Tyler Herro and Joel Embiid headline Friday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Herro is the man on the Miami Heat these days, and I expect him to let it fly from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Embiid should pick up where he left off filling the basket and Chris Paul has value as a passer.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 7.
Best NBA prop bets
Best bet: Herro 4+ threes (-134)
With Jimmy Butler out of the picture, it’s officially Herro’s team in South Beach.
That’s mostly semantics, though, because basketball fans know the sixth-year guard has been the guy all season. Herro is having his best year as a scorer, posting career-highs in several key metrics:
- PPG: 23.9
- 3PA: 9.7
- 3PM: 3.8
He’s shooting with frequency and accuracy from beyond the arc and draws a solid matchup on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets.
Brooklyn allows the third-highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.6%) and is tied for allowing the 15th-most 3s per game (13.5).
Herro has cleared this mark in three of his last five games and attempted double-digit 3s in four of those contests.
He fell just shy of this line against the Nets on Jan. 25 when he went 3-for-6 from deep. I’m hoping to see a slight uptick in volume this evening.
Key stat: Herro has 4+ threes in 25 of 48 games (52.1%) this year.
Quick picks
Embiid over 29.5 points (-108): Maybe all the blockbuster trades spooked Embiid, or maybe he’s finally healthy. Either way, the big man is back in Philadelphia’s lineup — seemingly without a minutes restriction — and I want in.
Embiid returned from a month-long hiatus on Tuesday against the Dallas Mavericks and dropped 29 points in 36 minutes.
He shot 12-of-23 from the field and left some points on the table by going 4-of-9 from the charity stripe.
This should be a cinch if we get that type of run and volume from Embiid tonight.
- Embiid averaged 33+ points in each of the previous two seasons.
- He’s scored 27+ points in 8/10 games this season when playing over 30 minutes.
The Detroit Pistons, Friday’s opponent, give up the ninth-most PPG to opposing centres.
Paul over 7.5 assists (+100): This line seems way too low. Sure, De’Aaron Fox is on the San Antonio Spurs now, but it looks like Paul is still running point.
The veteran played 30 minutes on Wednesday with Fox in the lineup and logged nine helpers against the Atlanta Hawks.
He’s has seven-plus assists in eight straight games, clearing this line five times.
If anything, Fox is just another elite scorer for Paul to feed.
Picks made at 8:57 a.m. ET on 02/07/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.