Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are on the road to face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a Grade-A matchup on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Jackson hasn’t found the end zone often this year, but I like his anytime touchdown price in a game with a high scoring upside. I’m also backing a pair of tight ends — Mark Andrews and Will Dissly — to clear their respective yardage totals.
Check out my Ravens vs. Chargers prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 25.
Ravens vs. Chargers prop picks
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Best Bet: Andrews over 29.5 receiving yards (-127)
A yardage total like this would’ve seemed mysteriously low for Andrews in any of his previous five seasons.
- The three-time Pro Bowler averaged 50+ yards per game over each of those years.
- All told from 2019-23, Andrews averaged 4.9 catches and 60.6 yards.
- This year, Andrews is only averaging 2.9 catches and 34.5 yards through 11 games.
I like this as a buy-low spot for Andrews, especially because his season-long dips are a bit misleading. What it really comes down to is some puzzlingly low usage from Weeks 1-4.
Andrews only had 65 total yards in that four-game span. He was held without a catch in Weeks 3-4 while seeing just two total targets.
From Week 5 onward, Andrews has looked more like his old self: 3.7 catches/game, 44.9 yards/game and a 21.0% target rate per route.
Isaiah Likely isn’t going anywhere, but Andrews no longer appears to be ceding all the tight end work to his younger teammate. Andrews has had a higher snap share than Likely in each of the Ravens’ past four games.
Andrews will only need a couple of catches to at least have a shot at this over. He’s caught multiple passes in seven straight games and has a high enough floor for me to find some value here.
Key stat: Andrews has accrued 30-plus receiving yards in five of his past seven games (and he has 20-plus receiving yards in all seven).
Quick pick
Dissly over 39.5 receiving yards (-134): Dissly’s involvement in the Chargers’ offence exploded after their Week 5 bye, and now he’s drawing a great matchup. I want in.
Check out Dissly’s per-game averages before and after L.A.’s bye week:
- Pre-bye (four games): 2.5 targets, 2.3 catches, 21.3 yards, 11.1% target share
- Post-bye (six games): 6.3 targets, 4.7 catches, 44.5 yards, 21.7% target share
An overwhelming increase in route involvement has directly correlated to across-the-board statistical improvements. Go figure.
For context, Dissly ran 27 total routes in Weeks 1-4 and has averaged 22.5 routes/game since the bye. A target share about 20.0% and above puts him in the same realm as A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin.
Now, Dissly faces a Ravens squad that allows the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (66.9). This should be a smash play.
Jackson anytime TD (+165): Jackson only has two rushing touchdowns this year, but they both came in the past four weeks. In a game with a sky-high over/under (50.5 points), he should be in a position to score.
Typically, when the Ravens are near the goal line, they just give the ball to Derrick Henry. And who am I to fault them for that?
But the Chargers have only allowed three rushing TDs all year (least in the NFL), so the Ravens might have to be a bit more creative to get the ball across the line.
Also, Jackson’s rushing volume has still been solid this season despite a lack of scores. He has 40-plus rush yards in nine of 11 games.
The goal line carries have been lacking, but Jackson does have 14 red zone carries so far. His opportunities are more fruitful than it seems.
Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET 11/25/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.