I’m backing two home underdogs in the NFL for Week 16.
The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs may be without Patrick Mahomes this weekend but I think there’s value in taking the home side. On Sunday, give me the Seattle Seahawks to upset the Minnesota Vikings.
Check out these NFL Week 16 upset picks.
NFL Week 16 upset picks
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Best bet: Chiefs moneyline (+110)
No Mahomes should be more concerning, but honestly, I’m not all that worried.
The Chiefs used to live and die at the hands of their quarterback but the defence has slowly become a top unit in the NFL.
Kansas City’s defence allows:
- 320.5 yards/game (fourth-fewest)
- 91.8 rushing yards/game (third-fewest)
- 18.5 points/game (fourth-fewest)
And technically the 13-1 Chiefs still have more to play for than the Texans do. Houston has locked up the AFC South but is too far out of the picture in terms of winning the AFC.
Kansas City can still easily lose the top spot to the 11-3 Buffalo Bills as the Bills beat them and hold the head-to-head advantage.
That makes me believe Mahomes would make his best effort to play if given the go-ahead.
Regardless, the Chiefs’ defence is good enough to keep any game close. They’ve only given up 30-plus points once this season back in the Week 11 loss to Buffalo.
The Bills look elite behind Josh Allen right now so there’s little shame in that defeat.
Houston, on the other hand, is 4-3 on the road with all their wins coming against teams below .500.
Key stat: Kansas City has held three straight opponents below 20 points.
Week 16 upset predictions
Seahawks moneyline (+180): Seattle is a strange team that is 3-5 at home and 5-1 on the road but I believe this deserves a deeper dive.
The Seahawks played just one game at home since their Week 10 bye and got an important win over the Arizona Cardinals while holding them to six total points.
That is a much more positive result than their 2-5 early-season home record before the bye.
Seattle is 4-1 in the last five weeks, only allowing 20-plus points once in the 30-13 defeat to the Green Bay Packers this past Sunday.
Minnesota is 5-1 on the road but has wins over the Bears, Titans, Jaguars and Giants. The Packers are the only good team the Vikings have beaten away from home so I think that record is overrated.
They also lost to Seattle’s division rival, the Los Angeles Rams, 30-20, on the road in Week 8.
Picks made at 3:44 p.m. ET on 12/16/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.