It’s getaway day in MLB, but I’m looking at some evening matchups for my prop picks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Spencer Strider is coming off a superb outing, but that still looks like an anomaly compared to the rest of his 2025 production. Elsewhere, Junior Caminero and Brent Rooker are both swinging hot bats and look to keep their production rolling.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 19.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Strider under 6.5 Ks (+123)
Is Strider back … or did he just have the good fortune of facing the Rockies?
Strider lost five consecutive starts to begin his 2025 season, posting a 5.40 ERA and 22.4% K rate in the process.
Then he faced Colorado, mowing down 13 batters (59.1 K%) in 6.0 scoreless innings.
That one dazzling start is skewing his numbers quite a bit, but I know the Rockies are a far more favourable matchup than tonight’s opponents, the Mets.
The Rockies have the second-highest K rate in the majors (26.5%). They also have MLB’s highest whiff rate vs. sliders (37.6%), according to Baseball Savant, and that is Strider’s primary put-away pitch.
The Mets, meanwhile, have the league’s fifth-lowest K rate (20.3%) and the third-lowest whiff rate against sliders (28.9%).
Familiarity is also on the Mets’ side, too. The current New York lineup has seen Strider for a combined 93 plate appearances, logging just a 21.5 K% in those opportunities. For context, the league-average K rate is 22.0%.
New York’s active lineup is 26-for-80 with a .563 SLG against Strider. So even if he’s somewhat efficient, the Mets could chase him from the game early.
Key stat: Prior to facing the Rockies, Strider went under 6.5 Ks in four of five starts.
Best MLB picks
Caminero over 1.5 total bases (+125): Caminero came alive last night to help the Rays overcome an eight-run deficit and beat the Orioles. He went 4-for-5 and drove in two.
The 21-year-old is now on quite the offensive run over his past 25 games:
- .323 BA
- .697 SLG
- 2.76 bases/game
- 2+ bases in 15 of 25
So far this month, he’s not even performing as well as Baseball Savant thinks he should be. That’s a scary thought for opposing teams.
Caminero has a .258 BA in June, versus a .290 xBA. He only has a 12.7 K% this month and is clearly seeing the ball well.
Rooker over 1.5 total bases (-108): Rooker is mashing lefties about as well as anyone this year. Backing him at home against a southpaw is typically a worthwhile play.
The A’s slugger has a .328/.426/.655 slash line against left-handers this season, good for a 203 wRC+ (fifth in MLB).
He’s also on a stellar run since May 22:
- .357 BA
- .602 SLG
- 2.27 bases/game
- 2+ bases in 13 of 26
The Athletics’ home field, Sutter Health Park, ranks as the second-friendliest offensive environment, per Baseball Savant.
Look for Rooker to let it fly with Astros rookie LHP Colton Gordon on the mound.
MLB prop picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 06/19/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.