One guard and two forwards are featured in Friday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Tyrese Haliburton draws a nice matchup against the Miami Heat and should be a threat to tally 10-plus assists. I expect Chet Holmgren and Kawhi Leonard to make their mark as scorers.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 28.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Holmgren over 17.5 points (-110)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are at their best when Holmgren is healthy, stretching the floor as a 7-footer with an enviable shooting stroke.
And that’s what we’re seeing right now.
After two and a half months on the shelf with a hip fracture, the second-year big man returned on Feb. 7 and was brought along somewhat slowly.
He isn’t playing back-to-backs, and he’s only crested the 30-minute mark twice through six games. But his results in the past three games are very encouraging:
- 20.3 PPG
- 57.9 FG%
- 50.0 3PT%
- 84.6 FT%
- 18+ points in all 3 games
Tonight’s matchup between the Thunder and the Atlanta Hawks has a projected total of 242 points. It should be fast-paced, and Holmgren should have ample opportunities to build on this offensive rhythm.
I considered backing Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-121) as my best bet, partially because the Hawks allow the fifth-most 3s per game. But given that Holmgren hasn’t attempted more than five 3s in any post-injury game, this felt a bit safer.
With a scoring touch from all over the floor, this is a number Holmgren should be able to clear.
Key stat: In his lone matchup against the Hawks this season, on Oct. 27, Holmgren scored 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting (6-for-8 from the free-throw line).
Best NBA picks
Haliburton over 9.5 assists (-106): After back-to-back years averaging double-digit assists, Haliburton has taken a step back this season.
Still, his 8.7 APG ranks fourth in the NBA, and he’s cranked up the passing volume lately.
- In his past five games, Haliburton has averaged 10.8 assists while logging 19.6 potential assists per game (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot).
- Last month, in his most recent matchup against the Heat, Haliburton racked up 15 assists.
Dating back to February 2023, Haliburton has cashed this prop in four of six matchups with Miami.
The Heat allow the fifth-most assists per game to opposing point guards (9.57), per Betting Pros.
Leonard over 1.5 threes (-163): Leonard has long been an accomplished 3-point shooter, it’s just that he doesn’t always take a bunch of shots from outside.
But he’s in enough of a groove right now that I’m looking to back him.
- In his past five games, Leonard has shot 12-for-25 (48.0%) from beyond the arc.
- He has 2+ threes in 4 of 5 games … and the outlier was a game where he didn’t attempt any 3s.
It’s too soon to have a full handle on the Los Angeles Lakers’ defensive profile with Luka Doncic, but the early returns show a team willing to yield more 3s to provide support around the rim.
Since Doncic’s first game as a Laker on Feb. 10, the team has allowed the third-most attempted 3s per game in the NBA.
Picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 02/28/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.