There’s been no shortage of offence so far in the season series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
The pregame narrative: L.A. is 4-1 vs. San Diego this season, putting its league-best offence to good use. The Dodgers have scored 14 runs so far through two games in this week’s series. With a lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and more, that’s hardly a surprise.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, including Ohtani and Gavin Sheets.
Padres vs. Dodgers predictions
Parlay: Over 8.5 runs | Ohtani over 1.5 total bases | Sheets over 0.5 hits (+290)
Over 8.5 runs (-167): Tonight’s pitching matchup is about as anonymous as it gets for a marquee series like this.
San Diego’s Stephen Kolek is a 28-year-old with fewer than 100 career MLB innings. L.A.’s Emmet Sheehan, meanwhile, is making just his 14th big-league appearance (and first since 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery).
I think the lineups should absolutely have the upper hand.
- The Dodgers have the highest overs rate in MLB (44-29-1, 60.3%), per Team Rankings.
- L.A. leads the majors in runs per game (5.58) and OPS (.801).
- In five matchups this month, the Dodgers and Padres are averaging 11.4 total runs and are 4-1 vs. this total.
Given that tonight marks the sixth head-to-head meeting between these teams in just 10 days, both lineups should be fully familiar with the bullpens they’ll face, too.
MLB SGP legs
Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-132): Ohtani went hitless last night, but he’s been routinely crushing the ball and is fully deserving of this price.
- Ohtani leads the NL in home runs (25), SLG (.634) and total bases (182).
- He’s averaging 2.53 total bases per game.
Prior to last night’s dud, Ohtani had gone over 1.5 bases in 14 of 21 games. He posted a .313/.411/.675 slash line in that span.
Left-hitting players have a .488 SLG against Kolek this year, and Ohtani is the best left-hitting player in the world.
Sheets over 0.5 hits (-137): Having escaped the doldrums of the Chicago White Sox organization, Sheets is having himself a solid year.
The first-year Padre is batting a career-high .268 while posting a 53.8% hard-hit rate (94th percentile, per Baseball Savant).
He has cashed this bet in 35 of 59 starts (59.3%) and enters tonight on a six-game hitting streak.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from Sheehan, but lefty hitters did have a solid .742 OPS against him in his 2023 rookie season.
Padres vs. Dodgers predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.