The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies settle their rubber match at Wrigley Field on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia’s offence erupted for 10 runs yesterday, and it now has an opportunity to get after a struggling Jameson Taillon. I’m fading Chicago’s righty and backing Kyle Tucker to collect multiple bases.
Check out my Phillies vs. Cubs prop bets for Sunday Night Baseball on April 27.
Phillies vs. Cubs prop bets
Best Bet: Taillon under 17.5 outs (+100)
I’m struggling to understand why this line is so high.
Taillon has posted a 4.73 ERA through five starts and doesn’t exactly have the reputation of being a workhorse. He’s only crested 90 pitches once this season and twice in his last 10 starts dating back to the tail-end of 2024.
That means the righty has to be hyper-efficient to clear this line, which hasn’t happened so far.
Taillon has fallen short of this line in back-to-back outings, and in three of five on the season. In the outliers, he logged exactly 6.0 innings (18 outs).
The underlying numbers suggest he hasn’t been unlucky. Taillon’s 4.47 xERA and .270 xBA rank in the 35th and 29th percentile, respectively, among all pitchers according to Baseball Savant.
Philadelphia ranks 12th in runs per game (4.48) and has done damage against Taillon in the past. This seems like a good spot for the team’s bats to stay hot.
Key stat: The Phillies’ current lineup is batting .290 against Taillon in 100 combined at-bats.
Best MLB picks
Tucker over 1.5 bases (+125): Tucker has struggled this series, logging just one hit (a single) in eight at-bats. But his season-long sample is spectacular, and I’m banking on the slugger returning to form tonight.
- Tucker has posted a .300/.409/.600 slashline through 28 games with the Cubs.
- He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA (.310), xSLG (.629) and K rate (13.6%).
- His 66 total bases rank third in MLB, and he has cashed this bet in 53.6% of games, per Team Rankings.
The left-batting Tucker has done his best work against righties (.316 BA), and he’ll have a platoon advantage against a struggling Aaron Nola this evening.
Philadelphia’s righty has gotten rocked through five starts, posting a 6.43 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP.
Tucker is 3-for-10 lifetime against Nola, with a double and two home runs.
Phillies vs. Cubs prop picks made at 1:04 p.m. ET on 04/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.