Florida’s defence, you could say it fouls a lot (17.4/game, 221st in D-1).
Williams gets to the line often and is shooting an exceptional 84.1% from the stripe this year.
Texas Tech vs. Florida predictions made at 3:45 p.m. on 03/28/25
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.