The Arkansas Razorbacks are on the March Madness bubble, and I’m backing them to win tonight as part of a +326 parlay.
The pregame narrative: Elsewhere in the world of college hoops, look for the No. 25 BYU Cougars to earn a road win and for the Utah State Aggies vs. Boise State Broncos matchup to clear an alt total.
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Parlay: Arkansas ML | BYU ML | Utah St./Boise St. o147.5 points (+326)
Arkansas moneyline (-150): Give credit to coach John Calipari, who seems to be turning Arkansas around just in time. And against a gauntlet of a schedule, no less.
Six of the Razorbacks’ seven games this month have been against Quad 1-A opponents, as measured by BartTorvik.com. Arkansas went 3-3 in those games, and all three losses came by eight or fewer points.
One of the wins came against the Texas Longhorns, who Arkansas will see again tonight.
- Arkansas beat Texas, 78-70, on the road on Feb. 5.
- The score was misleadingly close. Arkansas took the lead less than four minutes into the game and never relinquished it, leading by as many as 23 in the second half.
Texas is 0-3 in Quad 1-A road matchups, as well as 2-5 in SEC road games this year.
Other parlay picks
BYU moneyline (-200): BYU kicked off its Big 12 schedule right this season, blasting the Arizona State Sun Devils, 76-56, on New Year’s Eve.
A lot of time has passed since then, but the Sun Devils haven’t done anything to change my perception of them. I expect another win for BYU in the rematch.
- Arizona State (13-14, 4-12 Big 12) has lost six of its past seven games. And the Sun Devils are just 5-7 at home this year.
- BYU (19-8, 10-6) has won four games in a row, as well as eight of 10.
- In their first head-to-head matchup, BYU held advantages in free throw attempts (+4), rebounds (+10) and assists (+6).
The Cougars can run up the score from inside or outside the arc. They have the fourth-highest effective FG% in NCAA Division I (57.4%), and they attempt 48.2% of all shots from 3-point range (14th-most in D-I).
Utah State/Boise State over 147.5 points (-143): If you’re staying up for this 10:30 p.m. tip-off, expect to see some offence.
- When Utah State and Boise State last matched up (Jan. 11), they both shot better than 50.0% from the floor in a game that totalled 160 points.
- Overs are collectively 28-23-2 for these teams.
- Both KenPom and Bart Torvik are projecting 155 total points for tonight’s matchup.
This should be a classic case of the offences simply being better than the defences.
According to KenPom, both teams rank inside the top 50 for adjusted offensive efficiency — and outside the top 50 for adjusted defensive efficiency.
A lot of shots were falling in their first matchup of the year, but if that’s not the case tonight, Utah State and Boise State have proven they can rack up points at the free-throw line.
Both teams rank inside the top 70 teams in free throw attempts per game.
Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET 02/26/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.