There are only two night games on Thursday, but I’ve got three MLB prop bets to cover the action.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Hunter Brown and Jacob deGrom meet up in the Lone Star State for what should be a pitcher’s duel, but Brown has had so-so results against Texas in the past. Later on, Freddie Freeman looks to continue mashing against a pitcher with mediocre-at-best stuff.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 15, featuring Wyatt Langford.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Langford over 0.5 runs (+125)
There were some bumps in the road during Langford’s rookie season, but he still turned in a 111 OPS+ season thanks to a stellar final month.
The 2023 fourth-overall draftee has built on that nicely, posting a .262/.349/.500 slash line (142 OPS+) so far in Year 2.
From the No. 2 spot in the Rangers’ lineup, Langford has the power, patience and speed to be a constant threat to score (rankings via Baseball Savant):
- 81st-percentile xSLG
- 76th-percentile walk rate
- 90th-percentile sprint speed
Astros starter Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA) is on a tear, and that doesn’t help our cause. But if anyone on the Rangers is going to break through, I’m expecting it to be Langford.
Especially since there are a couple of hitters behind Langford who’ve succeeded against Brown in the past.
Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien, who bat fourth and fifth for the Rangers, are 17-for-34 (.500) with two home runs and a double vs. Brown.
Key stat: Langford has scored six runs in his past five games and cashed this bet in six of his past 10.
Best MLB picks
Brown under 6.5 Ks (-138): It’s really tough to fade Brown based on the run he’s enjoying right now. But I think the buck stops here.
Brown has tallied nine strikeouts in four consecutive outings and is averaging 7.3 Ks per start so far.
But now he’s facing a Rangers squad that has been impressively stingy in the strikeout department — especially against Brown.
- Texas’ active lineup only has 15 Ks in 99 plate appearances vs. Brown (15.2 K%).
- Over the past two weeks, the Rangers have the third-lowest K rate in MLB (19.1%).
Brown went under 6.5 Ks in all three starts against Texas last season. He’s 13-8 to this under in 21 road starts since the beginning of 2024.
Freeman over 1.5 bases (-106): One of the many things to love about Freeman’s start to the season is that he’s mashing everything. No pitch group is spared.
- Fastballs: .409 BA, .727 SLG
- Breaking: .278 BA, .694 SLG
- Off-speed: .400 BA, .700 SLG
How do you attack this guy? I haven’t figured that out, nor have most MLB pitchers.
Athletics righty Osvaldo Bido will try his hand tonight. He’s had a rough go in his past four outings, allowing a collective .286/.344/.631 slash line to opposing hitters.
Bido throws all three fastball types to lefties a combined 60.7% of the time. LHHs are batting .302 with a .558 SLG against those offerings.
Freeman has proven he can hit anything, but fastballs seem to be the preferred choice. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in 17 of 32 games so far this year.
MLB prop picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 05/15/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.