I’m backing a trio of big bats to do damage in today’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Manny Machado and Gunnar Henderson are heating up, and face a pair of struggling arms. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt has been delivering for the New York Yankees and is playing in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.
See how I’m backing them in my best MLB prop bets for May 10.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Goldschmidt over 1.5 bases (-125)
Filling the Juan Soto hole is impossible, but Goldschmidt has been as advertised and then some for the Yankees.
The first baseman is slashing an incredible .345/.395/.486 in his first year with New York. He has the fourth-best batting average in baseball, and this is a perfect matchup for him to hit for power.
- Goldschmidt’s .501 xSLG, ranks in the 79th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
- He has three home runs in his last 10 games, clearing this line five times.
- Sutter Health Park, where the Athletics play, is the second-most hitter-friendly park in baseball, according to Baseball Savant’s park factor.
Goldschmidt is going up against lefty JP Sears, who has had a solid season.
The lefty sports a 2.92 ERA but has struggled to miss bats, ranking in the 36th percentile for K rate and ninth percentile for Whiff rate.
Key stat: Goldschmidt is batting an absurd .581 against LHP this year with eight extra-base hits in 31 at-bats (1.032 SLG).
More MLB picks
Henderson over 1.5 bases (-134): This is a steep price to pay for a bases prop, but it’s worth it.
Henderson is heating up after a slow start to the season, batting .342 with a .605 SLG in his last 10 games. He’s cleared this mark in five of those contests and hit a home run and a triple in yesterday’s win over the Los Angeles Angels.
Tonight, he goes up against Jack Kochanowicz, who has been getting torched all season.
- 5.79 ERA
- .294 opponent BA
- 1.7 HR/9
- 79 ERA+
Kochanowicz has given up a home run in four straight starts and will turn the ball over to a bullpen with the second-highest ERA (6.99) in MLB.
Machado 1+ RBI (-120): This seems like incredible value on Machado, who is red hot, and going up against an awful pitcher in a hitter-friendly environment.
Machado is batting .319 this season and has a hit in nine straight games. He has six RBI in that span, batting behind Fernando Tatis and Luis Arraez, both of whom are getting aboard at or above a .333 clip.
Bradley Blalock gets the ball for the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, and that’s good news for the San Diego Padres.
The righty has an 8.03 ERA after posting a 6.07 ERA last year.
MLB prop picks made at 11:42 a.m. ET on 05/10/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.