The NBA trade deadline is behind us and it was probably the craziest we’ve ever seen.
The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is a Laker, which has immediately vaulted Los Angeles into title contention. That was the biggest move by far but there was plenty of action across the league. Following a drastic reshuffle, I think it’s a good time to see who holds value to win it all.
Check out these three NBA Finals best bets post-trade deadline.
NBA Finals best bets
Best bet: Cleveland Cavaliers (+750)
The Cavaliers have been the league’s biggest surprise.
Entering play on Feb. 8, they own a 42-10 record with an Eastern Conference-best +10.0 net rating. If Cleveland keeps up the pace it’ll run away with the top seed and finish with 66 wins, tied for its best season ever (2008-09).
Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland make up an all-star backcourt with Evan Mobley joining in on the festivities after a breakout start to the season.
Jarrett Allen is a menace on the glass, and De’Andre Hunter (19.0 PPG) was brought in at the deadline to add even more scoring to a squad that owns the league’s best offensive rating (121.7).
The only knock on the Cavs is that this feels like it came out of nowhere.
Think of the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks as a comparison. They won 60 games only to be swept by LeBron James and Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals.
But there isn’t a LeBron-level force in the East to slow Cleveland. The Boston Celtics are favoured to win it all and have a stacked roster but are unlikely to have a home-court advantage.
Cleveland’s bench also has the third-best net rating in the league (+3.8), so I’m confident they can go toe-to-toe with the Celtics.
Best value play to win the NBA Finals
Denver Nuggets (+1,400)
Maybe it’s because they didn’t trade for anyone at the deadline, or maybe it’s because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to dethrone Nikola Jokic as MVP. Either way, it feels like no one is talking about the Nuggets.
Denver has quietly been on a tear to start the new year and it shouldn’t be ignored:
- 15-6 record
- 58.2 effective FG% (1st)
- +8.2 net rating (2nd)
- 121.3 offensive rating (3rd)
The Nuggets are rounding into form at the right time and have a roster laden with playoff experience.
SGA is having a legendary year, but no one can impact a game like Jokic.
He’s the ultimate X-factor and Denver is only one year removed from a title run where they lost four total playoff games. During that run, Jokic averaged 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists.
Last year, the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves bounced the Nuggets in seven. Those things can happen.
I’m bullish on Denver returning to form in the postseason.
A 100-to-1 long shot
Indiana Pacers (+10,000)
Do I think the Pacers will win the NBA Finals? Probably not. But they’re worth your attention at 100-to-1.
Indiana made the Eastern Conference Finals last year and I think that can happen again. At these odds, you would have tremendous value hedging out your position even if the Pacers were significant underdogs versus a team like the Boston Celtics.
The Pacers have been on a rampage to start the new year. They’re 13-3 with the fourth-best net rating and defensive rating in basketball.
We’ve always known Indiana could fill the basket but it’s really encouraging to see the team dial in on the other end of the court.
Pascal Siakam is a seasoned playoff performer and the Tyrese Haliburton-Andrew Nembhard backcourt has gotten better as the season’s gone on.
The Pacers are 17th in remaining strength of schedule and I expect these odds to shorten as the playoffs grow closer.
Picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 02/08/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.