For the third and final time this season, the Toronto Raptors face the Indiana Pacers.
The pregame narrative: Wednesday’s matchup comes on a back-to-back for the Raptors, who’ve beaten the Pacers twice already as underdogs this season. In my +285 SGP, I’m backing Toronto on an alt spread to go with prop milestones for Gradey Dick and Myles Turner.
Check out my Raptors vs. Pacers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 26.
Raptors vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Raptors +12.5 | Dick over 1.5 threes | Turner over 16.5 points (+375)
Raptors +12.5 (-154): Many times over this season, my colleagues and I have written about the Raptors’ ability to lose a bunch of games while remaining competitive. And that is still holding true.
- Toronto is 18-40 SU but 34-23-1 ATS.
- The Raptors’ 32-20-1 ATS (61.5%) record as underdogs is the 2nd-best hit rate in the NBA among teams with five or more applicable games.
Since Jan. 1, Toronto has covered a +12.5 spread in 19 of 25 games. The team is 17th in net rating in that span, which is far better than you’d probably expect from a lottery-bound bunch.
Also, the Raptors are 2-0 SU against the Pacers this year, winning both games —as underdogs — by a double-digit margin.
Indiana is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10.
SGP legs
Dick over 1.5 threes (-167): Simply put, Dick hits this milestone more often than not. And he’s been particularly reliable in recent games.
Here are Dick’s full-season numbers from 3-point range:
- 2.1 threes per game
- 6.1 attempts per game
- 34.9 3PT%
- 2+ threes in 35 of 51 games
In his past 11 games, the attempts have dipped (4.7/game), but the hit rate has held up. Dick has cashed this bet in eight of those 11 matchups.
In three career games against Indiana, the second-year guard is 8-of-14 from deep and has hit this milestone twice.
The Pacers are a perfectly average team in terms of 3-point defence, yielding the 15th-lowest 3PT% (35.8). So this isn’t a matchup to shy away from.
Turner over 16.5 points (-130): Why has Turner upped his 3-point volume in recent games? I’m not sure, but I know it’s a boon for his scoring potential.
- On the season, Turner has averaged 5.4 attempted 3s per game, which is sixth among NBA centres.
- In 11 games since Jan. 16, though, that average is up to 6.9 attempts. And he’s fired eight-plus 3s in three straight games.
Turner has established a solid scoring floor in the past month and a half, scoring 14-plus points in 11 of 13 games. One of the outliers was a game in which he got hurt and exited after six minutes.
The 6-foot-11 centre could be in for a greater scoring workload if teammate Tyrese Haliburton (questionable) sits out. On Toronto’s side, centre Jakob Poeltl, who has missed eight games with a hip injury, is also questionable.
But regardless of what the injury report says, Turner’s shot chart and recent production have been solid enough for me to want in on this point total, which he has cleared in three straight games.
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET 02/26/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.