The Houston Rockets host the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night in an all-Texas tussle.
The pregame narrative: San Antonio’s season is beginning to spiral, which is why I like Houston to earn a comfortable home win this evening. I’m also banking on solid performances from Alperen Sengun and De’Aaron Fox to round out this +400 SGP.
Check out my Spurs vs. Rockets same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 26.
Spurs vs. Rockets predictions
Parlay: Rockets -9.5 | Sengun 10+ rebounds | Fox 6+ assists (+400)
Rockets -9.5 (-110): San Antonio lost Victor Wembanyama to a season-ending injury last week, which also marks the end of any hope they’d had at sneaking into the play-in tournament.
After losing back-to-back games against the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday and Tuesday, tank mode has officially been activated.
- The Spurs are a dreadful 9-18 on the road, including a 1-7 ATS record as visitors this month.
- San Antonio is also 6-15 overall without Wemby.
Houston is in an ATS slump of its own, but after beating the Milwaukee Bucks last night I expect the Rockets to steamroll the Spurs.
When these teams last met in Houston back in November, the Rockets won by 27 points … and that was with Wemby on the court.
SGP legs
Sengun 10+ rebounds (-235): The greatest beneficiary in this matchup against the Wemby-less Spurs is probably Sengun. Without a 7-foot-4 bully in the paint, Sengun should feast as a rebounder.
- Sengun is averaging 10.5 rebounds this season.
- He has 10+ boards in 35 of 55 games (63.6%) — including 8 of his past 10.
- Dating back to Jan. 8, Sengun has 8+ rebounds in 19 of his past 20 games. The exception was a game that he exited after just three minutes of action.
With such a high floor, I expect Sengun to hit this rebounding milestone against most teams.
Without Wemby, the Spurs will primarily have Bismack Biyombo and Jeremy Sochan in the paint. Both players are 6-foot-8, which gives Sengun (6-foot-11) a size advantage.
Fox 6+ assists (-167): Wembanyama’s absence thrusts Fox into the spotlight as the Spurs’ No. 1 scoring option. But that doesn’t mean his passing prowess will fall by the wayside.
- In nine games with the Spurs, Fox has averaged 7.2 assists.
- He has 5+ assists in every game (and 6+ assists in 6 of 9).
Chris Paul’s presence in the San Antonio backcourt might dampen Fox’s ceiling as a passer, but he’s still going to tee up plenty of teammates every game.
In the four games since Wemby’s injury, Fox has averaged 14.8 potential assists, according to NBA.com’s player tracking data. That leads the Spurs and puts him in an excellent position to cash this milestone on a nightly basis.
Picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET 02/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.