The Oklahoma City Thunder host their home opener tonight against the Atlanta Hawks, and I’ve got player props on both sides of the matchup.
The pregame narrative: Trae Young feasted on some plus matchups in his first two games of the year, but I think he’s worth fading on Sunday. As for OKC, I like Jalen Williams to find his scoring touch after some encouraging shot volume.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 27.
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Best Bet: CJ McCollum over 3.5 threes (-114)
Last season, for the first time in his 12-year career, McCollum fired more attempts from 3-point range than he did from 2-point range. And it worked out quite well.
McCollum shot 42.9% from beyond the arc on 8.4 attempts. That was the best 3PT% of his career, and it was the sixth-highest among players who attempted at least 3.5 threes per night.
So it shouldn’t surprise anyone that McCollum came out of the gate firing from deep in the first week of the new season. After a 5-for-11 effort in the opener, he followed up with a 4-for-9 showing on Friday.
Will he keep up that volume all year? Perhaps not, but he should have a green light right now to keep heaving — and not just because it’s going well.
Dejounte Murray, who averaged 7.1 attempted threes last year, is out for four-to-six weeks with a fractured hand. And Trey Murphy, who averaged 7.8 3PA, is sidelined with a hamstring strain.
The Trail Blazers don’t profile as a plus matchup for 3-point shooters, as their opponents last year shot just 35.1% from deep (third-lowest in the NBA).
But this is a sheer volume play for a stellar outside shooter, and 3.5 threes are well within his range.
Key stat: McCollum has cashed this number in three straight games against the Blazers, including their most recent matchup this past Friday.
Quick picks
Williams over 20.5 points (-125): Is there a Year 3 leap coming for Williams on a rising Oklahoma City Thunder squad?
It’s too soon to tell, but the shooting guard has already taken 38 shots in his first two games, which is fantastic volume for a points prop like this. He hasn’t found an efficient stroke yet, but I think that’ll happen tonight at home against the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta allowed the third-highest 3-point percentage last year (38.4%), as well as the third-most points to opposing shooting guards (23.7/game), per Betting Pros.
Williams shot 56.4% from the floor on OKC’s home court last year, which includes a blistering 45.0% from 3-point range.
Young under 36.5 points/assists (-118): Young has 30-plus points and 10-plus assists in both games so far, so you might be hesitant to fade him.
I get that, but it’s important to note that he had a pair of cupcake matchups at home against two hapless squads (Nets, Hornets). A road date against the Thunder is a much different ballgame.
OKC posted the fourth-best defensive rating last year while holding opposing point guards to the fourth-fewest PPG (22.9).
Over the two previous seasons, Young hit this under in three of four matchups against the Thunder.
Picks made at 10:00 a.m. on 10/27/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.