After a loss in Cleveland last night, the Toronto Raptors are in Detroit on Monday to face the Pistons at Little Caesars Arena.
The pregame narrative: Detroit won’t have Cade Cunningham tonight, which is part of the reason I like Toronto on an alt spread. This +400 SGP also features prop picks on Jaden Ivey, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl.
Check out my Raptors vs. Pistons same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 25.
Raptors vs. Pistons predictions
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Parlay: Raptors +10.5 + Ivey over 18.5 points + Barnes over 16.5 points + Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (+400)
Raptors +10.5 (-278): The Raptors are at a rest disadvantage tonight on a back-to-back, but that doesn’t worry me too much.
Toronto is 3-1 ATS on zero rest this season, per Team Rankings, and it’s up against a team that isn’t accustomed to playing the role of a favourite.
Detroit is just 5-10 ATS as a favourite since the start of last season. Last week, the Pistons went 0-3 ATS, which included a pair of straight up losses as favourites.
On Nov. 15, Toronto lost by four points as a home underdog against Detroit. I don’t expect a vastly different result tonight — especially without Cunningham, Detroit’s top scorer and passer.
SGP legs
Ivey over 18.5 points (-177): Cunningham’s absence means someone else will have to step up for Detroit. Ivey’s role is growing in the Motor City anyhow, so I think he has a good chance for an uptick in scoring volume.
In Year 3, Ivey has enjoyed growth in overall scoring (18.1 PPG) and 3-point effectiveness (36.6%). He’s gone over 18.5 points in eight of 17 games, landing on exactly 18 points two other times.
And his numbers with/without Cunningham since the start of last season are notable.
- With Cunningham: 15.0 PPG, 12.1 FGA, 19+ points in 18/73 games
- Without Cunningham: 18.9 PPG, 16.2 FGA, 19+ points in 10/21 games
Barnes over 16.5 points (-205): Barnes is only two games removed from an 11-game injury absence, but he managed to cash this prop in both games since his return.
He’s now hit this over in five of six games on the year. After averaging 19.9 PPG last season, that shouldn’t really surprise anyone.
Barnes is doing a nice job of getting to the free-throw line, but he’s struggling to score efficiently from the field. To me, that just means there’s potential for him to score at an even greater clip (unless you expect his 22.7% 3-point shooting to hold up).
Last year, Barnes scored 22 points and added nine rebounds when the Raptors played in Detroit.
Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-134): This is absolutely playable as a single. Poeltl is a vacuum on the glass.
The eighth-year centre is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game and has cashed this bet in 10 of 17 matchups this season.
Poeltl matched a season-high with 19 rebounds last time out, marking his fifth straight game with 12 or more.
Oh, and he had 18 boards against the Pistons earlier this month.
Detroit and Toronto both rank in the top five in rebounding rate this season, so this isn’t a pushover matchup. But Poeltl has dominated against Detroit once before and I don’t see why it’d be different this time.
Picks made at 11:39 a.m. on 11/25/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.