The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans close out a Christmas Day NFL doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: This game is shaping up to be an offensive showdown. That’s one reason why I’m taking the over on a teased-down total along with prop picks on C.J. Stroud and Derrick Henry in this +240 SGP.
Check out my Ravens vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions for Christmas Day.
Ravens vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Stroud over 224.5 passing yards + Henry anytime TD + Over 44.5 points (+240)
Stroud over 224.5 passing yards (-186): Stroud is at home on Wednesday where he has been a much better player.
This is a narrative that keeps getting pushed but it’s extremely valid.
- At home (2024): 65.8% completion, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 93.5 passer rating
- On the road (2024): 60.7% completion, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 82.1 passer rating
Stroud is 6-1 against this modest total at NRG Stadium this season.
The matchup is also on his side as the Ravens allow the second-most passing yards per game (254.9) while giving up the least rushing yards (83.1).
That could force the Texans to abandon the run game early on and let Stroud cook for the home fans on Christmas.
Other parlay picks
Henry anytime TD (-180): This leg would’ve felt automatic a few weeks ago but it also carried more juice.
Henry has surprisingly been scoreless for the past four games after tallying 15 touchdowns in the first 11 contests.
That doesn’t mean he’s slowed down, however.
In those four games, Henry averaged 20.3 carries and 112.8 rushing yards. That includes seven attempts in the red zone with a 6.1 yards per carry, per Fantasy Pros.
The Ravens simply haven’t been relying on him near the goal line but how can anyone expect that to continue?
Henry’s been a beast all season. He averages 5.9 YPC and it’s only a matter of time before he finds the end zone again.
Over 44.5 points (-136): This total is too low for a Baltimore game, even on a short week.
The Ravens have gone over this number in all but two games this season and their offence is a big reason why.
- 433.7 total yards per game (1st)
- 30.1 points per game (3rd)
- 48.2% third-down conversion rate (3rd)
To add even more context, the Ravens have scored 34-plus points seven times this season.
On the flip side, their defence can get torched in the air, as I mentioned before. So that leaves the door open for the Texans’ offence to be productive at home.
In my opinion, the standard over is a great solo bet for this game, but I will tease it down for the extra cushion — just in case.
Picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 12/24/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.