The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers meet for the second time this week, with the matchup shifting to Fiserv Forum.
The pregame narrative: Indiana won at home on Tuesday thanks to some Tyrese Haliburton heroics. I expect the point guard to step up again, but in a loss. Taking the over on a teased-down Damian Lillard 3s line rounds out this +350 SGP.
Check out my Pacers vs. Bucks SGP predictions for March 15.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Bucks ML | Lillard 3+ threes | Haliburton 20+ points (+350)
Bucks moneyline (-220): Milwaukee snapped a three-game losing skid with a convincing win over Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday.
LeBron James wasn’t playing but I’m hoping the Bucks can build off a strong offensive performance and keep things rolling.
I also don’t want to put too much stock into those three losses, considering one was against the juggernaut Cleveland Cavaliers and the other two came by a combined three points.
This is how Milwaukee has performed following the all-star break.
- 8-4 record
- +6.4 net rating (6th in the NBA)
- 109.1 defensive rating (2nd)
The Bucks will want to avenge their fluke loss from Tuesday, and they handled the Pacers twice earlier this season, winning those matchups by a combined 20 points.
NBA SGP legs
Lillard 3+ threes (-215): Lillard is in a bit of a shooting slump right now but I say he snaps out of it tonight.
The point guard has gone over 2.5 threes in six of his last seven games vs. the Pacers, averaging 4.0 makes on 38.9% shooting.
The outlier was on Tuesday, when he shot 2-for-7 from deep.
Lillard averages 9.1 attempted 3s per night, and I’m banking on him taking more than seven 3s this evening. And he should, considering both teams rank top 10 in pace, which NBA.com categorizes as possessions per game.
On the season, Lillard is 35-19 against this line (64.8%).
Haliburton 20+ points (-103): Fingers crossed we don’t get one of those weird games where Haliburton chooses to take five shots.
That’s always a risk with Indiana’s point guard but given tonight’s matchup, I doubt it happens.
Lillard can fill the bucket with the best of them, though his lacklustre defence has made Milwaukee a prime target for opposing point guards.
Check out how the Bucks’ defence ranks against that position, per Fantasy Pros:
- 2023-24 season: 3rd-most PPG (25.89)
- 2024-25 season: Most PPG (26.17)
- Last 30 days: 4th-most PPG (26.59)
Haliburton only dropped 14 points against the Bucks on Tuesday — and four of those came on a Hail Mary play as time was expiring — but it was also his first game back from a three-game injury absence.
He had cleared this milestone in five of eight games prior while averaging 23.4 PPG. In that span, he scored no fewer than 17 points.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 03/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.