Fernando Tatis Jr., Jacob deGrom and Willi Castro have my attention on Saturday’s MLB prop market.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Tatis isn’t doing his best work with the bat this month, but he’s offsetting that with a discerning eye at the plate. deGrom, meanwhile, has excelled at working deeper into games this season and should carve up the overmatched Chicago White Sox.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 14.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Castro over 0.5 hits (-134)
When a hitter is on the type of roll Castro is on, this pick feels too good to be true.
The switch-hitting utility man is on a six-game hit streak and has cashed this bet in 12 of 14 starts since May 27.
From that date onward, he’s 21-for-53 (.396) with a 1.230 OPS.
So why is this price so good? It’s safe to say it has a lot to do with the guy on the mound.
Astros starter Hunter Brown is shoving this season. He ranks third in ERA (1.82), fourth in opponent BA (.187) and fifth in K rate (31.1%).
That’s daunting, but I’m heartened by Castro’s success in this head-to-head matchup. He’s 7-for-11 with a double against Brown.
It’s likely that Castro will have an at-bat or two against Houston’s bullpen as well, but his past success vs. Brown puts this over the edge and makes me feel great about the pick.
Key stat: Castro has recorded a hit in 33 of 48 starts (68.8%).
Best MLB picks
Tatis over 0.5 runs (-134): Arizona’s Zac Gallen has been very gettable recently, and I think Tatis can add to that notion tonight.
Gallen (4-8, 5.15 ERA) has allowed 52 baserunners in 35.0 innings over his past six starts. He has a 6.17 ERA in that span.
Tatis, the leadoff man for the Padres, went 2-for-3 with a walk and a double in Friday’s series opener in Arizona. He has a .396 on-base percentage this month and is 6-5 vs. this prop.
Against Gallen, Tatis has reached base in nine of 21 plate appearances (.429 OBP) with two home runs and a double.
Though Tatis’ bat isn’t particularly hot right now, he’s quite capable of working a walk or two. And Gallen leads the NL in walks issued (36).
deGrom over 6.5 Ks (-154): I don’t love the juice on this prop, and that’s the reason I don’t have it featured as my best bet. But there’s still a lot to like.
- deGrom is 4-2 vs. this line in his past six starts.
- deGrom has 22 strikeouts in 50 plate appearances against the White Sox (44.0 K%).
- The White Sox have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB over the past two weeks (25.4 K%).
deGrom has an 8.7 K/9 this season, which is the lowest of his career. But he’s consistently working deep enough into games that that isn’t a huge concern to me.
He’s averaging 17.6 outs per start, which is just south of six innings. And he’s worked into the sixth inning or later in nine of his past 10.
Also, deGrom ranks in the 84th percentile in whiff rate and the 86th percentile in chase rate. He still has elite stuff, even if the strikeout efficiency is down in 2025.
MLB prop picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 06/14/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.