Shohei Ohtani makes his long-awaited return as a pitcher on Monday when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres.
The pregame narrative: Ohtani hasn’t thrown since the 2023 season and is expected to be used sparingly as an opener tonight. Pitching opposite Ohtani is San Diego stud Dylan Cease, who has dominated L.A.’s lineup in the past.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers prop bets for June 16, featuring Cease and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Padres vs. Dodgers prop bets
Best Bet: Cease over 6.5 strikeouts (+108)
All eyes will be on Ohtani tonight — but this Cease guy is pretty good, too.
San Diego’s ace is one of the best swing-and-miss arms in baseball, posting a 70th-percentile K rate or better in each of the last five seasons, according to Baseball Savant.
This year, he owns a 95th-percentile whiff rate (34.7%) and an 88th-percentile K rate (29.9%).
Cease has gotten touched up at points this year, surrendering a high volume of hard contact, which leads to shorter outings. But he’s buckled down since the beginning of May and was spotless against the Dodgers last week.
- Cease has a 3.33 ERA across eight starts since May 1.
- In that span, the righty has logged six-plus Ks seven times and is 5-3 vs. this line.
- He most recently struck out 11 Dodgers in 7.0 shutout innings on June 10.
That was Cease’s best outing of the season, by far, but torching the Dodgers is nothing new for the 29-year-old.
Key Stat: Cease has a 32.7% K rate against this Dodgers lineup in 150 combined plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Tatis over 1.5 bases (+104): In all likelihood, Tatis will only see Ohtani once this evening. If he can get after him in his first at-bat of the night, great. If not, I still like our chances.
Tatis is coming off a monster series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, going 8-for-13 at the plate with three doubles.
The superstar outfielder has proven to be a streaky hitter at times, but when he gets hot, he gets hot. Tatis posted a .323/.390/.591 slash line in April with seven home runs, and I’m hoping the weekend’s success will roll over into tonight.
L.A.’s bullpen hasn’t been great this season, posting a 4.08 ERA and giving up 40 home runs (second-most in MLB).
This seems like a good spot to back a surging hitter.
Padres vs. Dodgers prop bets made at 11:27 a.m. ET on 06/16/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.