NBA opening night is just around the corner, so let’s dive into some futures bets.
The latest: No one came close to touching the Boston Celtics last season and they’re primed for another dominant run. I’m backing the defending champs to top the East alongside two win total picks and individual awards bets on Jonathan Kuminga and Victor Wembanyama.
Check out the best NBA futures bets to place ahead of the new season.
NBA futures
Best bet: Celtics to earn No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference (-125)
Boston finished 14 wins clear of the New York Knicks last year for the East’s top seed … 14!
I understand winning at a 78% clip isn’t sustainable and New York made some big offseason splashes, but come on. How much regression can we really expect?
The Celtics’ core remains completely intact. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown form one of the best one-two combos in the league while Derrick White and Jrue Holiday were good enough to make the U.S. Olympic team.
Kristaps Porzingis is a beast (when healthy) and the roster is loaded with useful depth players.
Realistically, only a few teams — including the Knicks — can challenge Boston for the East’s top spot. The Milwaukee Bucks are in that category, but I cannot trust that team with Doc Rivers at the helm. Another is the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they haven’t finished higher than fourth in the J.B. Bickerstaff era.
Boston’s net rating (+11.7) was more than double that of any other Eastern Conference team. Simply put: Don’t bet against these guys.
Best win total bets
Suns over 46.5 wins (-130): Can the Suns stay healthy? Because if they can, they should blow by this total.
Granted, that’s a big “if.”
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker played 75 and 68 games, respectively, last year. That’s a lot for star-calibre players in the modern NBA. Bradley Beal — the third piece of Phoenix’s “Big Three” — only played in 53 games.
Even with some injury misfortune, the Suns managed 49 wins.
Durant and Booker are still one of the most efficient scoring duos in the NBA, and that’s something I’m happy to bet on. A coaching change also inspires some confidence. Frank Vogel was fired after an embarrassing sweep in the first round of the playoffs and was replaced by Mike Budenholzer.
Coach Bud cleared this total in four of his final five seasons with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Raptors under 30.5 wins (-132): The Raptors are going to be awful, full stop.
This is a team focused on the draft lottery and not the play-in, which would be the ceiling if literally everything broke Toronto’s way.
Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are all solid players but depth doesn’t exist north of the border. Outside of those three players and Jakob Poeltl, nobody on the Raptors’ current roster averaged more than 10.0 PPG last season.
Toronto lost 15 straight games last season and ended with just 25 wins. The Raps play in the same division as the Celtics, Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers, which won’t help.
NBA futures: Top player props
Kuminga to win Most Improved Player (+1,000)
Last year, I backed Tyrese Maxey to win the NBA’s MIP at 14-to-1. It cashed. Sorry, I just had to do a little victory lap there.
I’m going back to that market again with Jonathan Kuminga.
The Golden State forward took a massive leap in his third year, averaging 16.1 points per game on 52.9% shooting. Mind you, he only played 26.4 minutes a night and was somehow getting benched in favour of Draymond Green.
I really can’t see that happening again, especially with Klay Thompson out of the picture.
The Warriors are going to need secondary scoring badly, and Kuminga is the guy to deliver. Playing with Steph Curry should help his case.
Wembanyama to record a 50-point game (+150)
I thought long and hard about recommending Wembanyama to win the Defensive Player of the Year at -200 but can’t get behind that price.
So let’s look at his offensive abilities, instead.
The 2023 No. 1 pick is borderline unguardable and averaged 21.4 points per game in his rookie season (while only playing 29.7 minutes a night). He scored 30-plus points 11 times and had 40 points once — against the defensively sound New York Knicks.
A 50-burger used to mean something in the NBA but not anymore.
There were 20 instances of players hitting the 50-point milestone last season, with guys like Malachi Flynn and Zach LaVine getting into the mix.
In my mind, this isn’t a matter of “if” for Wemby. It’s a matter of “when.”
NBA futures picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET on 10/14/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.