I’m fading Kirk Cousins on Sunday and am backing a pair of offensive weapons in my NFL Week 14 prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Cousins is struggling mightily right now, and I don’t expect his former team (the Minnesota Vikings) to make life easy. Elsewhere, I like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and De’Von Achane to both stay productive in the receiving game.
Check out the best NFL Week 14 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 14 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 14 betting markets.
Best bet: Smith-Njigba over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
Smith-Njigba has enjoyed quite a sophomore surge, and he’s been at his best over the past month and change.
Check out JSN’s productivity since Week 8:
- 8.4 targets/game
- 102.0 yards/game
- Cashed this bet in 5/5 games
This stellar stretch includes a 77-yard performance two weeks ago against the Arizona Cardinals. Smith-Njigba caught six of seven targets in that game.
With another date against the Cardinals due up, I think JSN can keep the good times rolling.
Smith-Njigba isn’t the Seattle Seahawks’ WR1, but he’s seen plenty of target volume in the past three weeks alongside DK Metcalf. Over the past three weeks, JSN out-targeted Metcalf, 22-19.
Key stat: Smith-Njigba has six-plus catches in four of his past five games, commanding a 28.2% target share in that span.
Quick picks
Cousins under 244.5 passing yards (-115): I’m a sucker for a revenge game narrative, but I just can’t put my faith in Cousins right now.
Last week, Cousins tossed four wobbly interceptions in a low-scoring loss against the Chargers. Atlanta has now lost three games in a row, and Cousins has a 0:6 TD-to-INT ratio in that span.
A mid-game benching in Minnesota — in favour of Michael Penix Jr. — isn’t out of the question. That’s part of why I like the under.
Additionally, Cousins has hit this under in eight of 12 games. He’s averaging 254.3 yards/game, but that’s only because of a 509-yard anomaly from two months ago — which might as well be two years ago.
Achane over 29.5 receiving yards (-110): Achane couldn’t get it going on the ground last week, turning seven carries into just 14 yards. But he’s such an asset that the Dolphins made sure to keep him involved as a receiver.
On a season-high nine targets, Achane caught eight passes for 56 yards. He continues to see heavy usage with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback.
In eight games alongside Tagovailoa, Achane is averaging 6.0 receptions and 47.5 yards. He’s cleared this yardage total in six of those games.
Picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET on 12/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.