It’s getaway day in MLB, with five afternoon games and just one evening matchup on tap.
The pregame narrative: In the evening, look for J.T. Realmuto to struggle against an emerging ace from the Atlanta Braves. Earlier on, I like Taylor Ward and Bobby Witt Jr. both to score a run.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 10.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Realmuto under 0.5 hits (+118)
Spencer Schwellenbach gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves tonight, and this pick is a way to back him as much as it’s a way to fade Realmuto.
Let’s give Schwellenbach some flowers first, after the right-hander started Year 2 by torching his first two opponents:
- 14.0 innings
- 0 runs
- 3 hits
- 14 Ks
Schwellenbach ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xERA, chase rate, whiff rate and walk rate, per Baseball Savant. So his stuff backs up the strong start.
So what chance does Realmuto have to do damage? In my opinion, not a great one.
The catcher is 7-for-31 (.226) with nine strikeouts to start the year, going hitless in four of nine games.
Schwellenbach has six pitch offerings, and I’m hoping he leans on his cutter against Realmuto. Last year, righties batted just 6-for-32 (.188) against Schwellenbach’s cutter.
Realmuto was just 3-for-24 (.125) against cutters in 2024.
Key stat: Schwellenbach has held right-handed hitters to a .187 BA so far in his career (263 plate appearances).
Best MLB picks
Witt over 0.5 runs (-112): My initial instinct was to back Witt over 1.5 bases, but his run prop price is actually a bit better. Both options look like smash plays to me.
Witt hasn’t set the world on fire yet, but he’s off to a solid start with a .255/.340/.426 slash line (122 OPS+). And now he’ll face a pitcher who he’s dominated in the past.
Against Twins right-hander Bailey Ober, Witt is 9-for-19 with two triples and a home run.
As a whole, the Royals’ active lineup has been a nightmare for Ober: 33-for-105 (.314 BA), .600 SLG, 19.5% K rate.
Ober coughed up 14 runs on 19 hits in 13.1 innings against the Royals last season.
From the No. 2 spot in Kansas City’s lineup, Witt is in an excellent position to score.
Ward over 0.5 runs (+112): I can’t sugarcoat Ward’s start to the season. It’s been pretty ugly.
But that’s why he has such a compelling price today on his runs prop. And a .523 OPS through 11 games isn’t going to deter me when the matchup is right.
Ward and the Angels face Rays right-hander Zack Littell, who hasn’t fared well against L.A.’s active lineup in the past:
- 62 plate appearances
- 19-for-53 (.358 BA)
- .642 SLG
Ward, who homered last night, is 2-for-5 with a walk against Littell.
His ability to succeed in this matchup, combined with the Angels’ overall success against Littell, gives me faith that the speedy outfielder can get it done.
MLB prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 04/10/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.