The New England Patriots headline my NFL Week 7 underdog picks.
The pregame narrative: Favourites went 10-3-1 ATS last week but I’m calling for a pair of upsets, including the Patriots downing the Jacksonville Jaguars across the pond. Also, back the Cleveland Browns in a divisional matchup.
Check out how these NFL Week 7 underdog picks.
NFL Week 7 underdog picks
Go to full NFL Week 7 betting markets.
Best bet: Patriots moneyline (+205)
The Patriots got stomped in Drake Maye’s NFL debut but he honestly played pretty well.
The No. 3 overall pick completed 20-of-33 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns, while also throwing two interceptions.
That was against a Houston Texans defence that allows the third-fewest yards per game and has the eighth-best defensive EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.
Now, the Patriots travel to London, England to take on an awful Jaguars team. Jacksonville ranks 31st in scoring and total defence, and it ranks last in defensive EPA per play.
Fellow rookie Caleb Williams just stunted all over the Jags, completing 79.3% of his passes for four touchdowns to one interception. The Chicago Bears won that game, 35-16.
Trevor Lawrence looks lost and Doug Pederson seems to be operating on borrowed time. The Jaguars have won just two of their last 12 games. I don’t care how bad New England is, you can’t tell me Jacksonville is 5.5 points better, as this spread would suggest.
Key stat: The Jaguars have the second-worst point differential (-65) in the NFL.
Week 7 upset predictions
Browns moneyline (+210): I really don’t have anything nice to say about the Browns or Deshaun Watson but this feels like a spot where they can pick up a win.
The Cincinnati Bengals narrowly beat the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football to improve to 2-4 and climb out of the AFC North basement. They’re not a good team either. Cincinnati’s defence has allowed the seventh-most points per game and ranks 30th in defensive EPA per rush.
Keeping the ball on the ground and out of Watson’s hands should be Kevin Stefanski’s top priority. Luckily, he’ll have Nick Chubb back in the mix.
Chubb is one of the game’s top talents when healthy. He should make an immediate impact in an offence that has failed to score 20 points in any game this year.
Joe Burrow is 1-5 against Cleveland and this is the worst defence he’s had as a pro. I’m fine backing a bad Browns team as a home dog against a bad Bengals team.
Picks made at 1:29 p.m. ET on 10/15/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.