It’s a receivers-only slate of NFL prop bets for me this week, as I’m targeting A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua and Darius Slayton.
The pregame narrative: Nacua came back strong from a knee injury last week, and I think he’s well-positioned to shine again. Brown has been a star every time he’s stepped on the field this season, and he’ll see a Grade-A matchup at home this Sunday.
Check out the best NFL Week 9 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 9 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 9 betting markets.
Best bet: Nacua over 67.5 receiving yards (-114)
Much to the surprise of NFL fans — and to the chagrin of the Minnesota Vikings — Puka Nacua returned from injured reserve last week and immediately balled out.
Nacua caught seven passes for 106 yards last Thursday. It was his first action since Week 1, when he exited in the second quarter with a knee injury.
Putting up 100-plus yards after missing six weeks of action is impressive. And it’s even more impressive given that Nacua was only on the field for 58.8% of offensive snaps.
And even in his reduced snap count, Nacua paced the Rams with nine targets. Move over, Cooper Kupp … this offence belongs to somebody else now.
Given that the Rams played on Thursday Night Football in Week 8, Nacua has more time to recover than usual for this Sunday’s game. He’s not on the injury report and should be back to full go.
Based on his stellar showing last week, and the fact he averaged 87.4 receiving yards per game as a rookie, this looks like a smash play.
Key stat: Nacua has 70-plus receiving yards in 13 of 20 career games, including both matchups against the Seattle Seahawks last year.
Quick picks
Slayton over 34.5 receiving yards (-112): The New York Giants have two of the three highest-targeted receivers in the NFL … and Slayton isn’t one of them.
Slayton is involved in enough downfield action for me to believe he can clear this line, though. He’s seen 90-plus air yards in four of his past five games, per Player Profiler.
Unsurprisingly, Slayton cashed the over on this yardage total in all four of those high-air-yard outings. He’s coming off a 108-yard effort against the Pittsburgh Steelers, with four catches on seven targets.
Up next are the Washington Commanders, whose No. 3 scoring offence should push the Giants to attack through the air. Defensively, Washington ranks 21st in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com.
Brown over 75.5 receiving yards (-114): The Philadelphia Eagles have the highest rushing rate in the NFL (53.2%), but that hasn’t kept Brown from feasting.
Brown has 80-plus receiving yards in all four games this year, averaging 102.0 receiving yards per game. Dating back to 2022, the three-time Pro Bowler is averaging 88.4 YPG.
With that in mind, I wouldn’t mind backing Brown at this number against anyone. But I’m especially interested in this matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in defensive EPA per dropback, and they’ve allowed the second-most receiving yards per game.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 10/31/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.