Two receivers and a quarterback have my attention for this week’s NFL TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Anthony Richardson only has one touchdown this year, but his rushing volume is encouraging and I think he gets back into the end zone this Sunday. I’m also interested in the opportunities that both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Xavier Worthy have earned.
Check out the best NFL Week 8 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 8 TD picks
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Best bet: Richardson anytime TD (+150)
Jonathan Taylor (ankle) appears likely to return from injury after logging a full practice on Thursday. Believe it or not, I view that as a plus for Richardson’s chances to score.
Taylor is the best offensive weapon the Colts have, so his presence should help them march down the field. And sure, he should get some red zone touches, but he can also be used in read options as a decoy.
Richardson has dealt with injury issues of his own this year, but last week was an encouraging indicator of where he’s at right now.
After missing a pair of games with an oblique injury, Richardson rushed 14 times for 56 yards against the Dolphins. That included a 22-yard scamper finished off by a truck stick over a smaller Dolphins defender.
Richardson’s lone rushing TD came against the Texans in Week 1, and that’s who he’ll see Sunday. The second-year QB has more red zone rushes (11) than pass attempts (nine) so far.
It’s possible that Taylor is on a snap count, which would make it even more likely that Richardson calls his own number in goal-to-go situations.
But either way, coming off a high-volume running week, I like Richardson to get back in the end zone.
Key stat: Richardson has at least one rush attempt inside the 10-yard line in four of five games (seven total carries inside the 10), per Rotowire.
Quick picks
Worthy anytime TD (+175): The Raiders rank 29th in scoring defence, allowing 26.1 PPG. I know things have been weird for the Chiefs’ offence at times this year, but they should put up a decent sum of points on Sunday.
And that’s where Worthy (hopefully) comes in. From a value standpoint, he’s my favourite pick among KC’s offensive weapons.
Why? He’s had multiple red zone looks in three of his past four games and leads the team with four total touchdowns.
Those aren’t huge numbers but Worthy is still in the first half of his rookie NFL season. It takes time to adjust to the highest level in the sport, and he’s already earned several opportunities.
DeAndre Hopkins (+175 to score) should be a red zone threat for the Chiefs, but probably less so in his debut. And Travis Kelce (+108) still hasn’t found the end zone.
Worthy has a better price than both of those guys, so I like this spot for him.
St. Brown anytime TD (-120): This isn’t an exciting price to pay, but St. Brown is worth it this week.
For as much as the Lions love to run the football — they rank fifth in run play percentage (50.0%) — St. Brown always gets plenty of quality targets. He has nine red zone targets through six games.
St. Brown wasn’t targeted in the red zone last week, but he still managed to score… for a fourth week in a row.
The Titans’ run defence is among the best in the NFL, ranking fourth in EPA and success rate. It’d make sense for St. Brown to be featured in the red zone once again this week.
Picks made at 4:10 p.m. ET on 10/25/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.