The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros open up a huge three-game series at Daikin Park on Monday.
The pregame narrative: The Red Sox swept the Astros in Boston earlier this month and are favoured to win tonight’s opener behind Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet. Houston counters with Cristian Javier, who is making his first start of the season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Astros predictions, including props on Roman Anthony and Jeremy Pena.
Red Sox vs. Astros predictions
Parlay: Red Sox F5 +0.5 | Anthony over 1.5 bases | Pena over 0.5 hits (+350)
Red Sox F5 +0.5 (-265): It’s pretty easy to get behind Boston with Crochet pitching.
The southpaw leads the American League in ERA (2.24), is second in K/9 (11.1), and has won nine of his past 11 starts.
And Crochet’s advanced metrics indicate those numbers have been well earned:
- 90th-percentile xERA (2.95)
- 82nd-percentile xBA (.220)
- 79th-percentile whiff rate (29.6%)
- 73rd-percentile hard-hit rate (37.8%)
I’m not even asking the Red Sox to win this game, though. I’m simply banking on them to at least be tied through five innings, which is when Crochet will be duelling with Javier.
Javier was a great arm in 2022, but that was a long time ago. In his last full season, 2023, the righty had a 4.56 ERA in 162.0 IP.
MLB SGP legs
Anthony over 1.5 bases (+128): I’m not entirely sure what we’re going to get from Javier, but Anthony sure profiles like the type of player who can hit him hard.
- Boston’s rookie has a .289/.426/.456 slash line against RHPs this year.
- Left-handed hitters are slashing .273/.345/.470 against Javier since the start of 2023.
Javier’s command issues and Anthony’s plate discipline could be a concern for this wager. But I still like the plus-money value given how well the 21-year-old is swinging the bat lately.
Anthony is batting .356/.473/.489 in his last 12 games, going 8-4 against this line.
Pena over 0.5 hits (-200): Finally, I’m looking for Pena to record a hit.
For as good as Crochet has been, he’s allowed a decent amount of contact over his last five starts, ceding 32 hits in 33.0 IP.
Pena is batting an identical .315 against LHPs and RHPs this year, but Crochet has struggled a tad more against RHHs (.221 BA, .207 BA vs. LHHs).
The shortstop has a slight platoon advantage and has a hit in five of eight games since being activated from the injured list on Aug. 1.
Pena is also 3-for-5 lifetime against Crochet.
Red Sox vs. Astros predictions made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 08/11/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.