Neither Steph Curry nor Victor Wembanyama are playing tonight, and those situations influenced two of my Thursday night NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: In the late-night spot, I’m fading Brandin Podziemski from 3-point range in a tough matchup. But I do like the over on a pair of props involving Nikola Vucevic and Devin Booker.
Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 5.
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Best bet: Podziemski under 1.5 threes (-122)
Curry’s absence theoretically frees up plenty of 3-point shooting opportunities for his teammates. But I don’t expect much out of Podziemski from deep.
That’s partially because I don’t expect much out of the Golden State Warriors from the 3-point line as a whole.
Tonight’s opponents, the Houston Rockets, have put up stellar defensive numbers beyond the arc:
- 5th in 3PT% (34.3)
- 2nd in 3s allowed per game (11.9)
- 3rd in opponent attempted 3s per game (34.7)
Curry was out when the Warriors faced the Rockets last month. In that matchup, Podziemski went 0-for-3 from deep.
On the season, Podziemski is shooting just 20.6% from 3-point range. He was a 38.5% shooter from deep last year, but he still only averaged 1.2 makes due to low volume.
Buddy Hield is 22-for-41 (53.7%) from 3-point range in the four games Curry has missed this season. If anyone should be letting it fly for the Warriors tonight, it’s him.
Key stat: Podziemski has gone under 1.5 threes in 16 of 19 games, averaging 0.7 threes so far this season.
Quick picks
Booker over 10.5 rebounds and assists (+107): Booker is averaging 3.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists this year (10.4 RA), which puts him right in line with this number.
And given the juicy matchup he’ll see tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans, I think an over is well within reach.
New Orleans allows the second-most rebounds (7.4/game) and the second-most assists (5.3/game) to opposing shooting guards, per Betting Pros.
Booker has cashed this bet in nine of his past 16 games, amassing 11.2 RA in that span.
Vucevic over 20.5 points (-109): Tonight could be a huge night for Vucevic with Wembanyama sitting out for the San Antonio Spurs.
Last year, in his lone matchup against the Wemby-less Spurs, Vucevic had 24 points in 31 minutes. He also added 16 rebounds.
I don’t mind a points/rebounds prop for the 14th-year centre, but the points prop feels a bit safer.
Vucevic is averaging 20.9 PPG and will be able to operate without a 7-foot-4 menace guarding him in the paint.
Picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 12/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.